The Lexus Pipe Pro
January 27th - February 8th, 2025

Since late-November, the Hawaiian Islands have been experiencing a stellar run of large to extra-large swells - there's even been a couple of XXL swells in the mix. The HIC Haleiwa Pro, Vans Pipeline Masters, and Da Hui Backdoor Shootout, all benefitted from this consistent run of waves.

With the waiting period for the Lexus Pipe Pro kicking off in a week’s time (Monday the 27th of January), we all want to know if the run is set to continue?

In short, no...but there are caveats.

Molly Picklum at ease in a Backdoor cavern during last year's Pipe Pro (WSL/Heff)

Since late-November, the North Pacific jetstream - which effectively drives the surface weather - has been robust and sustained, consistently spawning swell-generating lows from a favourable corner of the basin.

However, the North Pacific is entering a more uncertain period with the jetstream expected to develop significant wobbles over the next fortnight.

Heading into the start of the waiting period for the Lexus Pipe Pro, it’s forecast to weaken and become more meridional (aligned more north to south) which results in cut-off lows and less reliable swell-generating systems.

Though the shift in the North Pacific jetsream doesn't look like much it results in storms on a more north-south axis - see next graph for the results

When the jestream is robust and following its classic path - as it was through all December and early-January - storms transition from west to east; they reliably generate north-west swell that follows a path down and across the N Pac basin, striking Hawaii, and if large enough the shores of North, Central, and South America.

With the jestream moving into a more meridional alignment we’re looking at weaker, more north to south aligned systems, which will in turn bring less favourable north swell energy.

But there will be swell...hence the caveats.

One such low is forecast to develop north of Hawaii early next week, but it’ll be whisked away quickly to the north, resulting in a short-lived, mid-period swell late on Day One, peaking on Day Two.

Depending on the strength of the low, the surf could reach the 5-6ft range though there’s some divergence surrounding the storm's core wind strength. At this stage it looks to be at the smaller end of the scale. We'll keep a close eye on this as it'll most likely be the swell that kicks the event off.

Rather than pure long-range northwest swells, the shifting jetstream will create more short-lived northerly swells, such as this one due late on Day One of the waiting period. Note also the band of easterly gales blowing across the Kuril Islands, which is where most classic northwest swells originate.

Following this, a secondary intensification of northerly gales off the Aleutian islands may generate a secondary pulse of northerly swell for the middle of the waiting period, though again we’ll have to watch this closely. When the North Pacific is behaving like this the forecasts are more like Australia's East Coast - open to quick changes - than the typical Hawaiian certainty.

The second half of the waiting period remains up in the air with the current divergence for early next week so check back through the comments as things become clearer and then an updated forecast over the coming week.

What we can say is, though the pattern has changed, there's enough energy in the North Pacific basin to provide a few days of reasonable swell, and when it comes down to it that's all the organisers need.

//CRAIG BROKENSHA