Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 15th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Steadily easing swell Sat, tiny Sun and early Mon
• Small flush of S'ly swell late Mon, prob with an onshore change
• Solid S'ly swell Tues but with breezey southerlies
• Better S/SE tending SE swell Wed/Thurs, lingering S'ly quadrant winds - but prob the best waves of the forecast period
• Easing Fri onwards, with an potential (unseasonable) tropical swell source long term

Recap

Solid south swell on Thursday reached 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches, easing from a similar size this morning, with smaller surf at beaches not open to the south. W’ly tending SW then S/SW winds on Thursday gave way to straight offshore breezes all day today.

This weekend (July 16-17)

No change to the weekend trend outlook, with the current south swell easing rapidly through Saturday and tiny conditions expected for Sunday. 

Given sets were still pushing 4ft this afternoon, we may see a few stray 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets early Saturday (mainly north from Sydney to the Hunter) but expect a steady decrease in size through the morning, along with smaller waves at most other beaches. It’ll be clean with light NW winds. Aim for an early surf to maximise your size potential.

Sunday will be very small indeed with minor peripheral sources keeping the swell magnets just rideable under a freshening N/NW tending NW breeze. Most other beaches will be tiny to flat.

Next week (July 18 onwards)

Tiny conditions will persist into Monday morning, but a powerful frontal system associated with an amplifying long wave trough will have swept across Tasmania latitudes late Sunday, and it’ll enter NSW’s south swell window before dawn. 

The main energy won’t arrive until Tuesday (sourced from the broader frontal system) but Monday afternoon should see a spread of south swell from W/SW tending SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait (overnight Sunday). This should produce late 3ft sets at south facing beaches however we will probably see a concurrent wind change to the same direction, rendering the swell magnets quite bumpy. So keep your expectations low as most other beaches will remain rtiny thanks to the short swell period and acute southerly direction.

Tuesday’s size increase will be accompanied by persistent though gradually easing southerly winds. We should see a brief window of early SW’ers at a few spots (mainly Northern Beaches) but with sets pushing 5-6ft at south facing beaches, you’ll have to aim for a sheltered location for smaller but cleaner options. 

While this is going on, a new Tasman Low will have developed in the wake of the front, off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island. Model guidance is even suggesting a slight retrograde back towards the Australian mainland into Wednesday (see below); either way this suggests better surf prospects for Wed/Thurs as the swell direction slowly veers S/SE then SE, and winds abate from the south (still enough to cause a few wobbles, though early morning should offer clean conditions under a light local flow). 

Let’s ballpark size around the 4-5ft mark though I wouldn’t rule out the chance for an upgrade in this pattern and thus bigger surf outlook.

Longer term has some some ordinarily unseasonable tropical activity in the Coral Sea, which is seemingly becoming the norm. It’s a long way out and should be viewed with caution, but certainly suggests another pattern of dynamic activity in the Tasman Sea may not be terribly far away.

Have a great weekend!