Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th March)

Best Days: Thurs: pulsey round of energy from the south, mainly light winds. Fri: smaller from the south, and a small E/NE swell, clean early. Sat: small clean NE windswell early. Sun: potentially large S'ly swell, though windy from the SW. Sun: quality mix of strong S'ly, then E/NE swells with mainly light winds. 

Recap: A fleeting pulse of southerly swell glanced the Southern NSW coast on Tuesday, though a more definitive swell has built in size today, reaching 3ft across Sydney’s south facing beaches and 4ft through the Hunter. Wave heights are much smaller at beaches not directly open to the south.

Early arvo sets in Newcastle

This week (Mar 28 - 29)

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Today’s new south swell was the first in a series of southerly swell events (two of 'em!) that are expected to provide surf for the Southern NSW coast. 

The second will arrive into Thursday, and will be bigger than today, as it will have been generated by a better phase of the (significant) Southern Ocean low as it moved out from underneath Tasmania’s swell shadow. Still, the direction will be quite steep so we’ll see a wide range in wave heights - around 3-5ft at south facing beaches, with the upper end of this size range at reliable swell magnets such as the Hunter. I can't rule out the potential for much bigger waves at offshore bombies either; the low responsible for this swell was quite incredible and we've seen very large surf throughout SA, Vic and Tas so far. 

Wave heights will ease steadily into Friday. And, expect much smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure. 

However, we will see a small increase in E/NE swell on Friday, from a broad ridge developing across the central/northern Tasman Sea today. Although narrow and not especially strong, it's expected to stretch from the Gold Coast through to the northern tip of New Zealand, and as a result we’ll see some 2ft+ sets fill in on Friday as the southerly swell eases back considerably. 

Surface conditions look nice and clean for much of Thursday with a weak pressure pattern and thus light winds. We’ll see similar conditions into Friday morning but an approaching front will strengthen NE breezes into the afternoon, so make the most of the early session.

This weekend (Mar 30 - 31)

Friday’s late strengthening NE winds will kick up some local windswell for Saturday morning, with 2-3ft sets at NE facing beaches. It won’t last long and will likely lose half (or more) of its size by the afternoon.

Morning conditions look clean under the influence of a local trough, but we’re now expecting a short-lived but intense Tasman Low to develop off the South Coast. This will freshen, then strengthen W’ly tending SW winds throughout the day. 

The models have really ramped up the strength of this system in recent days, and although the low will move quickly to the east, there’s a suggestion for 50kt core winds overnight Saturday (east from Eden) which could generate a brief but powerful south swell well north of 6ft+ range at south facing beaches on Sunday. 

However the proximity of this recently upgraded low to the mainland does give me pause on this event.. very minor changes in the position or strength of the low could result in a considerable drop (or increase!) in size. 

So, let’s be cautious for now: as a bare minimum, expect strong, possibly large S’ly swells for Sunday with gusty SW winds easing.

Next week (April 1 onwards)

Sunday’s swell will ease steadily into Monday.

A powerful polar low associated with Sunday’s development (well south of Tasmania - see chart below) will rocket through our distant south swell window over the weekend, setting up a solid long period groundswell for Monday afternoon and Tuesday (easing Wednesday) with south facing beaches likely to see set waves anywhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft. 

Prior to this, a developing tropical low south of Fiji over the coming days will reach peak intensity N/NE of New Zealand on Saturday and Sunday, generating a quality though inconsistent E/NE groundswell that’s due to provide 3-4ft sets from around late Monday or Tuesday onwards, peaking into Wednesday then easing through the latter part of the week.

As for conditions, much of next week looks prettty good with a weak pressure gradient maintaining light winds and sea breezes. 

More on this in Friday’s notes.