Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 5th June)

Best Days: Most days (except Monday) should have a good swell/wind combo.

Recap: Thursday saw large S’ly swells in the 8ft+ range across many south facing beaches, slightly bigger than forecast, though the southerly swell direction saw the usual wide variation in size across the coast with much smaller surf at protected southern ends. Early W/SW winds were reported at many beaches through the morning but it swung S/SW into the afternoon. Today has seen a steady drop in size to 4-5ft and conditions have been nice and clean with light variable winds. 

Late Friday slabs at Shark Island

Manly stretch looking fun this arvo

This weekend (June 6-7)

There’s another pulse of SE swell due to fill in from anytime about now onwards, which should provide a great morning of waves on Saturday with light variable winds keeping conditions clean. 

Open beaches are likely to see inconsistent 4ft sets, though southern ends will be smaller and general surf size may be a little smaller south from the Illawarra (the responsible fetch off New Zealand’s West Coast was aimed towards more northern locales). There’ll also be some small S’ly swell in the mix too, from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait today in association with a passing front. 

Saturday’s SE swell will ease through the late afternoon and overnight, and should be back to an inconsistent 2ft for Sunday.

However, we still have a small long period S’ly groundswell on the way, generated by a polar low well below the continent over the last few days. The leading edge of this swell is due into the South Coast very late Saturday afternoon and should provide a full day of very inconsistent, but fun 3ft+ waves at most south facing beaches. Some of the more reliable south swell magnets (such as the Hunter) could pick up the odd bigger bombs near 4-5ft+ range, owing to the expected large wavelengths. Though, expect very long breaks between waves. 

Sunday’s winds look reasonably good overall but a weak low forming off the Far South Coast during the morning will push fresh southerly winds across some coasts during the day. Model guidance has pulled back the timing across Sydney and Hunter coasts, so at this stage it’s looking like the Illawarra could see good conditions up until early afternoon, with the southerly breeze then affecting Sydney mid-late afternoon onwards. 

As such there should be some nice waves up until lunchtime at many regions. Get in early!

Next week (June 8 onwards)

Sunday’s low off the South Coast has been successively downgraded over the last few model runs, and therefore early next week isn’t looking terribly large in the size department.

Monday will probably see southerly wind-affected waves of no major size (say, 3ft+ south facing beaches), and there’s a suggestion in the European model that an easterly fetch may develop on the low’s southern flank during the day, delivering a short range swell for Tuesday. But model consensus is low so it’s not a confident swell right now. Keep your expectations low from this pattern, and aim for a morning paddle when local terrrestrial effects are most likely to influence local winds to have some degree of SW.

Anyway, the rest of next week is looking a little slow surf wise - but there will be waves most days.

A weak ridge of high pressure will maintain clean conditions all week (from Tuesday onwards) and the biggest influence on the surf will be small long period southerly swells from migrating polar lows. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are all best positioned for the most size (peaking around 3-4ft), but I’ll firm up the specifics in Monday’s notes. 

We’ll also see some small long range E/NE swell from a distant system (currently in the Tahitian region) arriving around Thursday but no major size is expected due to the large travel distance. 

Have a great weekend!