Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday February 16th)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning, Surf Coast Friday morning, keen experienced boardriders mid-late morning Saturday onwards, Sunday morning, Wednesday morning on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell with W/NW tending strengthening SW winds tomorrow
• Inconsistent SW groundswell building Fri with a larger pulse of mid-period swell later in the day. Fresh W/NW tending strong SW winds late AM
• Easing mix of SW swells Sat with moderate S/SE winds, easing mid-late morning and increasing a little late
• Smaller mix of moderate sized swells Sun with variable tending strengthening S/SW winds
• Moderate sized SW swell Mon with fresh to strong SW tending S/SW winds, easing Tue with fresh SE winds
• Easing surf Wed with NE tending SE winds

Recap

A good kick in new SW groundswell to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, larger to the east yesterday but with generally average conditions, best left to the keen. This morning we’ve got variable winds across all locations, tending offshore at most with a reinforcing pulse of mid-period SW swell maintaining 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft to the east on the sets. With clean conditions on the Surf Coast it’s one of the better surf mornings of late.

This week and weekend (Jan 17 - 20)

We’ll see today’s reinforcing pulse of mid-period SW swell easing into tomorrow with morning W/NW winds on the Surf Coast and sets to 2-3ft on the magnets, 3-4ft to the east. Winds will shift onshore from the SW late morning so get in early.

Moving into Friday we’ve got out mix of inconsistent, building SW groundswell and larger pulse of mid-period energy for later in the day, with the initial swell generated by a strong, slow moving low that fired up east of Heard Island Sunday evening. The swell from this source should arrive overnight tomorrow and build Friday, coming in at 2-3ft in the morning but reaching 4-5ft into the afternoon but inconsistent. The Mornington Peninsula should build from 3-5ft to 6ft+ into the afternoon but on top of this inconsistent groundswell will be a closer-range mid-period swell.

The mid-period energy will be generated by a very intense, tight low firing up on the tail of the intial weakening low, generating a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds before racing in and under the country tomorrow, generating W’ly gales briefly through our swell window before passing across Tasmania.

The initial severe-gale fetch will actually generate some inconsistent W/SW groundswell but for Sunday, with the fast movement through our swell window tomorrow, kicking up some additional size to 4-6ft on the Surf Coast with 8ft sets showing on the Mornington Peninsula late Friday.

The swell looks to ease from a similar if not slightly smaller size range, mostly 4-5ft Surf Coast with a couple of 6ft sets on the magnets, 6-8ft to the east, with Sunday holding a smaller, less consistent but fun 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east. This steadying will be linked to the distant W/SW groundswell filling in.

Winds on Friday morning will be W/NW and favourable for the Surf Coast but shifting strong SW late morning as the size really starts to build, with Saturday seeing moderate but easing S/SE winds, becoming light late morning before increasing again late. While not ideal there should be workable waves for experienced surfers late mid-late morning onwards.

A more variable breeze is due Sunday morning though there’ll likely be some slight lump in the water, well worth a surf before winds strengthen from the S/SW late morning.

Some reinforcing pulses of moderate sized SW swell are due through early to mid-next week but the persistent frontal activity being aimed just east of us will unfortunately bring persistent winds from the SW-S/SW Monday, shifting SE into Tuesday. Wednesday looks good for the beaches but it might still be a little sizey and to 4-5ft+. More on this Friday.