Christmas Day Forecast 2013
With Christmas just over a week away, many are wondering if they'll get to take their new toys out into any decent surf (Swellnet makes no promises when it comes to getting a new stick for Chrissie).
Unfortunately for much of Australia the forecast isn't too flash with the surf not expected to get above 2ft.
Starting on the East Coast, small levels of background E'ly trade-swell isn't likely to top 2ft while the Southern NSW Coast will see a weaker S/SE windswell in the wake of a southerly change Monday afternoon/evening.
Victoria should see a small to moderate south-westerly groundswell filling in but conditions will be a little off with a lingering onshore breeze in the wake of a shallow change Tuesday evening.
South Australia will be small and average with south-east winds, favouring more remote areas across the state, while at this stage Western Australia looks to offer the best waves with the arrival of a new W/SW groundswell under morning S/SE winds.
And lastly in Tassie, the lack of swell on the mainland will extend to the Apple Isle with nothing signficant expected.
The reason for much of the country's poor outlook is a large blocking high across South Australia with another weaker system sitting west of Western Australia, deflecting cold fronts away from us down towards Antarctica.
Then on the East Coast another blocking high will put a cap on any significant storms forming through the weekend before being pushed northward by a weak surface trough moving up the Southern NSW Coast Monday afternoon.
The longer term outlook into the end of the year is looking more promising across the entire country with some decent trade-swell on the cards for the East Coast while the southern states should see a series of cold fronts moving in bringing increased swell activity.
Comments
Its only Jesus's Birthday,
Enjoy the festive Season.
Have a swim :)
This is a good opportunity to record the surf forecast model output seven days out, and see what happens.
Sunshine Coast: 2ft E/NE all day with light NE tending E'ly winds.
Gold Coast: 2ft E/NE all day with light N/NE tending E/NE winds.
Ballina: 1ft NE, 1-2ft NE facing beaches all day with light NW winds tending NE.
Yamba: 1ft NE, 1-2ft NE facing beaches all day with light W/SW winds tending NE.
Coffs Harbour: 1ft S, building to 1-2ft S facing beaches with light S/SW winds tending NE.
Port Macquarie: 1ft S/SW, 1-2ft S facing beaches with light to moderate N/NE winds.
Newcastle: 1ft S, 2ft S facing, easing a little during the day. Light SE winds tending E/SE.
Central Coast: 1ft S, 2ft S facing, easing a little during the day. Light SE winds tending E/NE.
Northern Beaches: 1ft S, 1-2ft S facing, easing a little during the day. Light SE winds tending E/NE.
Eastern Beaches: 1ft S, 1-2ft S facing, easing a little during the day. Light SE winds tending E/NE.
Cronulla: 1ft S, 1-2ft S facing, easing a little during the day. Light SE winds tending E/NE.
Wollongong: 1ft S, 1-2ft S facing, easing a little during the day. Light E/SE winds tending E/NE.
Phillip Island: 2-3ft SW, light SE winds freshening a little during the day.
Mornington Peninsula: 3ft SW, light SE winds freshening a little during the day from the S/SE.
Barwon Heads: 2ft SW, light SE winds freshening a little during the day from the S/SE.
Torquay: 2ft SW, light SE winds freshening a little during the day from the S/SE.
Warrnambool: 3ft SW buikding to 3-4ft during the day, light SE winds freshening a little during the day.
Middleton: 1-2ft S/SW building a little during the day, moderate SE winds tending fresh S/SE.
Mid Coast: 0.5ft SW, light to moderate SE winds.
Margaret River: 3ft W/SW, light S/SE winds tending S.
Mandurah: 1ft W/SW, moderate S winds tending S/SW.
Perth: 1ft W/SW building a little during the day, moderate S winds tending S/SW.
Geraldton: 2ft SW building to 2-3ft, moderate S winds tending S/SW.
South Arm: 1ft+ SW, building a little during the day, light W/NW winds tending W/SW.
St Helens: 1ft NE, building to 1-2ft at S facing beaches, light N/NW winds tending moderate N/NE.
Should we put bets on it? Winner gets a christmas ham!
Feck me, nothing over 3ft for around the entire country!!!! Geezus!!!! That is bad!!
And not just for Christmas Day, Don. Looks like an entire week of mediocrity ahead right around the country.
Hey guys can you ay least get it to 1ft for the mid christmas day? The kids are getting foamy's and are gonna be frothing to try them out!
Looking just perfect for me. My three year old just asked if I can take him surfing during the hols. Got the longboard, got the floatie vest, and now got the ideal wave conditions - almost flat!
Haven't been surfing that much in the last couple of months, just poor conditions and no time in the odd moments when it was good, working too hard.
No I'm on hols for a good stretch, and the first week and a bit just looks like nothing. I'm seriously hoping for some swell through January, I've got a good part of it off and would like nothing more than spending far too much time in the water.
Ben, Craig, I'm looking at you.
Best wishes for the season to the swellnet gentlemen, (and any women if there are any!) Hope you get some too.
Best wishes to you also Batfink, couple of positive signs starting to show, but we'll see.
cmon brokensha................more on the positive signs..!
Sorry, I'm just looking for any sign of hope, and a very weak MJO signal moving into our region is just that. Initially looks to generate a cyclone off NW WA, but we'll wait and see.
not sure what halucinogen's you guys are on ...........
but Santa's Oceanic sack hasn't looked this good on a long while 'round some parts .
as good as it gets , admittably beaches only but condsidering its Summer 6ft and offshore is just like xmas ..... hang on its is .....
confirmation has your own local forecasts confirming ..... do you you check your own site ???
Of course Southey, and Vicco's exposed coasts are now looking great on Christmas Day, this was done 8 days out.
There was always going to be some small change, East Coast looks the same, while the Southern states have a bit more swell to play with.
craig, whats your forecast for the syd Hobart yacht race ?
Been watching very closely, as these are events I feel I can try and capitalise on as a meteorologist.
But I have to say this year is really tricky.
With that low/trough deepening off Sydney and then moving east away from the coast it looks like headwinds will ease at some stage during the late afternoon/evening as the boats head down the coast.
Once they hit the Far South Coast though they'll see good 15-20kt head winds and steam into the Bass Strait crossing.
From then onwards though they'll have to hit some dead water ahead of a weak S'ly, but then this S'ly will ease into Friday evening ahead of a stiff N'ly as they make their way up the Derwent.
I'm leaning towards No Race Record, but I think it's going to be closer than the market currently depicts.