Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 11th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Size holding Mon with winds still an issue. Likely SW inshore early, tending S-SSW and easing in the a’noon
• Clean, with easing but still sizey surf Tues
• Steep spike in raw S swell Thurs, with fresh S’ly winds
• Easing in S swell Fri with winds improving
• Small surf Sat with clean conditions, becoming tiny Sun with continuing clean conditions
• Dynamic, troughy outlook continues, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Saturday was the best day of the weekend with a morning offshore and size in the 3-5ft range, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter. There was a brief period of lighter winds Sun morning but it was pretty scrappy from first light, with size in the 4-5ft range. Our increase in swell came a bit later than expected but by close of play it was roaring with sets in the 10-12ft range under fresh S-SSE winds. Today has seen more large surf in the 8-10ft range, mostly maxed, out with a few sheltered spots handling the size and leftover storminess. An easing trend is in play now, with more settled conditions ahead. Read on for details.

Most beaches still maxed out and stormy today

This week (July 11-15)

The synoptic set-up this week is essentially the same as we described it in Friday’s notes. The remnants of the Tasman Low (ex ECL) are now drifting near the South Island, on top of a large high which is slowly moving out of the Tasman Sea. A high is approaching from the South Australian interior, with a trough expected to form off the coast later Tues and develop a broad, relatively weak low in the Central/Northern Tasman. It’s still a tricky set-up, but nowhere near as dynamic as the last couple of weeks. 

Tomorrow still looks like the best day of the forecast. Size will have eased a lot from the peak today but we’re still looking at a good looking 4-6ft of mid period SE swell and co-operative winds as weak high pressure drifts over the region. That should see offshores lingering well into the lunch or post-lunch surf with a light, late N’ly to close out the day. 

By Wed, a trough starts to stir off the coast and in response to a cold front pushing up past Tasmania we’ll see increasing SW winds tending S’ly through the a’noon as the trough forms into a large area of low pressure. Early birds will find leftover SE swell in the 2-3ft range at exposed breaks, but expect conditions to really deteriorate through the a’noon as S’ly winds whip up.

The developing low forms a strong, but thin fetch along the NSW Coast (see below), with a resulting spike in S swell through Thurs. For practical purposes we’ll be surfing “in the fetch” so expect a raw and ragged S swell. There should be plenty of size on offer though, with S facing beaches building from 3-4ft during the morning up into the 6ft+ range during the a’noon, bigger 8 or even 10ft on the really exposed S facing coasts like the Hunter. With strong S’lies keep expectations pegged very low for quality. It’s a lay day apart from the most sheltered spots.

We’re expecting that raw and rapid spike in S swell to ease during Friday as the thin, coastal fetch migrates away rapidly. The fetch lingers on the more Eastern side of the Tasman, enough to see a mix of easing S swells and some mid period SSE swell in the mix Friday. Expect size in the 4-5ft range early, bigger 6ft on the Hunter, dropping down into the 3ft range during the a’noon. Winds still look to have a bit of lingering S’ly flow about them, likely SW early. They’ll lay down through the a’noon as pressure gradients continue to ease across temperate NSW. Fri a’noon should be a nice rinse off from the working week.

This weekend (July 16-17)

Looks like a weekend of mostly offshore winds ahead, as high pressure sits in the Tasman at a much more northerly latitude than we’ve seen so far this Winter. In conjunction with approaching fronts that should drive a more W/NW to NW flow across most of the NSW Coast- a more typical late Winter/early Spring flow.

Surf-wise we are looking at decreasing energy with Saturday seeing the best of it. Not much more than 2-3ft of leftover SSE-SE surf, favouring open beaches and S facing spots under the prevailing winds. There won't be much energy and what there is will be easing through the day.

By Sunday surf is expected to have dropped right back to tiny levels. 1-2ft at exposed S facing beaches, and easing back during the day. Tiny elsewhere. Worth a look around/grovel with favourable winds.

Next week (July 18 onwards)

Few small days to start the next week. GFS has a weak, blocking pattern with a suppressed Southern Storm track, that likely to see Mon and Tues maintain tiny surf with a slight lift in S swell Wed.

EC has a much more bullish outlook with a vigorous Tasman low forming Tues/Wed next week, suggesting a stiff ramping up in S to SE swell from as early as Wed next week.

Pencil a couple of small days either way, to start the week and we’ll come back Wed and hope the European model takes the bikkies.