Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Nov 10 )

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell leftovers Thurs AM before S'ly change
• Modest increase in S swell Thurs PM/ holding Fri AM before easing, with clean leftovers Fri PM as winds swing offshore
• Small kick in S swell Sat AM, with offshore winds, easing through the day
• Stronger S swell Sun, easing Mon with all day W winds
• Solid S swell Tues with offshore winds AM, tending S'ly PM
• Potential for solid S swell end of next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

Small surf has been the order of the day since Mon, with weak S swells providing 2ft surf through Tuesday, slighter larger 2-3ft on the Hunter with S’ly winds that tended variable during the day. Size has dropped back further today from that source, with NE windswell starting to develop as a local N’ly fetch kicks in and NE winds become dominant. Nothing over 2ft has been recorded through the region, surfable for the keen.

This week (Nov 10-12)

The synoptic chart remains complex and dynamic with a spider web of troughs across the country, emanating from an inland low and weak low pressure systems in the Tasman sea and straddling Tasmania. No great pressure gradient squeezes are on offer at present with only flabby high pressure drifting NE in the Tasman sea. The troughy pattern will see multiple wind changes through to the end of the week with some flukey swells on offer before the inland low enters the Tasman this weekend and supplies a slightly larger S swell. A stronger front Mon next week, tied to a polar low, is still on track to deliver a more substantial S swell event early next week. 

Short term and low pressure consolidates E of Tasmania through tomorrow, bringing a stiff S’ly change to the region early in the morning, with winds tending SE by the a’noon as a weak ridge forms along the Central/South coast of NSW. Todays N’ly winds continue overnight which will leave small NE windswell on offer through the morning, which will quickly fade through the day. Expect a max of 2ft NE swell at the most reliable NE magnets, easing quickly during the day. Short period S swell kicks in through the a’noon, but this will be small and wind affected, so keep expectations pegged very low if you are keen for a surf.

Friday continues the merry-go-round of wind changes. Thursdays low scoots quickly away towards New Zealand and an E’ly infeed into the advancing inland low sees E to SE winds through the morning, leading to mucky, straight onshore surf with a mix of easing S swell and onshore windswell for the super keen.

Friday a’noon is potentially interesting due to the inland low exiting the South Coast during the day, with winds swinging SW to WNW during the a’noon. Error bars are large on this event due to model divergence over the exact location of the exiting low. EC runs the low out roughly E of Jervis Bay, with SE’ly winds below the low, S’ly to SW’ly winds extending from Jervis Bay to Sydney and a more W’ly flow north of Sydney to the Hunter.

GFS has the low further north off the Sydney Basin, with onshore winds extending further North, and the W’ly outflow also located further North. 

We’ll have to keep tabs on local winds Fri and update in comments.

At stake is a mix of short period E to SE swell trains and some longer period S swell with size in the 2-3ft range at S exposed beaches. Potentially clean if the offshore flow kicks in mid-a’noon but probably not worth burning fuel for.

This weekend (Nov 13-14)

No great change for the weekend at this stage, although there is still scope for changes in details as the pattern unfolds over the next couple of days.

The inland low exits the coast Fri, bringing a fresh W’ly flow which is expected to span the weekend. With the strongest winds on the northern flank of the low, pushing away from the coast, the scope for swell generation is limited from this system.

It’s not a total fizzer. Sat sees some longer period S swell from the Tasman low Thurs in the 3ft range but will level down a notch in the a’noon  into the 2ft range at S facing beaches, 2-3ft on the Hunter as that source eases back in the mix. Small size will be offset by offshore winds, which will make for groomed conditions.

Sunday still looks the better bet. A proximate fetch of SSW to SW gales along the South Coast and extending southwards into the Tasman Sea adjacent to Tasmania during Sat, provides a small flush of S swell which should peak Sun in the 2-3ft range, possibly bigger 3ft on the Hunter. With offshore winds continuing through the day it’ll be worth chasing something down at a S exposed beach or reef.

Next week (Nov15) and beyond

Offshore winds continue through Mon as a strong cold front pushes up into the interior and maintains the stiff W’ly flow. Not much surf is expected Mon, just a few small leftovers from the S, and possibly a weak NE windswell from pre-frontal winds along the Mid North Coast. 

The fetch associated with the front, tied to a deep polar low, is a swell producer. We’ll need to see how the storm shapes up to finesse the specifics but gales out of Bass Strait and a deeper fetch of SW/SSW gales pushing NE into the Tasman through Mon, see S swell building rapidly through Tuesday. Expect size to push up into the 3-5ft range during the day, after a slightly undersized start. Winds look a bit iffy, with another trough in the Central Tasman quickly seeing winds shift from WSW to SSE/SE through the day. 

Onshore winds remain an issue through Wed, most likely, as the trough drives an onshore pattern through most of NSW. Solid S swell in the 4-5ft range, bigger 6ft on the Hunter through the morning will be wind affected at this stage, with winds possibly tending more NE through the day. Hopefully we’ll be in a better state with winds when we come back on Fri.

Longer term and the next high pressure system tracking through Australian longitudes is located at a very southern latitude. This position sets it up to be a good source of cradling any low pressure developing in the Tasman next week.  Major weather models diverge greatly over the outcome of this, but both suggest low pressure in the lower Tasman later next week, with good prospects for swell generation into next weekend 20/21 Nov. 

Check back in on Fri and we’ll update this prospect as well as take a final look at the weekend outlook. 

See you then.