COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

You seem to do ok BB.

NSW considers shortening Covid booster shot interval to four months as Omicron spreads. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/nsw-considers-shortening-c...

The Australian Military and Health Officials want Australians to purchase Their Family & Friends a booster shot online as a Christmas gift!

You couldn’t make this stuff up 🥴 #auspol pic.twitter.com/NcpV1OMIaz

— DIOGO COHEA (@DiogoCohea) December 17, 2021

Real talk.

Now is the perfect time to PANIC!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospita...

Omicron has the same hospitalisation rates as the flu.

That is all that matters.

blindboy wrote:

Sorry focus, sarcasm is tricky online!

Likely more to do with my un-interested year 10 education.

https://fb.watch/9Z3IVwZz_A/. Taj Burrow , parents with questions

.

Ex-pro surfer too lazy to find the answers to any question he wants to ask and using his credibility to undermine public health? Just another fuckwit in my book. There is enough information there for parents to make up their mind whichever way they want to go. The innumerate paranoids can wait if they want. So next time I want some advice about surfing.......I should ask the health department?

Good on you Taj.

Problem is blindboy that the real world data for 5 -11 year olds is only just trickling in and now areas that were not found in the small trial are coming to light. You are a very strange person who doesn’t give a fuck about people with real concerns.

Mate when supposedly intelligent people are unable to find information readily available on the internet then no, I don't have much sympathy if they then go online and undermine critical health messaging. If he does not want to vaccinate his kids at the moment fair enough, but he is in WA where the risk approaches zero. The vast majority of the people he is seeking to influence are unlikely to be so lucky. I have had several people contact me recently with exactly those concerns. I sent them the current links and suggested they talk to their doctor about it. Honestly given the number involved I am wondering about the incidence of repeated brain trauma on some of them. We used to joke about footy players who had stuck their heads in one too many scrums. I am wondering if some of our ex-pros might have head butted one too many reefs.

tonys-shirtfront wrote:

Get a dog up ya

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-18/pfizer-testing-third-vaccine-in-k...

Everyone losing their shit cos the gov suggests 5 - 11 year olds should be vaccinated.
What happens when the gov forces 2 - 4 year olds to get it. Read the article above, pfizer doing trials on 2 - 4 yo kids. 2 shots isn't enough, they'll need 3 shots plus boosters. The gov done a deal with pfizer, only a matter of time until it's mandated.
Now, lets start...

blindboy wrote:

Mate when supposedly intelligent people are unable to find information readily available on the internet then no, I don't have much sympathy if they then go online and undermine critical health messaging. If he does not want to vaccinate his kids at the moment fair enough, but he is in WA where the risk approaches zero. The vast majority of the people he is seeking to influence are unlikely to be so lucky. I have had several people contact me recently with exactly those concerns. I sent them the current links and suggested they talk to their doctor about it. Honestly given the number involved I am wondering about the incidence of repeated brain trauma on some of them. We used to joke about footy players who had stuck their heads in one too many scrums. I am wondering if some of our ex-pros might have head butted one too many reefs.

You miss the point , the only information is from a small trial, the government admits that it doesn’t have real world data yet . It’s got nothing to do with laziness, it’s got a lot to do with limited information.

Blindboy has made up his mind.

To him this means the science is settled.

Living with covid = You’re locked in your accommodation at government discretion despite being healthy.

Totally not authoritarian.

Remind me who in the population gave this shit a mandate ?

@blindboy, how many children under 12 do you have ?

Remember when it was finally admitted that the vaccines didn’t prevent transmission so they swapped the reasoning for vaccinations to “save the health system”.

Yet children who get the virus don’t clog the health system.

Let’s pretend that doesn’t matter and inject the kids with toxic substance anyway. Blindboy is past the point of bothering to lie to justify his ideological demands. Just do it!

blindboy would it be wiser (and possibly healthier) for you to be more open to the amount of greyness and ambiguity, and lack of certainties and absolute truths, not just in this covid situation but overall in life?

This particularly goes for data. Misinformation, confusion, deception, data errors, small datasets, questionable data definitions, poor data collecting (and heaven forbid data manipulation and fabrication) aside, with covid we're naturally trying to extrapolate to the whole population of the human race, and various segments of it, statistics on a virus and vaccines collected from tiny sample datasets generated "on the fly". This isn't a perfect process and leads to a lot of issues and raises a lot of questions.

When I look at the data and read the studies the authorities are going off, my past decade of being the head mathematician and machine learning modeller for a hedge fund that uses data-driven advanced machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques for algorithmic sports betting and financial market trading tells me that that there is very little reliable science going on out there to grab and hold on to. It's just not a perfect process.

And this is not in any way discrediting what experienced and respected scientists are doing - they are doing their best in the situation. It's just that the nature of the tiny datasets, the way they're being generated, the potential for errors in them, and in general the sheer velocity at which everything is happening around us renders a lot of uncertainty and greyness in the whole situation.

Sure it's ok and possibly a best bet to go with what we have, but it's also ok to ask questions and admit the uncertainty, lack of solid ground, lack of absolute truths, and the not knowing of life, covid and even science itself.

Plus I wouldn't call Taj a fuckwit.

5 million 5-11 year olds vaccinated in the US and early reports are of no major side effects.
"With nearly 5 million children ages 5 to 11 now vaccinated against COVID-19, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky says real-world monitoring finds vaccines are safe for young children.

Crucially, the CDC hasn't identified any concerns with the temporary heart inflammation known as myocarditis, a potential side effect of mRNA vaccines seen in rare circumstances in teenagers and young adults."

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-director-rochelle-walensky-concerns-my...

The data that the vaccine is safe is already there. Thois suggesting it is not can put their own children at risk if they must. Those using their status in unrelated fields to cast doubt on that are beneath contempt.

gsco, I have considerably more faith in the professionals working in the field than in your brief and vague assessment of their work.

Blowin as I posted at the time paediatric ICUs in many US states were overloaded with covid cases earlier in the year. Covid cases in Australia are increasing and are likely to get to very high levels over the next few months. As usual your talking out of your arse.

@blindboy , are you ready that blind ? Look at the date of your link then look what I posted yesterday

Supafreak wrote:

Eight heart inflammation cases among young kids who got COVID-19 shot - U.S. CDC Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday it had received reports of eight cases of myocarditis, a type of heart inflammation, in children aged 5-11 years who received Pfizer (PFE.N) and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine.

The CDC had previously said that reporting rates of myocarditis for boys aged 16 to 17 could be more than 69 cases per million second doses administered and around 40 cases per million second doses in boys aged 12-15 years old. The CDC did not say whether it believes there is a link between the myocarditis cases and the vaccine, or disclose the rate of myocarditis in the age group without vaccination.

The agency said there had been over 7 million vaccine doses in the 5-11 age group at the time it examined the data, with 5.1 million first doses and 2 million second doses. The cases had a mild clinical course, the CDC said.
The cases were reported in the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and presented by the CDC to a panel of its expert advisers. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/eight-heart-inflammation-cases-seen-amo.... 5 days ago this was the story With nearly 5 million children getting COVID vaccines, no safety problems have been seen, CDC director says. "If you want your children fully vaccinated by the holidays, now is the time." https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-director-rochelle-walensky-concerns-my...

The CDC is a drug peddling outfit.

The CDC is so confident of the vaccine’s safety that they indemnified the manufacturers against all liability before they’d created it….lol. That’s why the UN is struggling to provide undeveloped nations with the free vaccines because they aren’t able to provide the same blanket exemption to liability.

The real problem is, it's just not needed for children the stats are very very clear, children aren't affected by Covid unless they have other health issues.

So why put something into a young growing body that is totally not needed?

It's like putting snow chains on you car tyres to go to the beach in summer.

blindboy wrote:

Blowin as I posted at the time paediatric ICUs in many US states were overloaded with covid cases earlier in the year. Covid cases in Australia are increasing and are likely to get to very high levels over the next few months. As usual your talking out of your arse.

And you’re ignoring real world data and outcomes and making shit up to suit your bizarre doom and fear fetish. You should be gagged for public health bloke.

I was just talking to some acquaintances about ex high school teachers and freakish authoritarianism and belief that they’re unquestionable reservoirs of knowledge, despite their job entailing nothing more than parroting the same basic shit year in year out without requiring any skill or talent on their behalf whatsoever.

It’s nuts…we reckon they’re less reliable sources of knowledge than the blokes who rub down the footy players after the game.

blindboy wrote:

Blowin as I posted at the time paediatric ICUs in many US states were overloaded with covid cases earlier in the year. Covid cases in Australia are increasing and are likely to get to very high levels over the next few months. As usual your talking out of your arse.

And you’re ignoring real world data and outcomes and making shit up to suit your bizarre doom and fear fetish. You should be gagged for public health bloke.

I was just talking to some acquaintances about ex high school teachers and their freakish authoritarianism and laughable belief that they’re unquestionable reservoirs of medical knowledge, despite their job entailing nothing more than parroting the same basic shit year in year out without requiring any skill or talent on their behalf whatsoever.

It’s nuts…we reckon they’re less reliable sources of medical knowledge than the blokes who rub down the footy players after the game. We wondered if ex school teachers might have sniffed too much glue during their “careers”.

I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead body

"The real problem is, it's just not needed for children the stats are very very clear, children aren't affected by Covid unless they have other health issues."

Indo, many children have died in the US from covid. How many deaths do you think are acceptable in Australia in the coming wave? We are really just entering the pandemic. The vaccination rates in the community provide some protection but unvaccinated children will be vulnerable as numbers increase exponentially over the next few months.

supa 8 cases in 5 million is a tiny percentage, the cases were mild and the link to the vaccine is not yet clear. Even assuming it was the vaccine we know that the risk of similar effects from covid itself are both higher and much more likely to be serious. So as I asked Indo, how many child deaths do you think are acceptable in the coming wave?

I’ve no doubt blindboy will come back with ‘ it’s only 8 cases and they can treat it ‘ Only 8 cases ‘ reported ‘ so far . Sometimes this condition can come out weeks even months later . Some countries had in the 15 to 18 year old bracket 1 in 10,000 so they banned it . More data will come out in time , at the moment the government isn’t going on much . How many deaths or permanent injury from the jab for 5 to 11 is acceptable to you blindboy

No deaths out of 5 million doses in the US suggests that it will be zero. So how many child covid deaths do you think are acceptable?

BB I kind of feel sorry for you.

You seem to want absolute certainty and things to be black-and-white with covid and the vaccines.

And I see you sitting there day in day out trying your absolute hardest to convince yourself and everyone around you of this black and white certainty and of what you want to believe when it come to the vaccines.

(I know we're all guilt of doing this in our own way.)

But would it be better to just let go?

We really just don't know what's going to happen and that's the beauty of life?

blindboy wrote:

No deaths out of 5 million doses in the US suggests that it will be zero. So how many child covid deaths do you think are acceptable?

OK no ‘ reported ‘ deaths so far in the US , what about Vietnam ? https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/3rd-child-in-vietnam-dies-after-covid-...

Blindboy….you say that “8 cases in 5 million is a tiny percentage” when it comes to child deaths from vaccination, yet this literally the amount of deaths likely if every child in Australia caught covid.

Your fear mongering should be made illegal. Your inciting of panic through misinformation, lies and utter bullshit has serious effects on people who have already been made vulnerable to such fear mongering through a concerted campaign by media.

You ought to be locked up. After being tasered.

What kind of sad old man gets his kicks trying to induce irrational fear in the community? We are meant to find bastions of strength, resilience and wisdom in our elders, not soft cock chickenshit fear peddling.

Once a Henny Penny, always a Henny Penny.

Idiot that was mild myocarditis not deaths ffs mate keep.up.
supa from that link " .....cause of death not determined."

Blindboy wants innocent, healthy and invulnerable children injected with a toxic substance to allay his irrational fear.

burleigh wrote:

I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead body

So medical advice and treatment from Drs is ok…but only when it suits you?
Surely an organic Acai bowel would be sufficient treatment for everything?

blindboy wrote:

Idiot that was mild myocarditis not deaths ffs mate keep.up.

Your not understanding what blowin is saying

In all honesty i really think most parents would now be more concerned about jumping castles than the risk of Covid affecting their kids..

Five fit and healthy kids dead from jumping castles in Australia this year, while during Covid in Australia three people under 19 with other health conditions have died.

Roadkill wrote:

burleigh wrote:

I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead body

So medical advice and treatment from Drs is ok…but only when it suits you?
Surely an organic Acai bowel would be sufficient treatment for everything?

Doctors are threatened with disbarment if they speak negatively about vaccines in any form, irrespective of their personal thoughts on the matter.

Omicron has the same hospitalisation rate as the flu.

Fact.

Blowin wrote:

Roadkill wrote:

burleigh wrote:

I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead body

So medical advice and treatment from Drs is ok…but only when it suits you?
Surely an organic Acai bowel would be sufficient treatment for everything?

Doctors are threatened with disbarment if they speak negatively about vaccines in any form, irrespective of their personal thoughts on the matter.

Yawn…you are just posting for the sake of posting…obviously, nothing better to do.

Roadkill wrote:

Blowin wrote:

Roadkill wrote:

burleigh wrote:

I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead body

So medical advice and treatment from Drs is ok…but only when it suits you?
Surely an organic Acai bowel would be sufficient treatment for everything?

Doctors are threatened with disbarment if they speak negatively about vaccines in any form, irrespective of their personal thoughts on the matter.

Yawn…you are just posting for the sake of posting…obviously, nothing better to do.

To quote Midnight Oil - “ If you disagree you get annihilated.”
Funnily enough that song was about the generals of corporation…..Pfizer would have fit in perfectly.

The truth about Doctors being threatened with deregistration if they talk negatively about the jab is so appalling that you don’t believe it.

Toe the line or lose your ability to practice medicine. Totally not authoritarian!

https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/doctors-face-deregistratio...

“Healthcare professionals have been warned they could be stripped of their ability to practise if they disseminate information about Covid-19 vaccines which regulators consider to be false or misleading.

The Medical Board of Australia and the Australian Health Practitioner Regulatory Agency (AHPRA) have issued a joint directive warning members they risk disciplinary action for providing ‘false or deceptive’ advice or information that could undermine the national vaccination program.

The statement has been supported by national health professional boards across the nation, including the medical, nursing and midwifery, pharmacy, dental, chiropractic, Chinese medicine, paramedicine and osteopathy boards of Australia.

The directive encompasses the provision of information to patients, as well as the publication of information on websites and social media, raising concerns that medical experts could be prevented from sharing genuinely-held concerns about Covid-19 vaccines.

The directive states: “Any promotion of anti-vaccination statements or health advice which contradicts the best available scientific evidence or seeks to actively undermine the national immunisation campaign (including via social media) is not supported by National Boards and may be in breach of the codes of conduct and subject to investigation and possible regulatory action.”

Omicron surge is causing far less hospitalization than Delta did, South Africa minister says: 1.7% instead of 19%. https://www.businessinsider.com/omicron-hospitalization-rate-about-10-of...

From your link......caused by the rise in immunity in the population.

blindboy wrote:

From your link......caused by the rise in immunity in the population.

And….we’ve got 95% immunity and you’re still trying to incite fear. If Australia is 150% more vaccinated than South Africa then theoretically we should experience only 25% of their hospitalisation rate.

So Australian omicron hospitalisation rate of 0.5%……way less than the flu.

According to your mitigating factors we should have nothing to worry about yet you’re claiming the sky is about to fall. FFS ….give it up and admit you’re addicted to the thrill of believing your life is threatened.

It’s not. Move on with your life and stop trying to incite panic in the community. That’s evil shit .

Guesswork.

blindboy wrote:

From your link......caused by the rise in immunity in the population.

Well then with Australia having a high vaccination rate , then things are looking a lot better , wouldn’t you agree ? Or are you saying natural immunity is better than vaccination ?

Seriously blindboy, maybe talking to a professional about your fears may help

I have no fear of the disease at all. I will take reasonable precautions and am very healthy for my age, still surfing 3-5 days a week and with no existing risk conditions. If I get it I get it. If it gets me, oh well I have had a great life can't complain really.
My real concern is that fuckwits undermining the vaccination program will cause unnecessary deaths.