Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Saturday 26th December)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small peaky NE swell Sun, marginally bigger Mon
• S'ly change spreading along the coast during Monday
• Small average waves through the middle of the week
• Building E/SE swells from Friday, potentially solid through the weekend 
• Plenty of trade swell next week

Recap: We’ve had plenty of waves over the last few days, with intermittent cyclone swell from TC Yasa offering selective 4ft sets on Thursday at some Southern NSW coasts - but not all - it’s been an unusual distribution right across the East Coast from this event. Size then eased back to 3ft on Friday and then 2-3ft today, with very long breaks between the bigger waves. Also in the mix over the last few days was a slow mix of southerly swells to 2-3ft. Winds have been variable - Thursday was clean with morning variable winds, but freshening S/SE winds on Friday spoiled conditions at most spots. An improvement occurred today (south from the Hunter) with winds veering light NW, though onshores persisted across the Newy/Cenny Coast stretch, temporarily easing through the morning before restrengthening this afternoon. 

Saturday morning peaks on the Coal Coast

This weekend and next week (Dec 27 onwards)

We’ve got a period of small surf ahead, with the Tasman Sea expected to remain devoid of significant swell generating systems for a few days. 

However there are a few peripheral systems that’ll keep open beaches active with waves. And the long term outlook is quite active.

Freshening E/NE winds this afternoon feeding into an inland trough will turn NE then N/NE overnight, then NW for a brief period early Sunday as the trough temporarily pushes offshore and the process restarts again on Sunday. 

These local winds should kick up small NE windswells for Sunday (2ft) and then Monday (2-3ft) though no major quality or strength is expected. Both mornings should see pockets of light winds, offering the cleanest surf, but expect Sunday afternoon to be dominated with freshening NE breezes. 

Our current small S’ly swell is expected to fade into Sunday so expect much smaller surf at south facing beaches in the 1-2ft range on Sunday. It’ll probably be all gone by the afternoon.

A gusty S’ly change is then expected to push along the Southern NSW coast on Monday, reaching the South Coast early morning, the Illawarra mid-morning and then Sydney around lunchtime. Building windswells are expected in the wake of the change but nothing worth getting excited about (2ft+ south swell magnets late afternoon). 

As such Monday morning is looking like offering fun peaky waves across open beaches with light offshore winds, but you’ll have to be quick (especially south of the ‘Gong) to beat the change. 

Monday’s change will then stall across the Mid North Coast through the middle of the week. A small SE fetch may develop along its southern flank of the associated torugh as it broadens eastwards across the Tasman Sea, but it’s not expected to be much of a swell producer; if we’re super lucky we may see some 2-3ft sets later Tuesday and into Wednesday but this is a pretty optimistic view right now. 

Otherwise, expect small residual swells from the NE and S for most of Tuesday (2ft max exposed beaches) with light winds tending onshore.

The end of the week looks interesting with a strengthening ridge across the coast expected to build short range E/SE swells from overnight Thursday through into Friday (see below). There's also some potential for a reasonable degree of size into the weekend thanks to the influence of a coastal trough off SE Qld around the same time (tightening the E'ly squeeze between the two). However this scenario looks like it’ll be quite wind affected - and also wet - so it’s hardly an inspiring outlook at this stage. But, there should be plenty of swell. 

Long term beyond next weekend into the following week looks really promising with a large blocking high in the Tasman Sea directing a broad E/NE fetch through our swell window, providing an extended run of decent trade swell for the entire East Coast. All we’ll have to do is cherry pick those days with the most favourable winds. 

More on that in Monday’s update. See you then!