The United States(!) of A
;)
https://m.
Unseemly Donald.
Putting the great Bradman name to shame.
JFFFFFF!!! The only vids that actually carry some weight on this thread. ]
Salute!
geez 'merica, so soz, wish you had better dems, but faaark, haha, liddle donny, they're cheating, the cats and the dogs, the ice-rink, the contracts, my liddle mushroom, mexicans clean toilets, porn island, telly slutty, haha, what a funny little feller that donald is. we had a cracker of donald, hey @SR?.. deserving of the capitalised Donald. Such a normal man, he based things on ability, he reckoned an Indian was the new him.
(^ this one's structure is unsettlingly like the theme song from Kimba the White Lion)
.
It's going to be an interesting week that's for sure.
Hopefully we get a result early and it's a clear result.
The big question is can Harris win based on pretty much nothing more than not being Trump?
Biden did it, but Trump was in power and it was crazy covid times.
But now she is part of the government that not many American's are happy with especially when it comes to the economy and immigration.
Everything from here on in means little, the polls, the betting odds, articles, videos, so called scandals, believe nothing, only thing that matters now is the result.
Shit. Update 56/44.
Liz Cheyney.
Aint gonna come back from that one.
It's not the comments, it's the continued building rhetoric.
Must be making relatively normal people mighty uncomfortable right now.
So whats the latest count? The Puerto Ricans, women in general, Liz Cheyney, conservative Christians who don't enjoy watching 73 year olds performing simulated oral sex with a microphone, the veterans, the lower class, the immigrants (all and everyone of them). I'd be getting myself a new manager!
Thats the problem when you're a one man show and think you're holier than thou.
Narcissist unravelling in full public display.
And people wonder why Harris kept relatively quiet on policy and didn't go on Rogan. Why would you? The inevitable was always coming. And here it is.
why do people have to offer more than not being donald? cos @sypkan says?
(offer still stands @syp, go see the rabbit proof fence Q&A at the mercury cinema,
then go see hollow coves at the lion arts centre on the 9th, should be a good night ; )
Syppo will be spewing.
Worst case scenario,...the bloody reds have shit the bed! ;-)
Latest election animal story:
https://nypost.com/2024/11/01/us-news/donald-trumps-childhood-home-in-qu...
hahaha. That one got a deep belly laugh @VJ.
Shame that particular neighbourhood doesn't dine on the fine feline delicacy like some other places!!
basesix wrote:why do people have to offer more than not being donald? cos @sypkan says?
(offer still stands @syp, go see the rabbit proof fence Q&A at the mercury cinema,
then go see hollow coves at the lion arts centre on the 9th, should be a good night ; )
Is that a serious question?
There is lots of people that will vote purely on not liking Trump.
But a lot of people also vote on things that matter like policy, economy, immigration and other matters.
Having watched many of those street interview's where they ask people who they are voting for there is a lot of people that do say, look im not a huge fan of Trump, but my life was better under Trump and he didn't let in 10 million illegal immigrants etc.
Sportsbet US election odds
Trump 1.57
Harris 2.40
I have no idea who will win. To be sure, the most interesting part - the voting and counting on the day - is approaching. Watching primary sources of what is happening, as close to live as possible, will be riveting.
geez, Don Bradman, what he meant to people, I'm feeling embarrassed that his parents thought he was going to be a Donald. He was beyond even a Gordon or a Malcolm.
That man was a fucking Terry.
southernraw wrote:hahaha. That one got a deep belly laugh @VJ.
Shame that particular neighbourhood doesn't dine on the fine feline delicacy like some other places!!
The investor listed in the article is something like Trump Birth House LLC
So in a way, those who agree with him, really are saving the kitties. A nice conclusion to this journey.
velocityjohnno wrote:Sportsbet US election odds
Trump 1.57
Harris 2.40I have no idea who will win. To be sure, the most interesting part - the voting and counting on the day - is approaching. Watching primary sources of what is happening, as close to live as possible, will be riveting.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of either side are likely to wager a bet , I wonder if that comes into laying the odds ?
haha classic @vj.
Well shit, it would be uncharacteristic of betting agencies to skew things to their advantage wouldn't it!??
I'm sticking with my odds..they just seem to stack up....
Although having said that, i might be underestimating the stupidity of the general American person. I hope not. Pretty sure they're mostly tip top as @wax24 has observed.
southernraw wrote:haha classic @vj.
Well shit, it would be uncharacteristic of betting agencies to skew things to their advantage wouldn't it!??
I'm sticking with my odds..they just seem to stack up....
.
That doesn't make sense the betting agencies aim is to make money, they give the lowest return for the side they think will win, so they return the smallest amount of money possible.
It's based on power rankings, historical data etc, but it's also based on how much money is being put on each side the more money put on one side the more it increases the odds. (and lowers the return)
But Supa above has a point, if Trump voters are more likely to be male and people who put money on things more likely to be male, that could skew the odd's as can very large betts.
Yeah USA voters cant bet in USA but they could get around this with a VPN and the whole male demographic would be a intenatiinsal thing both ways.
Odds are definitely overcooked for Trump in betting market, if he wins it wont be by the margins betting odds suggest.
The bigger question is the polls do they still under represent Trump?, or are they now more accurate? or do they now under represent Harris?
southernraw wrote:haha classic @vj.
Well shit, it would be uncharacteristic of betting agencies to skew things to their advantage wouldn't it!??
I'm sticking with my odds..they just seem to stack up....
Although having said that, i might be underestimating the stupidity of the general American person. I hope not. Pretty sure they're mostly tip top as @wax24 has observed.
Confident enough to put a chicken parmi on it SR? ;)
Don't worry, I'm not.
They can't bet on US elections over there I believe.
Sportsbet odds would be primarily based off the aussie market I would have thought.
indo-dreaming wrote:southernraw wrote:haha classic @vj.
Well shit, it would be uncharacteristic of betting agencies to skew things to their advantage wouldn't it!??
I'm sticking with my odds..they just seem to stack up....
.That doesn't make sense the betting agencies aim is to make money, they give the lowest return for the side they think will win, so they return the smallest amount of money possible.
It's based on power rankings, historical data etc, but it's also based on how much money is being put on each side the more money put on one side the more it increases the odds. (and lowers the return)
But Supa above has a point, if Trump voters are more likely to be male and people who put money on things more likely to be male, that could skew the odd's as can very large betts.
Yep that's actually a good point Indo and something i though of after i posted it...i thought, well that doesn't make sense!
I'll take any opportunity to sink the boot into betting agencies but that was a poor moment to. Well spotted.
Regardless, i stand by my guestimate.....whatever that matters.
Unrelated but something i learnt recently.
Fun fact.
People who are unhappy on the inside are drawn to angry faces.
People who are happy on the inside are drawn to happy faces.
Scientifically proven!
Don't put a chicken parmi in front of me TS. I already have one lined up for FR!
But yeah fuck it, i'd love a chicken Parmi. You're on! haha
love that the skin stomp circle from cali bugged ian..
^ imagine if the interviewer had said 'can you play me a piano thing for 10 mins, just see what happens..'
fucking hippies totally failed. haha.
.
^ there's a couple of teeth pics here, that remind me of @Supa's mate that went to the Philippines..
long live the USA I prefer to think on, loved the place as a telly grom, hope people continue to love it, epic land.. albeit, a bit bear oriented. best of hugs @wax!
There's a place in my garden where i like to take a leak.
When i do at night, it always sounds like i'm pissing on a cats collar bell...you know the ones. To alert predators.
But the only creatures i've ever seen in that garden is a little baby rabbit (yesterday), a bandicoot named Baz, a coupla frogs, and a lizard.
So by deduction i can assume that even though everytime i hear a cat bell noise when i take a leak off the balcony, the probability based on what i've witnessed is that it's highly unlikely that it's a cat that i'm pissing on.
The point?
Trump supporters aren't like this.
They believe everything they hear. Without question.
The question is, how many Americans are like this.
Thats where the result will land.
Will be an amazing magnifying glass into the current population.
My one main concern is social media has now become the way that people decide things. Social media makes people angry, and divisive....which feeds into Donalds hands perfectly. Gonna be a fascinating watch, thankfully from a distance (although not unaffected)
maybe.. there's a time we'll call our own,
living free in harmony, taking a weeee..
balconeeee...
(pulled out the guitar and wailing this, my son is trying to finish his AIF project, but being tolerant!)
tubeshooter][quote=southernraw wrote:….
They can't bet on US elections over there I believe.
Sportsbet odds would be primarily based off the aussie market I would have thought.
Sportsbet Aussie market for sure but it appears there are legal options in the US.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/11/01/harris-election-bettin...
basesix wrote:maybe.. there's a time we'll call our own,
living free in harmony, taking a weeee..
balconeeee...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLXYTmHOMHU
(pulled out the guitar and wailing this, my son is trying to finish his AIF project, but being tolerant!)
Sick one Base. Can only enhance his concentration surely!
blackers][quote=tubeshooter wrote:southernraw wrote:….
They can't bet on US elections over there I believe.
Sportsbet odds would be primarily based off the aussie market I would have thought.Sportsbet Aussie market for sure but it appears there are legal options in the US.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/11/01/harris-election-bettin...
This article answered my question , thanks for that …….. “ Others have questioned the impact individual traders can have on odd movements, and some like pollster and Polymarket advisor Nate Silver have noted the odds may be skewed toward Trump as the demographic placing these bets could lean right politically “.
Great point @supa.
Hidden US Anomalies that impact heavily on 2024 Election
Why Republicans are still in the hunt with a Big Bully Baby as Leader.
These stats will put hidden Political Truths into context to out the flow of votes.
Firstly...(Covid)
Heavily Pop Dems fled the Cities in order to survive their own mutated self infectious plagues
Covid drove Civic minded dense [+] Dem City Pop towards Less Pop / Less Regulated Rep' regions
8% US City Hall Democratically Mandated their own flock to Less regulated more relaxed Burbs
(Fleeing 12% Tax Dem States > Moving to lower 6% Taxed Rep States)
During Covid US (7.5%) Fled 20 Highly Pop Dem States + (2.1%) from 6 Moderately Pop Rep States
(9.4%) US migrated to 14 Moderately Pop Rep States + (2.8%) to 8 lower pop Dem States
3 States never Budged
Sure! Here's some examples that highlight Wealthy Evil descend upon poor innocents
This should typecast the underbelly of Joe's Term.
Vax...Tax..$home Flee...Party State
92% 12% #10....1.1% Dem NY
85% 10% #2...... 0.9% Dem California
90% 11.8 #1....... 0.8% Dem Hawaii
Vax Tax..$home New.. Party State
69% 7.5 #32.......1.6% Rep South Carolina
63% 6.1 #28 ......0.9% Rep Tennessee
68% 7.5 #11.......0.8% Rep Montana
Note Chart fills in same Weathy Flocks Fleeing Dem's Demonic States with 2 remote outliers
Chart shares Poor Rep States harbouring shell shocked Wealthy Dem Reffos with 2 remote outliers
(Pause!) tbb almost rammed this home...but Covid data usually requires 2/3 checks.
* Were these wealthy people fleeing from Mass orchestrated higher Vaxed covid Waves (No!)
* Do All these Hi-Low Vaxed States equally still share high Covid Waves (Yes!) Only slight variation!
Ok! (So none are fleeing Covid but what is this Flip Vax Stat / Migration & Why! ..Huh!)
Gotta go 'round again > Weeding out Vax Policy...
Here's the guts of the pure Hate that the election trail pukes out...ready for this...
US flocked to any of the First States that relaxed Vax Laws...simple as that folks...
These US Voters that fled to interstate State Havens will decide your Election...
All crew here know...if this crew were livid enough to flee early then they'll likewise Jump Ship
This here is the seed to their seething hate of Govt Mandates...
Less so the Tax or the Vax but being forced to Vax...FU. (Victimized Voters have a score to settle!)
Ok! tbb can share Dual State Double Registered Voters are free to choose either State over 4 years.
Can you Vote Twice...( Aussies vote in both Oz/US elections )
Ok to share these...but! (Law implies 'intentional' Double Voting!)
tbb read between the lines to know Both Parties are informing Voters of each state to VOTE.
Meaning : Voters are only Complying with Party Directive > Thereby not 'intentionally' Voting Twice!
tbb thinks this is gonna blow up a good while after the count...(Why the delay...Huh!)
Coz Joe passed bills on Health "Auto Digital Enrol" Meaning No one can access Health Vote Data!
OMG! Is tbb saying this is a new rort...YES! (How does it work!)
When a Voter moves State & goes to Hospital > They'll "Privately" Auto enroll unless you say no!
Home state still list you & Prompt you to Vote > VOTE + Vote under "Private Health ID Number"
Medicaid Motor Voter is designed to protect Migrants ID but doubles to mask Dual State Votes...
https://responsivegov.org/research/medicaid-automatic-voter-registration...
Trump did blow this up but Dems swear it's legit...but this Max Covid exodus is an Election winner!
You watch this unfold...Massive Court Case to bust it open...Coz it breaches Patient Confidentiality!
Any voter caught out will rightly counter sue...American Style! Biggest Shit-fight until next election!
Think about the Perfect Storm...(Patient Confidentiality (vs) Voter Integrity)
Wet yer Pants USA! The Ultimate Patriot Showdown...(All here know USA will eat themselves alive)
They will unwrap their Stinky Filthy Nappies in front of the World...who has the shittiest turd!
State and / or US Health separately invite you to Vote = (Non Intentional = Not Guilty) Stacks on!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/516082-what-happens-if-you-vote-tw...
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/double-registration-and-strategic-voting-...
Just saying the stats = (Dem Devil on the side of Dr Evil (vs) In God we Trust to make it great again!)
FAQ : Outside of swellnet US of A "Where ya get these nitty gritty line in the sand duels...Huh!"
tbb roots out the Thorny Horny demon Goat weed, seeds and all.
Record Covid Migration mandated by Motor Rotor Mass Private Dual Vote REGO...
Ok! Are we done yet! Almost! ...silly tbb almost forgot to bastardize them US swing states.
If these stats are to be worth their salt they should at least out which State/s will swing!
tbb admits some data is End of 2023...but experts say it calmed back down to normal in 2024
So this data is still very relevant ~ enough to have a crack.
Q: Do 7/8 Swing States figure in Mass Vax'n'Tax Migration & if so how relevant?
Well lets bring that up for all to fairly decide...crew are free to read whatever into data!
tbb is merely presenting solid data in truly neutral scrutineer fashion...not as a keen pundit!
Vax tax% $home new% swing Party State (All the big core issues out themself)
89% 7.9% #26,,,,,0.9% 1.4% Rep ..N Carolina (Med Tax/Low Homes/Early Vax Hesitants =Rep.
67% 7.7% #27.....0.5% 0.2% Dem Georgia (Lower Vax / homes attract Hesitants > Swing to Rep!
76% 7.6% #14.....0.5% 0.3% Dem Arizona (Houses too high to attract Rep) Dem to Hold.
77% 7.4% #15 ...0.3% 2.4% Dem Nevada (Looks & smells like a Dem Honey Trap) Hold.
.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Vax tax% $home flee% swing Party State
68% 8% #39........0.2% 2.8% Dem Michigan (Hesitant Rep's bailed but offset by Dems Protest Vote!)
88% 8.4 #34........0.2% 1.2% Dem Pennsylvania (Dems getting squeezed > Protest Vote!)
73% 8.3 #33........0.1% 0.7% Dem Wisconsin (Low Vax / Mid 8 Tax can move 0.6%) May fall to Rep!
Unsettled > depends on low 7.5% Tax S/E Disaster Work sucking more 1-1.5% Northern Workforce
tbb didn't access real time Migration Data...crew can imagine North > South Workforce relocation.
Above Data clearly shows them low Vax high taxed low value homes in swing states = Protest Vote
This looks like the next wave of Migration to South / East Rep States > Low Tax / $ Home Work
They're itching to Vote Southern Style...for relief. (Again only how tbb reads it...free to have a crack!)
Low Vaxed / Low Taxed / High Value homes in Arizona / Nevada are happy to vote Dem.
As said ...Happy to share the Heart of the matter...we gave it a good shake!
tbb mostly needed to prove to himself why or how Dems are struggling...all can clearly see now!
Great read @tbb.
However i'm not convinced people's memories are as good as your own.
I'd say goldfish social media memory serves most Americans to only look back as far as the last news headline and instagram reel.
The C word is an eternity ago, unfortunately in many ways.
But you make a sound argument. Time will tell eh?
basesix wrote:geez, Don Bradman, what he meant to people, I'm feeling embarrassed that his parents thought he was going to be a Donald. He was beyond even a Gordon or a Malcolm.
That man was a fucking Terry.
Bruce Springsteen wrote a song for a long time friend (who also was a retired navy seal who also was his bodyguard whom he had known since he was a teen.)
That friend’s name? Terry.
The song? Terry’s Song.
Of course.
(i’ve tried, ya should be able to tell from The Build-up..) but i don’t like the song.
There is no point to be made.
Just an off loading of meeee.
@SR (and hey! mate) There are lotsa Stupid folks in SeppoGhetto.
And there are even more Stupid folks in SeppoLand. (which would be highly disappointing cept that i’ve had a lifetime of recognition.)
They do not comprise the majority.
That is comprised by a certain group.
Polls, Polls, Betting Sites.
Can’t capture this group, resistant to such things as they are. Soo… the backlash is the thing, and has been for some time.
@SR (and hey! mate) There are lotsa Stupid folks in SeppoGhetto.
And there are even more Stupid folks in SeppoLand. (which would be highly disappointing cept that i’ve had a lifetime of recognition.)
They do not comprise the majority.
That is comprised by a certain group.
Polls, Polls, Betting Sites.
Can’t capture this group, resistant to such things as they are. Soo… the backlash is the thing, and has been for some time.
Did i say all that TWICE?! Was not by agenda, but i like it. It needed to be said again.
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank