Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 12 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small kick in S swell Sat AM, with offshore winds, easing through the day
• Stronger S swell Sun AM, easing PM with all day W winds
• Small S swell leftovers Mon (mostly tiny away from S swell magnets) with continuing offshore winds
• Solid S swell Tues with offshore winds AM, tending S'ly PM
• New pulse of S/SSE swell Wed with light winds AM, tending NE in the PM
• Likely NE windswell by end of next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Mixed bag of surf, mostly on the poor side since Wed. There’s been some swell, ranging from 2-3ft at exposed S facing beaches yesterday but S’ly quarter winds generally equated to poor conditions. A mix of local windswell from the E from an infeed into the trough and interior low and some S swell today is in the 3ft range across most of the region, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. Winds are all over the place, as a complex low migrates from the interior to exit the coast south of Jervis Bay. Periods of S’ly winds are now being supplanted by a more offshore SW/NW flow, especially in the North of the region, which is leading to a few fun, afterwork options on a Fri a’noon.

This weekend (Nov 13-14)

A few slight changes for the weekend f/fast. Read on for details.

Winds will be from the Western quadrant all weekend with the caveat that areas south of Sydney on the Illawarra will see periods of SW winds, especially late Sat into early Sun as an area of winds slingshots around the south-west to western flank of the low. These winds will tend more W/NW up  on the Hunter.

Thur/Friday’s low which formed E of Tasmania has proven to be a bit weaker than models anticipated so Sat’s S swell is likely to be a notch smaller than called on Wed. Expect 2-3ft surf at the best S swell magnets, possibly some 3ft sets on the Hunter. Clean under fresh W’ly quarter winds.  Expect a slight roll off in size through the a’noon. 

Sunday gets a little upgrade, in energy at least. A coast hugging fetch of gales whips past the NSW South Coast overnight Sat, into the early hours of Sun, before the low moves away rapidly during the day. That proximate fetch should be well timed to deliver a few 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches Sun morning, under W’ly winds. It’s only a brief flush of S swell so expect the morning peak in size to back down substantially through the day, especially in the a’noon. 

Next week (Nov15) and beyond

A trough in advance of a cold front sweeping through the SE on Sun re-energises the W’ly flow through Mon but we’ll be on the backside of Sundays pulse so leftover S swell is expected to be below 2ft at S facing beaches, tiny/flat at most spots. 

The cold front is associated with a strong low and deep SW fetch though which sees a steep increase in directional S swell which should be in the water Tues morning, fanned by stiff W through WSW winds through the morning session. Expect size in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches, bigger 3-5ft on the Hunter and surf is expected to thicken up during the day. A ridge building in behind the front sees winds swing S to SSE through the day so the morning session is likely to have the best conditions.

Wednesday looks to have plenty of potential for good surf, with light land breezes early, tending to NE seabreezes in the a’noon. A compact area of severe gale winds is expected to track northwards through the Tasman as the entire system tracks across the Tasman on Mon. This sees a nice pulse of S to SSE swell through Wed, likely in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches, with good odds for a great window at S facing reefs during the day. 

High pressure drifts off the Central/Southern NSW coast by mid next week. This brings a regime of NE winds to the region by Thurs, with decreasing levels of leftover S swell. 

Models then diverge with EC suggesting a trough in the Central Tasman and a more solidified sub-tropical trough/low in the Coral Sea, with more potential for surf in the sub-tropics than temperate NSW. N’ly winds are likely to increase either way through the end of next week, with good odds for a round of NE windswell into Fri and possibly Sat.

There’s simply too much model disagreement into next weekend to have much confidence in the f/cast, but it does seem like the La Nina pattern is ready to kick off a more substantial low pressure development in the favourable window north of the North Island, which was identified in the latest ENSO update from Craig.

Check back Mon, and we’ll have a full and fresh update on the week ahead.

Have a great weekend in the meantime.