Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 29th August)

Best Days: Thurs: very large, though easing surf with mainly light winds. Fri PM: peaky combo of swells with a late a'noon NW change (bumpy earlier). Mon: solid south swell though winds look tricky. Late Tues (South Coast) and Wed: long period S'ly swell, though winds look tricky again.

Recap: Tuesday saw strong, easing S’ly swells with generally favourable winds through the morning. Surf size bottomed out this morning - though still managing 4ft sets at south facing beaches - ahead of a very large S/SE groundswell that’s build in size throughout the day. We’ve had quite a few reports of 8-10ft sets across various coasts from the Hunter to the Far South Coast this afternoon, and some reports of offshore bombies in the 15ft range (and I ain’t talking face height). It’s easily the biggest swell of the winter and one of the biggest swells in the last couple of years. 

Solid afternoon sets at Avoca

Bombs at the Queensie Bombie

Wide sets breaking from Phantoms through to Shark Island

Incredible swell lines pouring through Manly/South Steyne

This week (Aug 30 - 31)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

So far this swell has come in very close to forecast expectations, with regards to size and timing. 

From here on, we’re looking at an overnight peak in size and a steady easing trend through Thursday. However, the dropping size will be a little slower than normal because a modest secondary fetch is develop around the (decaying) Tasman Low - see below - and this will create some additional mid-period S’ly swell energy through Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

Thursday looks great on the surface with light variable winds and a possible weak sea breeze. Exposed south facing beaches could still be pushing 6-8ft+ at first light (with much larger waves at offshore bombies) though remaining beaches will be a lot smaller due to the swell direction. Expect size to lose two or three feet throughout the day.

Friday should still see 3-5ft surf at south facing beaches early morning (easing steadily to 2-3ft throughout the day), however we’ll see temporarily strengthening northerly winds through the morning ahead of a mid-late afternoon NW change.

Wind strength within these northerlies looks strong enough for around 3-4ft of peaky NE swell, however the short duration of the fetch will probably limit surf size to about 2ft (maybe the odd 3ft set at reliable NE swell magnets). As the fetch isn’t expected to kick into gear until the early hours of Friday morning, the NE windswell won’t really be visible until mid-late morning onwards, in fact it’ll probably reach a peak as winds veer NW through the afternoon.

Therefore, don’t be concerned by Friday morning’s freshening N’ly wind (there'll be a very low chance for early light winds), as it’s likely that the end of the day will offer a brief window of fun peaky swells out of the S/SE and NE just in time for the wind to swing offshore for the last few hours before sunset.

This weekend (Sep 1 - 2)

Friday’s swell combo will ease rapidly into Saturday and with freshening W/SW winds in conjunction with a series of vigorous fronts, we’re looking at small clean conditions at the swell magnets.

These fronts will enter our south swell window on Saturday, building southerly swells through Sunday ahead of a peak on Monday. However, Sunday is still at risk of a developing S’ly change through the morning that’ll wipe out conditions at south facing beaches (and they’ll be picking up the most size, building from 2-3ft to 4-5ft throughout the day). As such, Sunday looks like it’ll be best spent inside sheltered southern corners where the surf will be a lot smaller. 

Let's see if we can fine tune the specifics in Friday's notes. But it's not looking terribly flash right now.

Next week (Sep 3 onwards)

Sunday’s change will clear to the east early next week but a ridge of high pressure over Northern NSW may push light to moderate easterlies into our region on Monday. 

This is a shame as we’re looking at a strong S’ly groundswell, anywhere from 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches (bigger through the Hunter but smaller elsewhere). Surf size will then ease steadily from Tuesday onwards. 

An intense polar low passing well to the south off Tasmania on Sunday (just off the ice shelf - see below) will generate a small but long period S’ly swell that’s expected to reach the South Coast late Tuesday, and the Sydney/Hunter region on Wednesday. Set waves will be very inconsistent and the models aren’t picking up this swell very well - but we could see anywhere 3-5ft at south facing beaches up to 6ft+ at well aligned offshore bombies and through the Hunter. Winds will however be up from the NE as a large high develops in the Tasman Sea, so this will limit quality.

Looking further ahead and it appears that our recent run of south swell is coming to an end beyond the middle of next week, with a blocking pattern setting up camp through the Tasman Sea and an extended period of easterly trade swell pushing through the region from mid-late next week onwards. More on this in Friday’s update.