Improving surf over the coming days
Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 31st)
Best Days: Selected spots to the east from mid-late morning tomorrow, Sunday ahead of sea breezes, Monday, Tuesday morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Inconsistent, small SW groundswell tomorrow AM, with a more consistent mid-period W/SW swell for the PM, easing Sun
- Light E/SE winds tomorrow morning, tending lighter E/NE for a period mid-late AM to the east ahead of sea breezes
- Variable winds Sun AM, freshening from the N/NE during the morning with mid-late PM sea breezes
- Moderate sized SW groundswell pulse for Mon, easing Tue
- Variable winds Mon AM, tending N/NE during the morning with NE winds into the PM (SE to the west)
- Mod-fresh N/NE winds to the east Tue, N/NW to the west in the AM ahead of a strong, early PM S/SW change
- Strong S winds Wed
- Moderate sized mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswell and mid-period swell Thu with gusty E/SE-SE winds
Recap
The surf was still up in the 3-4ft range across the Surf Coast yesterday morning but with average, fresh S’ly winds that strengthened through the day.
Today the swell is back to 2-3ft and early fresh winds have eased a little on the Surf Coast providing OK waves for the keen.
This week and weekend (Feb 1 - 7)
Looking at the weekend ahead and we’ve got a couple of new swell sources with Sunday being the pick of it.
Tomorrow morning, a new, inconsistent SW groundswell should be in in the water, generated by a small, tight but strong polar low that was in the Heard Island region earlier this week.
An infrequent 2ft+ wave is due on the Surf Coast with 4ft+ sets to the east, while a more consistent, slightly bigger mid-period W/SW swell is due through the afternoon.
This swell was generated by a relatively weak but elongated frontal system moving in under the country the last two days with the swell due to build to a more noticeable 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets through the afternoon, 4-6ft to the east, easing from 2-3ft and 4-5ft respectively Sunday morning.
Local winds tomorrow are a little dicey and E/SE across most locations through the morning, likely tending more variable E/NE for a period mid-late morning ahead of sea breezes.
With this the late morning surf might be the pick.
Sunday is better with variable, locally offshore winds early, freshening from the N/NE to the east through the morning with sea breezes only due later into the afternoon.
Into Monday, our new pulse of SW groundswell with favourable winds is still on track, with a tight, south-east tracking low due to generate a short-lived burst of gale to severe-galeforce W’ly winds.
A kick to 3ft+ is due on the Surf Coast through Monday with 5-6ft sets due to the east with variable, local offshore winds, tending N/NE through the morning, then NE into the afternoon east of Melbourne, weak SE to the west.
Tuesday looks fun with morning offshores across all locations along with easing surf, N/NW to the west and N/NE to the east before a trough brings a S/SW change early afternoon.
Following Tuesday’s change, strong S’ly winds will create poor conditions Wednesday, shifting more E/SE-SE on Thursday along with a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell.
There’s a chance that winds tend lighter E’ly to the east but we’ll review this next week.
The swell source will be a strong, healthy low that formed south of South Africa mid-week, with it generating a great fetch of W’ly gales in our far swell window. The low will weaken while projecting towards Western Australia on the weekend, but continue to maintain a broad fetch of strong W/SW winds through our western swell window.
One final projection of W/SW winds under the country towards us early next week should help the local size, with us seeing mostly mid-period energy, mixed in with some very inconsistent groundswell.
We should see some building size Wednesday but a peak is due Thursday with 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east.
Friday’s winds as the swell eases are up for grabs and might be onshore, but check back Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Hoax coast strikes again! Committing to 1 year of avoiding MP, starting today…
Yep banks all time bad right now
this is the message i sent too my surfing chat group.
C@#$%^& A& google review
beach experience 9/10
wind direction 9/10
swell 5/10 ( too big and too inconsistant)
sand banks 2.5/10
keeping in mind i had too choose a location family friendly for low tide rockpool playtime then the adults got a crack after.
also i surf the tub once a week so expetation is always too high for ocean.
no doubt there were great waves at selected spots.
Nearly 60 knots SW at South Channel and Aireys is blowing NE?
Lots of variability in the wind with these huge thunder clouds going over. Have had rain from 3 different directions in the yard watching it. Some magnificent colours, deep gunsmoke blues, even a seafoam teal kind of glow in some of the big clouds - like the colour the foam is when you get caught inside badly Down South in WA
Have a look at BOM radar, looks like a NW flow but it's varying at sea level, there was a strong SE blowing into it about 5pm on the coast.
Vic emergency going nuts with building damage/trees down in Geelong at present.
Been a crazy evening, such good watching in the backyard with a couple of cold ones. Feels like all around us in Torquay was getting smashed and we just had this little shield that pushed it out to the surrounding areas. Love it
looked like a black patch on the BOM radar had stalled over Avalon for about a hour or two around 530pm onwards.
Saw that, like it was emanating out of the ground at Bannockburn and heading in a SE direction as a line. Some major damage to structures in G town today, flooding and sandbagging too.
Looks like another round brewing to Geelongs west right now
I am not sure if today , Monday will be big enough in W.P . to warrant a drive down there. I cannot see a bombie in the channel on the surf cams. .Bring on Autumn and cooler weather all round I say.
You might be in luck Mr t this arvo