COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
@goofyfoot not sure if you read this link I put up earlier, got some more stats on kids getting covid.
Supafreak wrote:An article from 10/09/21 on delta and children in Australia. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/delta-s-impact-on-australian-c...
However, it also showed that the vast majority of children (98%) had asymptomatic or mild cases of COVID-19 and reaffirmed that they are significantly less likely to pass on the SARS-CoV-2 virus than adults.
burleigh wrote:blindboy wrote:As covid spreads rapidly over
the next few months case numbers will rise dramatically and unvaccinated children will have a risk of serious illness and death. With high vaccination rates those numbers will be much lower as will the cases of long covid.
Vaccination will drastically reduce the total number of infections, reduce community transmission and help speed up the end of the pandemic.Vaccination will drastically reduce the total number of infections & reduce community transmissions. haha are you serious. You've got some serious blinkers on buddy.
The "reduce community transmission" part confirms the blinkers are in fact a blindfold. its at the point now where its almost sad to watch/read.
All states at 80% (at least) vax yet the government of NSW (93%) have publically forecasted 25k transmission a day by end of Jan 22.
Finally got to the bottom of it all - covid was genetically engineered by women to wipe out the male population:
Supafreak wrote:@goofyfoot not sure if you read this link I put up earlier, got some more stats on kids getting covid.
Supafreak wrote:An article from 10/09/21 on delta and children in Australia. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/delta-s-impact-on-australian-c...
However, it also showed that the vast majority of children (98%) had asymptomatic or mild cases of COVID-19 and reaffirmed that they are significantly less likely to pass on the SARS-CoV-2 virus than adults.
Thanks supa, it’s almost so low as to be completely irrelevant isn’t it.
supa thinking about your child individually is to take a narrow perspective. Vaccination works at a community level by taking a risk that might already be low and pushing it towards zero. In the case of covid the more children who are vaccinated the lower the risk of any individual catching it. Conversely if the vaccination rate is low infections will rise rapidly to a much higher total and so increase the risk for all children. Whichever way you look at it then vaccination reduces the risk of illness in your child.
@blindboy, when you use words like ‘ might ‘ ‘ could ‘ ‘ may ‘ then it doesn’t really build much confidence in what your saying.
"might" was the only one I used and that was in terms of defining the initial risk which varies. The other statements were absolutes. Vaccinating your child will decrease the risk of infection and serious illness. High vaccination rates in children in your community will lower that risk further.
blindboy wrote:"might" was the only one I used and that was in terms of defining the initial risk which varies. The other statements were absolutes. Vaccinating your child will decrease the risk of infection and serious illness. High vaccination rates in children in your community will lower that risk further.
Vaccinating your child with an experiment that in adults has shown to cause heart issues/blood clots with ZERO long term data.
Yeah thats a no from me boomer. No chance in hell will that needle come near my kids to protect old scared people like you. You've got your vax, you choose your future path. If that path involves wearing a face nappy while outside, then good for you.
@blindboy , at the moment the community transmissions are increasing and there are some big predictions on numbers being thrown around. The transmissions are occurring not just in unvaccinated ( which are now a minority ) By the time 5 -11 year old vaccines arrive on jan 10 ( apparently ) it will probably be to late . I feel for the parents of kids who are compromised.
Yeh to be honest, for Australia, the pandemic is just beginning and the next 6 months or so are likely to be challenging for many people. We have done well getting vaccination rates to where they are but we now need to protect ourselves as well as we can. For old bastards like me it means avoiding crowds in poorly ventilated spaces and sticking with the face nappy. I feel for those who have been sucked in by the kind of toxic crap seen here every day (usually from arses who are vaccinated themselves). The unvaccinated are heading into a shit storm.
You have got to be kidding ! We are investigating these treatments:
Favipiravir (an antiviral drug)
Ivermectin (this arm is currently paused due to temporary supply issues). https://www.principletrial.org/
VicLocal and his Mrs caught on camera out shopping for some groceries
Well aren't you a judgemental fuckwit burleigh.
The old boy might have a compromised immune system. He might be getting chemo and wants to protect himself.
And so what if this is what this elderly couple does. Why do you give a fuck anyway? It's not like he's harming anyone.
See I'm different to you. I get pissed at the Newcastle super spreader who went nightclubbing when he should have been isolating. Unlike the old boy in the vid, that 20 year old shithead has caused mayhem because he was a selfish prick.
That turd was probably one of those hyper masculine "I'm not scared of the virus / people who wear masks are pussies" types. They aren't big tough men, they are just selfish pricks.
I think that video is sad and depressing. I went shopping today and the main people still wearing masks are the weak and frail elderly. I can sense the fear in them and the media must be proud of the job they’ve done .
Heidi Murphy
@heidimur
12-15 yos in VIC no longer have to be vacced to access camp/sport/dance concerts/school graduations under the rule change overnight - after a month of lock out.
Acting Premier Merlino: "I know it's been a challenge" but "it was the right thing to do to drive up vacc rates".
11:11 AM · Dec 16, 2021·Twitter Web App
34
Retweets
Holy Fark where do you start with this?
ohh lets further ostracize an age group of children who for 2 years that have been seperated from thier friends, an interupted education, no sport or exercise ,locked in their homes for 22 hours a day, faced mentally challenging conditions and lets now divide them and lock them further out of society in order get vax rates up!
Genius Fuckwittery of the highest level
Merlino is fine with himself this to drop it on talk back radio today.
If anyone here is comfortable with that i suggest you take a long hard look at yourself and think what sort of human are you.
purely disgraceful.
that vid is depressing... poor old buggers... media have a lot to answer to...
just makes me think back to the beginning of the pandemic, regular people in US and europe were sanitising everything, even mail! ...but especially things like home deliveries and shopping...
this was a result of the limited info. available, and it seems the limited info. authorities had to go on, ....which was the virus sticks to surfaces, cold hard surfaces, urban surfaces, and lasts... this was clearly a result of intelligence about the suspicious nature of the virus, or misinformation from china combined with the worst fears of people that knew what was actually going on in that lab
months and months of deep cleaning and sanitising everything, trains, towns, stations and streets... only to find out it is airborne...
about time media and authorities cleared some of this misinformation and plain bullshit up, so poor old dudes like those in the vid don't need to live in so much fear and can focus their energies
just plain bloody shameful the way some in authority have behaved throughout this pandemic
gsco wrote:Finally got to the bottom of it all - covid was genetically engineered by women to wipe out the male population:
this stat was actually established pretty early in the pandemic
I did hear the other day though something new you did touch on, abc said there may be a genetic component to the susceptability of corona, with the japanese being an example of s race with possible genetic resistance. I tried to commit the source to memory so i could look it up later but I forgot, it was one of those fairly generic sounding sources like 'the asian times' or something...
sypkan wrote:that vid is depressing... poor old buggers... media have a lot to answer to...
just makes me think back to the beginning of the pandemic, regular people in US and europe were sanitising everything, even mail! ...but especially things like home deliveries and shopping...
this was a result of the limited info. available, and it seems the limited info. authorities had to go on, ....which was the virus sticks to surfaces, cold hard surfaces, urban surfaces, and lasts... this was clearly a result of intelligence about the suspicious nature of the virus, or misinformation from china combined with the worst fears of people that knew what was actually going on in that lab
months and months of deep cleaning and sanitising everything, trains, towns, stations and streets... only to find out it is airborne...
about time media and authorities cleared some of this misinformation and plain bullshit up, so poor old dudes like those in the vid don't need to live in so much fear and can focus their energies
just plain bloody shameful the way some in authority have behaved throughout this pandemic
It’s been an orchestrated campaign to induce fear in the population since before covid even hit our shores.
Remember when the virus first hit Wuhan and they were allegedly welding people shut in their apartments and disinfecting entire cities?
They sure showed the western world that desperate measures were required. It sure worked though! Even though the virus should have been spreading like wildfire through their jam packed citizenry whilst it was still unknown and their was no mitigation measures or vaccinations, they apparently managed to attain zero covid after a two week lockdown!
Think about that and then think about how many times you’ve been told that there’s a few week lag between case, hospitalisation and fatalities exploding. Think about that when you’ve been in lockdown for four months to slow the spread.
Why so different? You’re not meant to think about that.
China, the epicentre of the virus where it first hit and before anyone knew what was happening in order to combat it , with a population of 1600000000 people has had 100K cases and 4K deaths in total. The nation where healthy people were spontaneously dropping dead as they walked through the street.
Totally believable!
https://www.scmp.com/video/china/3050205/china-disinfects-entire-cities-...
The success of the Chinese technique in attaining zero covid through draconian measures was the example we followed. Although in Wuhan it took just 14 days to get zero covid, in Melbourne it took 270 days…..and we ain’t done yet!
Another little heads up to crew who think Scummocchio is being straight up about living with covid and the end of harsh measures.
This from February of this year…..whilst UK just imposed mandatory vaccination and vaccines passports.
The video is just an extreme example of irrational fear…no different to extreme anti vaxers promoting irrational stuff.
That video is one of the reasons people sit cowering in their homes afraid of the 38th ranked cause of death in Australia. That video is part of the reason that government was able to lock people in their homes 23 hours per day and all night.
Of course the numbers of people who’ve died from covid alone would put that figure out of the top 100 causes of death if we were honest about it.
It is part of an orchestrated fear campaign.
blindboy wrote:Aaron if you are unable to distinguish between an error in vaccine production producing 10 deaths and 56 cases of paralysis and an epidemic that killed over 300 and paralysed over 20,000 you are either exceptionally stupid or posting bullshit for ideological reasons.
Comprehension is not your strong point is it?
40,000 developed abortive poliomyelitis (a form of the disease that does not involve the central nervous system), 56 developed paralytic poliomyelitis—and of these, five children died from polio.[2] The exposures led to an epidemic of polio in the families and communities of the affected children, resulting in a further 113 people paralyzed and 5 deaths.[3]
40,000 suffered various polio damage to limbs etc, just not damage to the central nervous system.
The community suffered an epidemic.
"you are either exceptionally stupid or posting bullshit for ideological reasons".
You need a fucking mirror. Blind is so apt for you.
The media still inciting panic. Inferring that we are on the razors edge and lockdowns are needed but we are swimming against the tide…..evil fear mongering shit.
Reporting case numbers has a lot to do with it and should be made illegal to curb the mental health issues it causes
How often do you get the flu? Once every four or five years?
If covid cases in our country now bounce around the 10,000 - 30,000 mark each day then you’ll catch it once every four to five years. In other words that must be where the flu numbers get to all the time
If you’ve ever had flu proper, you know it’s to be respected. The worst I had it I was living alone at the time and for 3 days I was delirious with fever, night and day blurred into one. I sweated kilos off and only got out of bed for the rare wee. Probably should have called myself an ambulance but I got through it on my own fine
Blowin wrote:The media still inciting panic...
Everyone just needs to stop clicking.
What the world needs is a concerted, draconian, CPC-style military enforcement of getting everyone to start clicking only on cat videos (again, like we used to).
Then the AI algorithms will adjust and all the website performance metrics will take note, and we'll go back to the good old days of how things used to be where the internet was 90% cat videos.
Lockdowns are unlikely as high vaccination rates mean most infections will not produce serious disease. But the unvaccinated are heading into a shit storm. They are the ones who will fill the ICUs. This has happened everywhere else. Welcome to the pandemic of the unvaccinated. Treatments have improved so the death rate will probably be much lower. All you double vaxxed bullshit artists who lack even the courage of your convictions must be proud of your contribution to the unvaried numbers. So come on, is there ANYONE in this discussion who is not vaccinated?
A lot of lies in your post Blindboy. There ought to be a law against talking bullshit before 9AM.
Are you still drunk?
My bro in law has got it. Poor bastard broke his ankle two weeks ago on a cycle trip through the Snowy's (not a bike fall but busted it when his car got stuck in a river and he tried to free it).
Couldn't get into hotel quarantine as everywhere is full so he's living in the basement with a moon boot for two weeks, while my sister places chicken and corn soup at the door in regular intervals.
stunet wrote:My bro in law has got it. Poor bastard broke his ankle two weeks ago on a cycle trip through the Snowy's (not a bike fall but busted it when his car got stuck in a river and he tried to free it).
Couldn't get into hotel quarantine as everywhere is full so he's living in the basement with a moon boot for two weeks, while my sister places chicken and corn soup at the door in regular intervals.
That’s a shitty calamitous sequence of events. How’s he feeling? How long has he had it?
How is it when you see crew in Bali gasping around in a moon boot after the expected motorcycle bingle. Imagine the stink emanating from that thing after you’ve spent the day parked up at the husband minding service drinking Longies of bintang whilst your lady perused the shops, averting your eyes every time another troupe of tube stoned surfers stumbles past you in a post surf bliss. Hectic.
Covid update:
Looks like Omicron isn't as dangerous as Delta but it's way more transmissible.
Case numbers surging in Australia, following similar patterns around the world. Social distancing restrictions are being reintroduced around the world. Hospitalisations are on the rise in Australia.
Ant-vaxxer / pro-freedumb mob still saying there's nothing to worry about, still doing the "tough guy" routine. Still mocking scientists, doctors, and anyone who follows medical advice. Still not giving a fuck about anyone but themselves.
Tell me again why these selfish morons shouldn't pay for their covid treatment if they get sick while unvaccinated.
He's feeling dejected, as you'd expect. Making it worse is that the extended family were supposed to have Xmas lunch at their house and he's the ultimate Master of Ceremonies: starts on the marinate five days prior, owns an eight-burner BBQ, personalised tongs, story behind every dish etc etc.
He's only had the lurgy a few days. Apparently feels like a lesser case of the flu.
"personalised tongs"
Wow, what happens if you touch the tongs?
Nothing. He's not territorial about them. He's got a King Arthur/Excalibur thing happening where he knows no-one can wield those tongs like he does.
adam12 wrote:"personalised tongs"
Wow, what happens if you touch the tongs?
Hahahaha
You’ll notice Stu often has “injuries” from surfing, bike riding etc.
but really he just keeps touching those damn tongs…
"Merlin, I am the strongest! I am the one! The tongs! You promised me the tongs!"
Good laugh to start the day.
I'm a bit like that- I don't do no half-arsed barbie.
Vic Local wrote:Covid update:
Looks like Omicron isn't as dangerous as Delta but it's way more transmissible.
Case numbers surging in Australia, following similar patterns around the world. Social distancing restrictions are being reintroduced around the world. Hospitalisations are on the rise in Australia.
Ant-vaxxer / pro-freedumb mob still saying there's nothing to worry about, still doing the "tough guy" routine. Still mocking scientists, doctors, and anyone who follows medical advice. Still not giving a fuck about anyone but themselves.
Tell me again why these selfish morons shouldn't pay for their covid treatment if they get sick while unvaccinated.
Especially for you, VL. Data from Gauteng Province in SA (pop 16mio):
(What that doesn't show, but Pieter Streicher mentioned in the interview posted earlier, is that hospitalisations under Omicron are 2.8 days on average, compared to 8.7 day for Delta.)
Omricon is very transmissible amongst the ‘vaccinated’.
VL - “Covid update:
Looks like Omicron isn't as dangerous as Delta but it's way more transmissible.”
Chill out then, you’re an angry man
goofyfoot wrote:VL - “Covid update:
Looks like Omicron isn't as dangerous as Delta but it's way more transmissible.”Chill out then, you’re an angry man
No way . Now is the perfect time to PANIC!!!!!!!!!
Qld back in lockdown in a few days...calling it...no way Palaszczuk has the stomach for increased case numbers...
Sorry, couldn't help myself.
To suggest that anyone is panicking is pretty obviously ridiculous. Those who want to claim reasonable precautions are the same as panic are just amateur provocateurs driven by the moronic ideology that has developed around pandemic management. Just more in the never ending pile of putrid stinking bullshit they dump here every day.
"No way . Now is the perfect time to PANIC!!!!!!!!!"
No blowin, now's the time for a sober assessment of the situation and an adjustment to covid rules that are consistent with facts and expert advice.
Island Bay, thanks for those figures. Nice to see shorter stays in hospitals. This of course would be caused by two main factors. 1. The relative strength of Omicron compared to Delta and 2. The increased vaccination rates in SA.
We have some very competent people in Australia crunching numbers and working out hospital peaks too. The fact NSW hospitals have now changed their alert levels to red is not a good sign.
We do know that hospital admissions and deaths trail new infection numbers. We do know that new infection numbers go up when social distancing restrictions are eased. The new case numbers in NSW are very bad and will get worse because there's no political will to re-introduce lockdowns.
If deaths and hospitalisations don't go up substantially it will be because of vaccines. If they don't go up substantially, it will be despite the anti-vax flogs and freedumb sooks why chuck wobblies when they are told to wear a mask on public transport.
You blokes who keep pushing your anti-vax pro-super spreader agendas and looking even more ridiculous today.
Vic Local wrote:"No way . Now is the perfect time to PANIC!!!!!!!!!"
No blowin, now's the time for a sober assessment of the situation and an adjustment to covid rules that are consistent with facts and expert advice.
Island Bay, thanks for those figures. Nice to see shorter stays in hospitals. This of course would be caused by two main factors. 1. The relative strength of Omicron compared to Delta and 2. The increased vaccination rates in SA.
We have some very competent people in Australia crunching numbers and working out hospital peaks too. The fact NSW hospitals have now changed their alert levels to red is not a good sign.
We do know that hospital admissions and deaths trail new infection numbers. We do know that new infection numbers go up when social distancing restrictions are eased. The new case numbers in NSW are very bad and will get worse because there's no political will to re-introduce lockdowns.
If deaths and hospitalisations don't go up substantially it will be because of vaccines. If they don't go up substantially, it will be despite the anti-vax flogs and freedumb sooks why chuck wobblies when they are told to wear a mask on public transport.
You blokes who keep pushing your anti-vax pro-super spreader agendas and looking even more ridiculous today.
No Vicmoron, if deaths don't go up dramatically it will be because of Omicron being less deadly. You even said this yourself earlier.
It's obviously clear that vaccines do not stop transmission, even though your were told time and time again that they will. Fuck some premiers are still running with that shit.
Likelihood of testing positive
People who had three vaccine doses were less likely to test positive
People who reported receiving three vaccine doses were less likely to test positive than those who had a second AstraZeneca vaccine dose, or a second Pfizer vaccination over 90 days ago (15 to 28 November 2021).
People were more likely to test positive for COVID-19, if they were one of the following:
unvaccinated
not previously infected with COVID-19
living in a household of three or more people
school-aged children and adults aged around 40 to 50 years
male
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/...
Unvaccinated people were more likely to be reinfected
The rate of reinfections was low in the UK between 2 July 2020 and 1 December 2021.
People who received a second vaccine dose over 90 days ago were more likely to be reinfected than those who received it 14 to 89 days ago.
Unvaccinated people were three times more likely to be reinfected than those who had their second vaccine 14 to 89 days ago.
People were more likely to be reinfected if they had a lower viral load at their initial infection.
The risk of reinfection was higher when the Delta variant of COVID-19 was the dominant strain (from 17 May 2021) than when the Alpha variant was dominant.
Because of the time period contributing to this analysis, Omicron infections will not be impacting these estimates.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/...
“Those who want to claim reasonable precautions are the same as panic are just amateur provocateurs “
I guess that’s subjective and dependent on whether you believe locking millions of healthy people in their houses against their will is a “reasonable precaution” for a virus which is no more harmful than the flu for almost everyone who gets it.
I Focus is already panicking about getting it a second time despite less than 1% of Australians having caught it at all.
Panic!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BTW….I Focus might not want to read this bit as it may derail his panic train.
A whopping 470 subjects were involved in the reinfection survey out of a population of almost 70,000,000 people.
Even this is based on dodgy data collection ie bullshit. The testing is not able to differentiate between remnant of initial infection and a new infection. So the reinfections may not even exist. FFS.
“Standard definitions of reinfection rely on whole genome sequencing of both initial and subsequent positive swab tests, or on testing positive for antibodies at a previous blood test, neither of which are currently available for most participants in the survey. It is important to note that no definition of reinfection using positive swab tests alone can differentiate reinfections as distinct from ongoing detection of virus, including after intermittent negative tests. SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positivity may persist for prolonged periods (up to 90 days in a small minority of individuals) following initial infection without indicating a viable virus. RT-PCR tests may also be intermittently negative despite continued detection of the virus.“
Panic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia