Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 27 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small flukey south swell Mon/Tues
• More small S swell Thurs
• NE windswell building Mon PM, holding into Tues before a late S change
• Small short range SE swell Wed/Thurs
• Nothing much this weekend- small, weak windswells with light winds
• Small wind swells into early next week
• Tropics fires up next week, should see a small increase in E/NE swell later next week
• Juicier E-E/NE swells potentially on the cards by next weekend- low confidence in specifics, check back Wed

Recap

The weekend’s S swells came in at the optimistic end of f/cast expectations with Sat seeing morning light winds delivering clean conditions across most of the region with S facing beaches picking up 3ft sets, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. Sun morning continued the theme of clean surf with a mix of easing short range and long range S swell still showing some 2-3ft surf across S facing stretches. S swell continues to hang in there this morning with sets to 3ft and some minor NE windswell also in the mix. More S swell is expected this a’noon and tomorrow.  Morning light N’lies are expected to tend NE and freshen to speeds in excess of 20kts through the a’noon further reinforcing local NE windswells. 

S swells over the weekend showed nicely

This week (Jan 27-31)

Still a patchy outlook for the short term with a weak high tracking across the Tasman and some frontal activity approaching from below the Bight. This frontal activity will combine with a trough to deliver a S’ly change tomorrow a’noon across temperate NSW along with a small flush of S swell through Wed/Thurs. The trough lingers in the Central Tasman and holds a small signal of SE swell through the second half of this week. A very low energy spell ensues following that. Longer term is starting to look more dynamic as the tropics finally starts to fire up. Multiple low pressure systems are suggested on long range model guidance, potentially tropical cyclones. There’s no clear model trends yet so we’ll outline the possibilities and track them through the week and see how they shape up.

In the short run the NE infeed into the approaching trough fires up through today and o/night into tomorrow morning, whipping up NE windswell into the 3-4ft range (bigger on the South Coast) through tomorrow morning and into the lunch session.  S groundswell holds some 2-3ft sets early, easing during the day. The S’ly change should be across the Illawarra just after lunch, spreading into Sydney between school pick-up and 5pm, reaching the Hunter before dark. A window of opportunity at North facing beaches as the S’ly hits is likely to be brief as winds quickly shift S/SE. 

Early winds on Wed will still be mod S’ly, with just a brief window of SW-S/SW winds likely north of the Harbour. Those winds will tend SE and moderate fairly quickly after lunch. S swells will be mostly short range and low period so keep expectations pegged low for quality- there should be enough size around, in the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks for a wave. Conditions improve by degrees in the a’noon but size eases too. There will be some traces of longer period S swell in the mix from the parent low well to the S but not much size or consistency in that signal, offering up an inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft wave at S facing beaches. 

Small mixed bag of S quadrant swells to wind down the working week. The remnants of the trough linger in the Tasman with a constrained fetch of SE breezes aimed at Central NSW (see below). That will provide surf in the 2ft range Thurs, with some better quality S swell to 2-3ft,  with light SE-E/SE breezes expected. Typical summer grovel conditions. 

Smaller surf for Fri morning with light morning land breezes tending to weak SE-E breezes during the day. Should be a good day for kids and learners to get out the back with a few peaky 2ft sets, ebbing away during the day into the 1-2ft range. 

This weekend (Feb1-2)

Not much swell energy inbound for the weekend. Absent anything more meaningful popping up we’ll see new high pressure slide into the Tasman with a weak fetch of SE breezes in the Tasman which should keep surf from going flat. Not much size though- 1-2ft tops, but with light winds conditions should be suitable for kids and learners. 

Light winds into Sun morning offer more clean but small and weak surf less than 2ft. Through the a’noon we’ll see winds start to kick up from the NE and reach moderate paces, possibly just strong enough to generate some minor NE windswell for the very keen.

Next week (Feb3 onwards)

Eyes to the north next week as the tropics finally shows signs of firing up this summer. Model runs have been all over the place as they struggle to resolve an active monsoon trough which extends out from Northern Australia across the Coral Sea and into the South Pacific Island chains. 

Multiple low pressure centres are possible along this monsoon trough line, including tropical cyclones. With a week lead time there’ll be lots of revision as we head into the event so keep in mind this is just a broad sketch of potentials. We’ll dial in details as we get more information and consistency between models and between model runs. 

At least for temperate NSW we’ll see a small start to next week with small E-E/NE windswells through the first half of the week. Expect grovelly surf in the sub 2ft range through this period. 

By Thurs we should start to see an increase in E/NE swell for the region, as the Southern extent of the supporting wind field across single or multiple tropical lows migrates southwards. Initially this looks modest, say up into the 2-3ft range through Thurs and into Fri.

Further ahead, if one or more lows move south into the Tasman we may see a juicier E quadrant swell for temperate NSW into the weekend 8-9/2. Long way-out yet so confidence is very low on specifics. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up- it’s certainly a very late start but it looks like a significant summer swell event is becoming more likely. 

Seeya Wed.