COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

blindboy wrote:

I have no fear of the disease at all. I will take reasonable precautions and am very healthy for my age, still surfing 3-5 days a week and with no existing risk conditions. If I get it I get it. If it gets me, oh well I have had a great life can't complain really.
My real concern is that fuckwits undermining the vaccination program will cause unnecessary deaths.

I’m having trouble understanding this huge movement that’s undermining the vaccination rollout , the majority is vaccinated, what’s the problem ? In Australia anyway , are you worried about other countries ?

We need children to be vaccinated and there has been a lot of misinformation about that here.

So you believe hundreds or thousands of people and children will die if the children aren’t vaccinated ? Is that what you’re thinking ? Do you get really angry when people don’t get a flu shot when flu season comes around ?

Fear is a disease as much as covid

As far as I know no-one has posted misinformation about flu shots here. My wider concern is that Swellnet is now a significant source of misinformation within the surfing community. This began with climate change, spread into politics through the Trump years and then focused on the pandemic. I am not talking about differing opinions I am talking about a long term increasing pattern of distortions, misinformation and lies driven by a toxic ideology. Hence Swellchan. I consider the total absence of responsibility by its proprietors and employees to be reprehensible. That is why I am here. We deserve better.

blindboy wrote:

As far as I know no-one has posted misinformation about flu shots here. My wider concern is that Swellnet is now a significant source of misinformation within the surfing community. This began with climate change, spread into politics through the Trump years and then focused on the pandemic. I am not talking about differing opinions I am talking about a long term increasing pattern of distortions, misinformation and lies driven by a toxic ideology. Hence Swellchan. I consider the total absence of responsibility by its proprietors and employees to be reprehensible. That is why I am here. We deserve better.

Well if that’s how you choose to spend your time in retirement .

It was part of my career also beginning with the religious ratbags trying to undermine the evidence for evolution, then there have been decades of the well funded efforts of the climate change deniers.

Supafreak wrote:

So you believe hundreds or thousands of people and children will die if the children aren’t vaccinated ? Is that what you’re thinking ? Do you get really angry when people don’t get a flu shot when flu season comes around ?

"This began with climate change, spread into politics through the Trump years and then focused on the pandemic. I am not talking about differing opinions I am talking about a long term increasing pattern of distortions, misinformation and lies driven by a toxic ideology. "

Yeah you're right bb, but it was you talking all the bullshit during the Trump years, you forgotten all your Russia lies?

"We need children to be vaccinated"

No, we don't. At all. And to hear you constantly banging on about it with absolutely no compromise is scary.

blindboy wrote:

As far as I know no-one has posted misinformation about flu shots here. My wider concern is that Swellnet is now a significant source of misinformation within the surfing community. This began with climate change, spread into politics through the Trump years and then focused on the pandemic. I am not talking about differing opinions I am talking about a long term increasing pattern of distortions, misinformation and lies driven by a toxic ideology. Hence Swellchan. I consider the total absence of responsibility by its proprietors and employees to be reprehensible. That is why I am here. We deserve better.

You deserve a kick in the pants you insufferable wanker.

Get over yourself. The sole bearer of truth….FFS.

blindboy wrote:

As far as I know no-one has posted misinformation about flu shots here. My wider concern is that Swellnet is now a significant source of misinformation within the surfing community. This began with climate change, spread into politics through the Trump years and then focused on the pandemic. I am not talking about differing opinions I am talking about a long term increasing pattern of distortions, misinformation and lies driven by a toxic ideology. Hence Swellchan. I consider the total absence of responsibility by its proprietors and employees to be reprehensible. That is why I am here. We deserve better.

The basic tenet of this post is why I nolonger bother reading the vast majority of comments on anything to do Covid, the USA, indigenous affairs and AU politics, no wait, let’s just say the majority of comments on all non surfing topics, it’s so so predictable and boring this conspiracy crap.

Spot on GS.

BB, ever considered the possibility that the beliefs you’re trying to police my prove to be incorrect?

You might then say “but i have the science and medicine of the day behind me.”

But then have you considered the possibility that 500 years ago people believed their science and medicine with the same conviction as we believe in ours right now. In 500 years the fate of our current science and medicine will most likely be the same as that of 500 years ago.

There is nothing special about the beliefs of the current moment in time; they’re as arbitrary and incorrect as what they were 500 years ago. I wouldn’t take them too literally.

burleigh wrote:

I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead body

It’s so common that MRIs to help diagnose myocarditis resulting from mRNA vaccines will be added to the Medical Benefits Scheme (Medicare) from 1 Jan 2022..

goofyfoot wrote:

"This began with climate change, spread into politics through the Trump years and then focused on the pandemic. I am not talking about differing opinions I am talking about a long term increasing pattern of distortions, misinformation and lies driven by a toxic ideology. "

Yeah you're right bb, but it was you talking all the bullshit during the Trump years, you forgotten all your Russia lies?

"We need children to be vaccinated"

No, we don't. At all. And to hear you constantly banging on about it with absolutely no compromise is scary.

+1

And it is really about differing opinions, a forum without differing opinions is pretty much pointless.

Some people just beleive they are bearers of the truth and anything that doesn't align with their views needs to be shut down...kind of sad really.

gsco. Mate come on, we aren't living in the Middle Ages, and medical research has grown a fair bit since the days of witch burning.
BB's medical opinions are very consistent with the vast majority of experts who do trials which are then peer reviewed.
BB's opinions aren't controversial and there's an extremely good chance that they are right.
The other side of the argument, pushed by the anti-vaxxers simply doesn't stack up. These people have zero medical training, and zero evidence to back up their arguments. That's why they are so quick to resort to ridiculous conspiracy theories.
I know who I believe, and it isn't the nutters making patently wrong claims that covid isn't a problem and vaccinations are poison, and backing up their argument with a Youtube video from a comedian.
FFS, I'm so over this age of ignorance where online fucking idiots think their feelpinions are more important than experts who have spent years doing disciplined research at universities and hospitals.

"Some people just beleive (sic) they are bearers of the truth and anything that doesn't align with their views needs to be shut down...kind of sad really."
ID. I'm happy to tolerate all types of profoundly stupid opinions unless they are a danger to other people.
For example, if some plonker wants to say bike helmets are stupid, I couldn't give a fuck, because he or she is only a danger to themselves.
Covid misinformation, anti vax bullshit, and racism doesn't just impact the idiot posting it. It has consequences for other people who don't push stupid ides. Publishing opinions that are dangerous to other people should be shut down. Free speech does have limitations.

VL from what i understand Pfizer did all their research with their own scientists, and refuse to release the research findings to the wider scientific community. If i'm wrong feel free to correct me, but if that's the case, and the science that Pfizer have conducted in house hasn't been put out in the wider scientific community, is that science you can consider hole proof?
And while i'm on the subject, what's your honest thoughts on their history, regarding paying out the largest criminal lawsuit in US history??(for false and misleading information....not to mention the other 71 penalties imposed on them. You think they'd learn after one act of misconduct!!??)

What are you talking about bluediamond? Their vaccine studies have been extensively peer reviewed which involves releasing the findings to the wider scientific community for scrutiny. If you are talking about a specific incident, or a specific case of data being withheld, you will need to provide more details.
Of course drug companies use in-house scientists to review their drugs. This is not unusual.
Not sure what you are talking about re "largest criminal lawsuit in US history". If it's the 2004 case, they deserve the fine. Not sure that that's even relevant to the current discussion re vaccines.

ahh is that right? My misunderstanding and apologies. Could you provide me some kind of link to the releasing of information to the wider scientific community because i'm not across this part of it at all and not sure where to find it. Cheers.

Because from what i understand, i'm gonna have to wait til my 100th birthday to celebrate the releasing of this data...
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/wait-what-fda-wants-55-years-pr...
But yep, it's a Saturday night, i could be completely misreading it, correct me if i'm wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/25/pfizer-covid-vaccine-94-ef...
Peer reviewing involves the release of information and data from studies and trials to other researchers so it can be analysed, scrutinised and judged. Nobody can peer review data that isn't released. One requires the other.

Yes BD, you're getting it hopelessly wrong. Pfizer are not refusing to release the data from their studies. It's a FOI request to the FDA.

Again, it's a Saturday night, and apologies as i might be misreading this, but from the link you provided above, it has nothing to do with the development of the vaccine and the science involved in it. This seems to just be a case study peer review. Not sure we're on the same page here regarding the science.
BTW, for what it's worth, how's Israel faring now with their 4 jabs? has that one been reviewed recently?

oh ok, so let me get this straight......somewhere along the chain of commands, someone won't release the information. And Pfizer has their own scientists? They developed the vaccine? They sold the vaccine at exhorbitant prices to rich nations of the world in huge quantities, and....someone.....refuses to release the information to.....um....who again? I'm a little confused VL. Saturday.

Vic Local wrote:

" I'm happy to tolerate all types of profoundly stupid opinions unless they are a danger to other people.
For example, if some plonker wants to say bike helmets are stupid, I couldn't give a fuck, because he or she is only a danger to themselves.

Hate to split hairs VL ,, but I think your 'give a fuck meter' needs adjusting.
So ,how does that work when it comes to correcting misinformation ? Are they not still encouraging 'misinformation' that could 'potentially' lead to more people not wearing helmets and suffering harm ,if not fatal injuries..?
Also what about the trauma individuals might suffer from accidentally killing or hurting a helmet less person in a traffic accident., ?
Are they really just a danger to themselves ?

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/wait-what-fda-wants-55-years-pr...
this article seems to explain it a little clearer

Oh look, they can't process it for 55 years,....because they only have 10 employees working in that specific section....in the middle of a time when millions of people are affected by Covid and the vaccine mandates. 10 people. Don't reckon they could maybe bump up their staffing?? Surely this is a cop out.

VL?? Thoughts??

From the article I posted earlier

"Pfizer is testing three doses of its COVID-19 vaccine in babies and preschoolers after the usual two doses didn't appear strong enough for some of the children. "
"Pfizer and its partner BioNTech said if the three-dose study is successful, they plan to apply for emergency authorisation sometime in the first half of 2022."

oh but wait!! Fear not! It seems the 10 employees are bloody efficient!! Behold!
“This 108-day period is the same amount of time it took the FDA to review the responsive documents for the far more intricate task of licensing Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine,” wrote Aaron Siri of Siri & Glimstad in New York and John Howie of Howie Law in Dallas in court papers.
VL. Surely you can see this isn't right. I'm not having a go at you my friend, i'm just pointing out that there are some seriously obvious flaws in the system that i think all of us should stand up and take notice of and discuss. This actually defies belief in my opinion.

Omicron "South African reinfecting Variant sounds eerily familiar!"
Time to trace the Covid family tree back to similar creepy Aunts or Uncles !

How freaky is this...
Jan- Brazil reinfection case was the first reported SA Beta "Escape Mutation" (Pre Vax)
"Existing Vaxes can and should be updated to counter new strains without recourse to phased trials!"

Jan/Feb Israel recorded 3 reinfections with, then same SA Beta Variant.
57 y/o Israeli man was (reinfected) with SA Beta variant after a visit to Turkey.
More importantly, he was in a critical condition...meaning, a possibly more severe infection on 2nd time?
Of note! Timing > unvaxed Phase 2 > pre [Green Card]
Pre Rollout Variants were much slower...today's Mass Vax immune escapees will ramp reinfections!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/south-african-israel-va...

16 Feb 2021 Quote : " Variant/s have spurred concerns that vaccination campaigns might not be enough to stem future, potentially more severe waves of infection and might further delay country's plans to lift restrictions on public life." (That sounds like Dec 2021 )
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/13/reinfection-south-africa...

So how did South Africa nuke their reinfectious Beta
Best performing (Pre Omicron) Reinfection Variant Vaxes *Chinese Inactivated Virus Vaxes (Order)
*Sinopharm BIBP > *Coronavac > *Covaxin > Sputnik V > Pfizer > J&J > Novavax > Moderna > AZ

Sinopharm BIBP (Inactivated Virus) neutralisation reduction was limited to 1.6 fold for Reinfective VOC.
mRNA vaxes drop a whopping 6 fold efficacy against Reinfective strain Beta +(re: AZ Dud Recall)
Sinopharm BIBP was subsequently rolled out in Zimbabwe / Morocco / Egypt / Seychelles

Guessing up till now these are the only Real Time / Real World Trials of reinfection Vax in the Field.

1st Nov TGA recognises these same *Chinese Inactivated Vaccines

Reinfections have remained stable in all other Variants from Beta until Omicron.

Just clarifying! We're not talking about waning breakthrus from previous strain recovery > immunity.
We're dealing with an impossible real time reinfection of 3x > now 5.4x magnitude...
Scientists are comparing Omicron to a dangerous Cold like virus that reinfects back 2 back.

(Meaning...many are likely back 2 back same work site or School infections)
One must consider that Quarantine is no more relevant than 1 day/Week/Month/Year!
Each person presents equally open to infection > [VIPs Passes / City / Air Travel ] > Off limits.
We actually read about Cities / Nations locking down as we speak...here too being most likely!
tbb's state of Qld never made it past open day without a backpedalling Omicron Mask Mandate.

Latest News is Omicron provides as little as 19% natural immunity against reinfection.
Double vaxed around the same 20% > Boosters drop 90% in efficacy within 2 wks > gone by 3 mths
Pretty much tear up any Fake VIP Mandate...(All in this together!) OMG...That spells WAR.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/12/17/how-omicron-eva...

$ Gazillion Rollout > 3x covid / 2x death + WR Hospital Crisis = Mandated 2mth 10% Shopper Docket

Now we got WR Vax Leak > WR Covid > WR Closures > WR Mandates > WR Minority Discrimination

Experts infected & killed off everything, sold our world for a VIP Wacky Race race thru a Shoe Shop!

Expert advice...Ya just extend the expiry date on yer [ Use by Dec 2019 ] Wuhan Flu Cough Drops!
Very Sciency & Good Health Advice...everyone must keep doin' that or pay the WR Fine & then go to Jail!

l-immunity-vaccination-and-monoclonal-antibody-treatments/?sh=4fd8412c60e0
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/03/omicron-covid-variant-de...

I mean, when you really seriously put your thinking caps on and think about it, 55 years should be just about sufficient time for those at the helm (pfizer and co) of rolling out these untrialled ever in the history of mankind, experimental Mrna vacccines.... to live out their last years and never be held to account, guessing most of those involved are over the age of 25-35+. And even if a court case comes up in 55 years...they can drag it out til death. Can't wait for the first 500 pages of information this year. What will it be. An index table? Next month, a 500 page introduction.....phone numbers of participants involved. You could drag this shit out for 55 years until no one cares anymore. This surely has to be becoming obvious even to our most ferocious vaccination advocates. We're all in this together. It's not us against each other. It's us looking out for each other. Surely?

"The TGA ensures that vaccine manufacturers meet manufacturing quality standards.

Sometimes a ‘provisional approval pathway’ is needed for the temporary registration of promising new medicines and vaccines — where the need for early access outweighs any risks".

Exactly what happened with Covid.

https://www.ncirs.org.au/phases-clinical-trials

The important caveat.

"However, as there are limited safety data, full registration of the vaccine will only be given after extended safety monitoring, which will take several years (refer to Figure 2)".

The trials are ongoing and the original release didn't even factor in booster shots.

Only hindsight knows.

Vic Local wrote:

gsco. Mate come on, we aren't living in the Middle Ages, and medical research has grown a fair bit since the days of witch burning.
BB's medical opinions are very consistent with the vast majority of experts who do trials which are then peer reviewed.
BB's opinions aren't controversial and there's an extremely good chance that they are right.
The other side of the argument, pushed by the anti-vaxxers simply doesn't stack up. These people have zero medical training, and zero evidence to back up their arguments. That's why they are so quick to resort to ridiculous conspiracy theories.
I know who I believe, and it isn't the nutters making patently wrong claims that covid isn't a problem and vaccinations are poison, and backing up their argument with a Youtube video from a comedian.
FFS, I'm so over this age of ignorance where online fucking idiots think their feelpinions are more important than experts who have spent years doing disciplined research at universities and hospitals.

In 500 years time most of the current historical moment will likely be looked back upon as we look at the dark ages. Most of our current beliefs and events will likely be viewed as unimportant, insignificant and non-influential. Future humans will be bewildered at how wrong we've got many things. They'll raise their eyebrows at the importance and meaning we attach to the current historical moment and to ourselves.

The other "side" of the argument (it's multidimensional, not boolean) is not just anti-vax nutters and conspiracy theory whackjobs. There's also intelligent, highly educated, thoughtful, original, insightful and moderate people out there with genuine concerns and questions and wonderings about the current events, who do not have vested political or commercial or ideological interests in these events, and who are able to step back and disconnect from getting caught up in and being fused with the current events and mindset, and put things into a wider historical and intellectual context.

Just one example.

Don't t tell me this guy isn't qualified to go against the zeitgeist.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-aussie-doctor-warns-against-you...

Yeah I’d be listening to him over the “we need kids to be vaccinated” voices on swellnet

gsco, we constantly make decisions based on the limited information available to us. That's life. Speculating about how those decisions might be viewed in the future is pointless. If we look back at any period for which we have sufficient evidence, we find the same forces that have played out in the pandemic. There has always been a contest between the rational and the irrational in human affairs. And yes rational behaviour based on limited, or incorrect information can lead to bad decisions but any reading of history suggests that it does much better than the alternative. In the case of this pandemic we have had a huge amount of relevant information as well as the technology and social structures necessary to take effective action. In Australia, the decision making was predominantly rational. In the US that was less true and they suffered for it. My point is that having got this far by trusting the relevant science and expert opinion based on it we would be foolish to change track now.
We have just shifted from a top down management of lockdowns etc to a situation in which people need to take responsibility for their own health. In these circumstances it is important that anyone offering health advice should stick to passing on expert opinion. To do otherwise is contemptible arrogance. To do otherwise in service to the toxic ideology that drives numerous commentators here, is to fall in with the scumbag barbarians currently battering our democracy.

goofyfoot why not listen to the vast majority of experts across all relevant fields now stating that child vaccination is necessary? Why prefer the one dissenting voice? That link also dates back to before the latest US data showing only 8 mild cases of myocarditis in 5 million doses.

blindboy wrote:

gsco, we constantly make decisions based on the limited information available to us. That's life. Speculating about how those decisions might be viewed in the future is pointless. If we look back at any period for which we have sufficient evidence, we find the same forces that have played out in the pandemic. There has always been a contest between the rational and the irrational in human affairs. And yes rational behaviour based on limited, or incorrect information can lead to bad decisions but any reading of history suggests that it does much better than the alternative. In the case of this pandemic we have had a huge amount of relevant information as well as the technology and social structures necessary to take effective action. In Australia, the decision making was predominantly rational. In the US that was less true and they suffered for it. My point is that having got this far by trusting the relevant science and expert opinion based on it we would be foolish to change track now.
We have just shifted from a top down management of lockdowns etc to a situation in which people need to take responsibility for their own health. In these circumstances it is important that anyone offering health advice should stick to passing on expert opinion. To do otherwise is contemptible arrogance. To do otherwise in service to the toxic ideology that drives numerous commentators here, is to fall in with the scumbag barbarians currently battering our democracy.

goofyfoot why not listen to the vast majority of experts across all relevant fields now stating that child vaccination is necessary? Why prefer the one dissenting voice? That link also dates back to before the latest US data showing only 8 mild cases of myocarditis in 5 million doses.

That figure of 8 cases in children will increase as more ‘ reporting ‘ and data becomes available. BB you haven’t said much about the 3 deaths in Vietnam If omicron is proven with out doubt to be less virulent, what then happens to the risk and benefit scale ?

"To do otherwise in service to the toxic ideology that drives numerous commentators here, is to fall in with the scumbag barbarians currently battering our democracy".

Fuck off you goose.

Your are now just a tin foil hat wearing wanna be dictator.

supa, it sounds like a bad batch. There were 17 serious reactions including the 3 deaths from 120 doses from the same batch. Nothing, as far as I can find, from the rest of the 3.5 million doses. I can't find anything more on it but yes it would be concerning if it was a quality control issue at Pfizer rather than a local error in storage or handling which the evidence suggests since any quality control issue would almost certainly have shown up elsewhere given the very large number of doses administered globally.

"In these circumstances it is important that anyone offering health advice should stick to passing on expert opinion."

Like this you mean? From the bloke who avoided lockdown to root his mistress...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/17075146/neil-ferguson-warns-covid-death...

Or maybe this one?

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2021/12/17/omicron-isnt-a-killer-south-a...

Everyone has placed their bets and the horses are running.

See you on the other side.

gsco. Sure there are various extremes re the vaccine DEBATE but when it comes to real action it's a binary situation. You either take it or you don't. The medical outcomes for a tin foil hat wearing nutter are exactly the same as a person who takes a much more nuanced position to refuse the vax.
Either way, refuseniks have a stunning ability to ignore the overwhelming evidence that vaccines save lives.

This is only 2 days old and from a mainstream left rag.

If they are still at this stage in knowing what dose to give kids to get immunity, how on earth can they know other effects of the vaccine on young growing kids bodies?

It's clearly early days.

With how low the risk of Covid is to kids IMHO it would be irresponsible to have a young kid vaccinated at this stage, even if you are going to get your kid vaccinated waiting a few months would be sensible.

"Pfizer's child-sized vaccine fails to produce expected immunity in younger kids; company adds third dose to trials

Vaccine maker Pfizer said Friday that trials of its vaccine in children ages 2 to 5 show that it did not provide the expected immunity in kids this age, and it is adding a third dose to the regimen.

The company decided to add the third dose for all children and babies ages 6 months to 5 years after its independent outside advisers took a look at the data so far.
It showed that two child-sized doses of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine were not producing the expected immunity in the 2- to 5-year-olds, although they were doing so for the babies up to age 2."

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-children/index....

Child covid deaths in the US are now over 800. How many child deaths do you think are acceptable in Australia? Given the US population is roughly 10 times larger and the virus is now spreading exponentially, leaving children unvaccinated would result in many dying.
https://www.google.com/search?q=usa+pediatric+deaths+from+covid+19&oq=US...

Rags?

Get your own words info, there are only one type of media rags and it’s the Murdoch rags .... as established here years ago when I quoted what my grandmother used to call the herald sun

By the way paraphrasing Einstein.

" It doesn't take hundreds of scientists to prove me wrong, just one with evidence".

blindboy wrote:

Child covid deaths in the US are now over 800. How many child deaths do you think are acceptable in Australia? Given the US population is roughly 10 times larger and the virus is now spreading exponentially, leaving children unvaccinated would result in many dying.
https://www.google.com/search?q=usa+pediatric+deaths+from+covid+19&oq=US...

No one can answer this question BB , you are also failing to recognise that omicron will be the dominant strain in Australia . The US is still largely dealing with delta which’ MAY ‘ be more virulent than omicron which ‘ MAY ‘ be nothing more than a headache and bit crook for a few days in healthy young Australian kids .

.