COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
With all the PANIC fetishists rejoicing at rising case rates it’s worth remembering just how dogshit this data is and how unreliable the pcr tests in Australia are at 40 cycles:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-12/coronacheck-pcr-tests-ct-cycles-m...
Here’s a real world example of discrepancy within the same subject group from I Focus’s link. It shows how many of the 17343 subjects tested positive for reinfection using a cycle rate higher than 30 ( 133 reinfected) vs the reinfected tested using cycle rates lower than 30 ( 24 reinfected).
The higher the cycle the less reliable the test. By simply lowering the cycles for the same subject group it was revealed the ( potential) positive tests were over quoted by 550%.
Australia uses 40 cycles …..PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok blowin, we get it. You like to yell "panic" at people who take covid seriously.
This is pretty typically behaviour from you. When you get told something you don't want to hear by experts. instead of trying to understand what they are saying, you belittle them from a position of pure ignorance.
You lie pathologically and misrepresent covid stats on a daily basis. You think baffling people with bullshit on high rotation gives your opinions credibility. Sorry champ, you're a fool. You've always been a fool. You have zero medical training, but you genuinely think you're smarter than the vast majority of medical researchers. Your anti-elite agenda, and the way you sneer at educated people is just pathetic. You're nothing more than a loud mouthed ignorant ex-chippie.
Whoops ….I forgot to add the photo accompanying I Focus’ linkmwhich showed the discrepancy between the PCR tests at different cycles. Only 550% increase in cases by raising the cycles to the standard in Australia!
Here it is:
Blowin the data from that UK government site is in line with what other western countries are showing.
The site is quite good and the Britts do a reasonable job with this stuff.
The trends are clear on how vaccinations have protected populations across all age groups particularly older groups. Note the higher transmission is in younger age groups currently which is unsurprising as is the vaccines effectiveness at slowing transmission.
The hospitalization rates before vaccinations and post vaccinations are undeniable evidence.
This is in a population where vax rates are no where near Australia's.
I have a couple of mates rabid anti vaxs, anti mandate pretty much anti everything at the moment, cannot change them but do try the lower their emotional load.
Life is short, death is long.
I focus wrote:Blowin the data from that UK government site is in line with what other western countries are showing.
The site is quite good and the Britts do a reasonable job with this stuff.
The trends are clear on how vaccinations have protected populations across all age groups particularly older groups. Note the higher transmission is in younger age groups currently which is unsurprising as is the vaccines effectiveness at slowing transmission.
The hospitalization rates before vaccinations and post vaccinations are undeniable evidence.
This is in a population where vax rates are no where near Australia's.
I have a couple of mates rabid anti vaxs, anti mandate pretty much anti everything at the moment, cannot change them but do try the lower their emotional load.
Life is short, death is long.
I’m quoting your site directly. I’m not making this stuff up. It’s all there in your link.
Quality of the site as it gives you the data but your point is not that significant compared to below
One thing still missing is what effect the new variant will have on hospitalisation rates and the data hasn't come in yet it will be some thing to watch as the UK is ahead of Australia as infection rates there spiral up wards.
It says a lot about the political motivations behind UK government reactions to the virus. As shown by your graphs, the virus is decreasing as a threat yet the government is talking and acting as though it’s the end of the world.
They’ve just introduced mandatory vaccines and the UTTERLY USELESS and hideous vaccine passports AKA Trojan horse for social credit system digital ID , despite the increasing positive news on covid.
The UK government has an agenda which is not supported by data or facts.
Acting like it's the end if the world? Another ridiculous claim! Football stadiums have been packed to the rafters with maskless punters ffs. The only panic happening is inside Blowie's head as he realises that everything he has said about the pandemic from day one is now totally discredited. Come on mate, give us ONE correct prediction or analysis?
Blowin wrote:As shown by your graphs, the virus is decreasing as a threat yet the government is talking and acting as though it’s the end of the world.
It's too early to say yet the effects of Omicron infecting 10's of thousands as hospitalisations and deaths lag infections but we'll know over the next two weeks..
Well you’ve got the head medical officer for South Africa, where they’ve been dealing with it for a month, saying it’s nothing to worry about and the reaction in the UK is unjustified.
She’s the expert who’s seen it more than anyone in the world ……but I guess anything which isn’t chicken shit fear peddling is the wrong kind of expert opinion?
South Africa has 30% obesity rates and has had 3.3m cases so far yet here come the soft cocks with their excuses why the South African example doesn’t count.
Or why Botswana , Eswatini, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia and Lesotho. don’t count etc etc
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/botswana-say...
Well that's great news then.
blindboy wrote:Acting like it's the end if the world? Another ridiculous claim! Football stadiums have been packed to the rafters with maskless punters ffs. The only panic happening is inside Blowie's head as he realises that everything he has said about the pandemic from day one is now totally discredited. Come on mate, give us ONE correct prediction or analysis?
How about this one?
I predicted in about May/ June 2020 that the whole thing was a beat up overhyped exercise in shifting media units and extracting more power and control over the population…..and I was right.
In two years of an Earth shattering pandemic there’s less people dead with a positive covid test than died from air pollution in India during the same period.
What’s that? You say you feel like locking yourself in your basement because of air pollution and organising the world to shut down for months and getting Bob Geldoff to stage a charity concert ……or do you not even think about it?
Well guess what bloke…..the average Aussie is about as likely to die from Indian air pollution as they are from covid.
Covid!!!!!!!!
https://lifestyle.livemint.com/smart-living/environment/onethird-of-indi...
You can tell Blindboy and VIC local and Roadkill are only chickenshit scared for themselves and don’t actually give a fuck about the rest of society. They just use that as an excuse to force others to forfeit freedoms so they can live the fantasy of being immortal.
I’ve never seen a single post from any of them declaring that Australians should be protected from diabetes or heart disease or skydiving deaths or any single other cause of death. Yet now they are all about confining healthy Australians to their basement to protect them….yeah right.
It’s just more boomer selfishness. Boomers who expect millions of healthy Australians to be locked up in their houses should pay for the lost wages, physical and mental hardship, punitive costs for everyone of those Australians who sacrificed for their withered old boomer hides.
You would need the data to support that. The only sites I can find put annual Indian deaths from air pollution at 1.2 million per year. So maybe 3 million over the course of the pandemic as opposed to a minimum of 5.3 million covid deaths over the same period. Then there is the ridiculous nature of the comparison. Air pollution is a serious problem so is covid but they are entirely unrelated (well except for the poor Indians whose health was damaged by the first and finished off by the second). It is like comparing road deaths to flu deaths....they are unrelated phenomena ...well except in your head which links all sorts of strange things to reach your usual pre-determined conclusion. ( You really should try research first - conclusion second it works much more reliably than your consistent inversion of it.) Finally, as you keep asserting, covid deaths are likely to decline over time (high vaccination rates, better treatments). Covid then was, and remains, a problem with obvious solutions in countries with the economic power to implement them. Air pollution in India? Good luck coming up with a solution to that in anything like a similar time frame.....but ramble on. One of these days you might, by random good luck, actually get something right. The odds against it being simultaneously relevant though are pretty high.
The best thing about Blowie though is that he knows when he is beaten and goes straight for the personal stuff. Sad and pathetic but that's our Blowie, bullshit, bullshit bullshit.....insult insult insult.
I love irony…..and here’s a perfect little slice for a Friday arvo:
“The best thing about Blowie though is that he knows when he is beaten and goes straight for the personal stuff. Sad and pathetic but that's our Blowie, bullshit, bullshit bullshit.....insult insult insult.“
It dovetails beautifully with this from Blindboy yesterday….after he’d been shown to be talking bullshit as usual.
“You are a complete fuckwit without an ethical bone in your body. You continually post material that is deceptive and designed to undermine public health measures....which is about the only reason I am down here in the sewers of Swellchan. Shut the fuck up with your lies and bullshit and I will leave you to spew the rest of your venom unimpeded.“
Haha fark me you two don't rest. It's crazy.
It passes the time when the surfs dung, it’s mosquito infected and soaking wet outside and you’ve e got caring duties.
There might be something more productive to do I guess but I can’t be arsed doing it.
And I do enjoy watching the old carnt squirm.
Never had much tolerance for bullshit in any form and when it amounts to a long term attempt to deliberately mislead people into making bad decisons about their personal and community health, then yeh I will find time to address it. The only crazy thing is why Swellnet continues to publish such material.
Long story but I will keep it as short as possible.
Pre covid I took a group of internationals on an indigenous tour. Our guide Tim took us to a fabulous sacred site, did the welcome to country, and he showed us some etchings in the rocks. One of the regular characters had a smaller head and enlarged male genitals. It represented a youth, who thought he was a big man but lacked knowledge and wisdom to be a proper man.
Hey blowin, when you publish absolute BS about covid, and call everyone "chickenshit", "softcock", "old carnts" etc, while boasting about not being scared, you remind me of this character.
The thing is, the person in the etchings represented youths. You on the other hand are middle aged. Nothing but an ageing "big swinging dick" with fuck all smarts to back it up.
Vic Local wrote:Long story but I will keep it as short as possible.
Pre covid I took a group of internationals on an indigenous tour. Our guide Tim took us to a fabulous sacred site, did the welcome to country, and he showed us some etchings in the rocks. One of the regular characters had a smaller head and enlarged male genitals. It represented a youth, who thought he was a big man but lacked knowledge and wisdom to be a proper man.
Hey blowin, when you publish absolute BS about covid, and call everyone "chickenshit", "softcock", "old carnts" etc, while boasting about not being scared, you remind me of this character.
The thing is, the person in the etchings represented youths. You on the other hand are middle aged. Nothing but an ageing "big swinging dick" with fuck all smarts to back it up.
I didn't think it was possible but you've got more strange.
I don’t call everyone a chicken shit or a softcock, only the chickenshits and soft cocks. If the shoe fits….wear it bloke!
I’ve got nothing but respect for my elders in general and that’s why the terms Boomer and Old Carnt are aimed at a particularly reeking form of faeces who demands the rest of the nation caters to their every whim. When you’ve got a seventyish year old bloke insisting that 5 year old kids get injected with a toxic substance and forcibly separated from their friends and lives for a couple of years , just to appease the stinky old poo’s irrational fear , then it calls for a certain level of derogatory wording.
BTW….you reckon you’re a pretty smart kind of bloke? Why don’t you do the maths for me and estimate how many thousands of dollars the taxpayers paid you to sit on your arse and whine about others hating the lockdowns cause they’ve been made bankrupt and depressed?
How much bloke?
Blowin wrote:You can tell Blindboy and VIC local and Roadkill are only chickenshit scared for themselves and don’t actually give a fuck about the rest of society. They just use that as an excuse to force others to forfeit freedoms so they can live the fantasy of being immortal.
I’ve never seen a single post from any of them declaring that Australians should be protected from diabetes or heart disease or skydiving deaths or any single other cause of death. Yet now they are all about confining healthy Australians to their basement to protect them….yeah right.
It’s just more boomer selfishness. Boomers who expect millions of healthy Australians to be locked up in their houses should pay for the lost wages, physical and mental hardship, punitive costs for everyone of those Australians who sacrificed for their withered old boomer hides.
Well, this is a thread about covid so I comment...it's not a thread about obesity or skydiving deaths or other.
Blowin, I'm not sucking up (and I don't want you to start being nice to me), but you're an intelligent and original person with good insight into things, who I've learnt something from.
And I've spent the last 15 years around some high level mathematicians and software engineers (many I didn't learn anything from).
I can't help but think your current life circumstance presents an opportunity for you to spend the bulk of your time exploring potentially new journeys or paths in life that you might find very fulfilling (if you're not already).
I doubt that you're too old. Peter Garrett once said "And they say it's late, but you know it's never too late."
I focus wrote:One thing still missing is what effect the new variant will have on hospitalisation rates and the data hasn't come in yet it will be some thing to watch as the UK is ahead of Australia as infection rates there spiral up wards.
But we do have the data on South Africa cases, despite a crazy high infection rate the hospitslation rate is much lower than previous waves and a very low rate of people on respirators.
But South Africa is a little different, despite low vax rates it does have the advantage of a very high rate of natural immunity.
South African age distribution
Australian age distribution.
Draw your own conclusion.
South African age distribution
Australian age distribution.
Draw your own conclusion.
"I’ve got nothing but respect for my elders.. "
Haaaaaaaaaaaaa Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
You use "old" as a term of abuse and your "let it rip" attitude would put thousands upon thousands of elderly people in early graves.
"I’ve got nothing but respect for my elders.." is up there with your "I am not a racist" and "I am not a liar" statements.
blindboy wrote:South African age distribution
Australian age distribution.
Draw your own conclusion.
You keep sharing shit trying to cause fear, yet it all just stinks of desperation.
Case numbers don't mean a thing peanut. Never have. It doesn't matter if kids catch Covid
It’s exactly like the statements that I’m not racist and I’m not a liar….completely true.
I’m restricted to stay in my house today in case an 86 year old fella with Parkinson’s needs assistance. I’ve given up my day to make sure one of my elders is looked after.
You, on the other hand, demand innocent and healthy five year olds give up their days and stay restricted to their houses because you’re an irrationally scared chickenshit softcock.
That exactly where we stand bloke.
BTW - The conclusion I’ve come to Blindboy is that you seem to think that a higher ratio of young people to old people means that no old people exist in South Africa. Well bloke ….here’s a surprise, many many old unvaccinated people live in South Africa and they’re not fucked up by omicron. Geez you’re a ghoul bloke. You are dead set desperate to find a justification for your irrational fear.
You are literally looking for excuses to yell “ See! I told you it was time to PANIC!!!!!”
Get a grip bloke. Go take an anti anxiety tablet or a shot of whiskey or something, anything. Just stop your fear mongering and trying to scare the public. It’s dangerous and you need to be locked up!
Hey blowin,
If you're not a liar and not a racist, why did you want to round up South Koreans for immediate deportation? And why did you say 50% of people in Australia weren't born here in an anti-immigrant rant?
You lie to justify your racism. It's just so funny watching you deny the freakin obvious.
blindboy wrote:South African age distribution
Australian age distribution.
Draw your own conclusion.
Yeah sure its a factor when comparing South Africa to Australia, but obviously not a factor when comparing previous waves in South Africa to current Omrican wave in South Africa.
Majority of Australia's older population is also fully vaxed and booster shots already happening unlike South Africa.
Basically the sky is not falling Omicron could even be a positive in the long run creating a higher level of natural immunity that is only a positive when coupled with our high vax rates
Indo, no the sky is not falling and no-one is panicking, but we need to be aware that case rates and hospitalisations are likely to be higher here.
My dad has a very patient personality. He’s a University graduate who worked his whole medical specialist career as his own boss. He paid a shit load of tax. He spent several hours every week for 25 - 30 consecutive years working for a local charity group. He’s never lost his temper, ever. He’s in his 80s
He (jokingly) said to me today that if the lockdowns come back he will march
The boomers don’t want you to save them, they value their freedom. They’ve done more laps than you so perhaps it’s best you stop speaking for them and learn to listen
As we are now all vaxxed, it’s time to let go of all the other (successful) measures and learn to live with this virus. It’s going to be here a long long time. Hurry up and get used to it already
Blindboy…..you know your problem bloke? It’s simple. You’re just not that smart.
In your desperation to explain why we should be so very, very scared you’ve claimed that the South African omicron Big Fuck All outcome was different to Australia because of the age demographics.
Then you put up your little phallic drawings.
The thing you failed to account for was the difference in population sizes. South Africa is twice as big. So that whilst the spread of demographics may not indicate it to a dumb carnt such as yourself, anyone else would realise that South Africa has at least as many older people as Australia.
Almost 5M over 60 …..same as Australia.
You’d better look around for another reason to justify your fear inciting chicken shit scare mongering bloke.
South Africa has just as many old people, more obese people, less vaccinated people ( lol ) , greater rates of comorbidities and poorer average health and nutrition…..and omicron is still just the flu bro.
Sort your shit out boomer. You should have the police banging on your door for inciting panic in the population.
Blindboy doesn’t talk for his age group. He talks for boomer chickenshits.
Vic Local wrote:Hey blowin,
If you're not a liar and not a racist, why did you want to round up South Koreans for immediate deportation? And why did you say 50% of people in Australia weren't born here in an anti-immigrant rant?
You lie to justify your racism. It's just so funny watching you deny the freakin obvious.
VicMoron - so much shit you dribble is lies also. Remember Andy Meddicks daughter who you kept on screaming she was bashed?
Take a look in the mirror if you want to keep calling people liars. You don't stop
burleigh wrote:Vic Local wrote:Hey blowin,
If you're not a liar and not a racist, why did you want to round up South Koreans for immediate deportation? And why did you say 50% of people in Australia weren't born here in an anti-immigrant rant?
You lie to justify your racism. It's just so funny watching you deny the freakin obvious.VicMoron - so much shit you dribble is lies also. Remember Andy Meddicks daughter who you kept on screaming she was bashed?
Take a look in the mirror if you want to keep calling people liars. You don't stop
So having a spray can thrown at your head opening up a substantial wound, that required hospital treatment, and needing to seek shelter from a bloke chasing you down isn't getting bashed according to you. Oooooooooh K.
indo-dreaming wrote:I focus wrote:One thing still missing is what effect the new variant will have on hospitalisation rates and the data hasn't come in yet it will be some thing to watch as the UK is ahead of Australia as infection rates there spiral up wards.
But we do have the data on South Africa cases, despite a crazy high infection rate the hospitslation rate is much lower than previous waves and a very low rate of people on respirators.
But South Africa is a little different, despite low vax rates it does have the advantage of a very high rate of natural immunity.
Not sure epidemiologists will fully take SA data as a guide to counties like Australia due different demographics not to mention genes etc.
The UK / US are closer as are the vaccination rates (but Oz higher) health systems / drugs available to treat COVID disease.
Still its here and we will find out soon enough.
"Stay Calm, Don’t Panic, Says South African Doctor
The head of the South African Medical Association says there is a major difference between the delta and omicron variants of the coronavirus and warns politicians against hyping the threat from the new strain.
Dr. Angelique Coetzee criticized Tuesday what she described as the “over-reaction” to the heavily mutated omicron variant by some European governments and cited Britain’s Boris Johnson, who she accused of creating “hysteria” about the new strain.
On Tuesday, the House of Commons approved the reimposition of pandemic restrictions, and the introduction of some new ones, because of rising omicron cases in the country, although Johnson faced a major rebellion by a third of his parliamentary party and relied on opposition parties for the vote.
Coetzee was one of the first medical practitioners in the world to raise the alarm about the new variant. Its genomic data was sequenced last month by scientists in Hong Kong, Botswana as well as South Africa. The emergence has contributed to pandemic alarm in Europe, where governments are already battling the delta strain and are racing to reimpose restrictions.
Coetzee told Britain’s Sky News that delta was heart-breaking and that her patients who contracted it were “extremely, extremely sick” and when opening the door to them “you just knew they were in trouble,” she explained.
But nearly a month into the omicron wave in South Africa, she says she has not seen similar grim scenes and that her omicron patients are suffering much milder symptoms. Apart from one, who had HIV and other comorbidities, none have died."
Continued here https://www.voanews.com/a/stay-calm-don-t-panic-says-south-african-docto...
It's the numbers that are more the concern, the numbers of infections will most likely be much much higher, hence even if a much smaller percentage of people really get sick the numbers could still be high.
indo-dreaming wrote:It's the numbers that are more the concern, the numbers of infections will most likely be much much higher, hence even if a much smaller percentage of people really get sick the numbers could still be high.
Exactly ID. It's not rocket science. The exponential growth in new infections from a high base tends to indicate we are at the start of a very significant wave. How does that translate to hospitalisations and deaths. I guess we will know in a couple of weeks.
Vic Local wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:It's the numbers that are more the concern, the numbers of infections will most likely be much much higher, hence even if a much smaller percentage of people really get sick the numbers could still be high.
Exactly ID. It's not rocket science. The exponential growth in new infections from a high base tends to indicate we are at the start of a very significant wave. How does that translate to hospitalisations and deaths. I guess we will know in a couple of weeks.
Significant wave in the middle of summer with 90% of Australia fully vaccinated.
Very high rate of transmission fully vaxxed to fully vaxxed at fully vaxxed establishments.
How are the premiers that keep screaming the virus "hunts down" the unvacinated going to cover this mess up?
First day of lock out here in QLD today, i visited 2 x cafes with not a problem. Absolutely nothing has changed for me, however i hear the pubs are being a bit stricter.
So Djokovic and many elite tennis players gets a jab exemption into the AO! And the way TA have structured it is either clever or stupid but basically saying they cannot disclose whether or not any player is jabbed.. They are setting up these bullshit committees to make it look like there’s a process for granting exemptions when in reality we all know that if they did mandate it they wouldn’t have a tennis tour...
But they don’t want you to know that.
Vic Local wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:It's the numbers that are more the concern, the numbers of infections will most likely be much much higher, hence even if a much smaller percentage of people really get sick the numbers could still be high.
Exactly ID. It's not rocket science. The exponential growth in new infections from a high base tends to indicate we are at the start of a very significant wave. How does that translate to hospitalisations and deaths. I guess we will know in a couple of weeks.
I thought you might have gleaned from those South Africa stats, that it grows quickly but wanes quickly too, therefore fewer - far fewer - are seriously affected. In addition, far fewer spend time in hospital, and much less time on average at that.
So yes, not rocket science, but first you have to actually take things in and process them.
Eight heart inflammation cases among young kids who got COVID-19 shot - U.S. CDC Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday it had received reports of eight cases of myocarditis, a type of heart inflammation, in children aged 5-11 years who received Pfizer (PFE.N) and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine.
The CDC had previously said that reporting rates of myocarditis for boys aged 16 to 17 could be more than 69 cases per million second doses administered and around 40 cases per million second doses in boys aged 12-15 years old. The CDC did not say whether it believes there is a link between the myocarditis cases and the vaccine, or disclose the rate of myocarditis in the age group without vaccination.
The agency said there had been over 7 million vaccine doses in the 5-11 age group at the time it examined the data, with 5.1 million first doses and 2 million second doses. The cases had a mild clinical course, the CDC said.
The cases were reported in the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and presented by the CDC to a panel of its expert advisers. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/eight-heart-inflammation-cases-seen-amo.... 5 days ago this was the story With nearly 5 million children getting COVID vaccines, no safety problems have been seen, CDC director says. "If you want your children fully vaccinated by the holidays, now is the time." https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-director-rochelle-walensky-concerns-my...
shortenism wrote:So Djokovic and many elite tennis players gets a jab exemption into the AO! And the way TA have structured it is either clever or stupid but basically saying they cannot disclose whether or not any player is jabbed.. They are setting up these bullshit committees to make it look like there’s a process for granting exemptions when in reality we all know that if they did mandate it they wouldn’t have a tennis tour...
But they don’t want you to know that.
I knew this would happen...
if we stand for this we really are pathetic
america is already sucking it up
don't accept it australia!
https://mobile.twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1437785276827545610?lang=en
Vic Local wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:It's the numbers that are more the concern, the numbers of infections will most likely be much much higher, hence even if a much smaller percentage of people really get sick the numbers could still be high.
Exactly ID. It's not rocket science. The exponential growth in new infections from a high base tends to indicate we are at the start of a very significant wave. How does that translate to hospitalisations and deaths. I guess we will know in a couple of weeks.
There is other factors too though depends on where the wave peaks at what percentage of population???
Also other factors for instance in South Africa during Delta the average hospitalisation length was about 8 days with Omicron it's averaged at only a bit over 2 days.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia