Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 27th July)

Best Days: Mon PM thru' Fri: plenty of fun south swell, generally good winds. 

Recap: Small southerly swells have provided occasional waves to south facing beaches over the last few days, around 2ft Thursday and 1-2ft today, though it’s been pretty inconsistent and those locations not open to the south have been tiny. However, we’ve seen clean conditions with light offshore winds. 

Small residual S'ly lines at Manly this afternoon.

This weekend (July 28 - 29)

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We’ve got a meagre weekend of waves ahead.

Small levels of intermittent, flukey south swell will glance the coast over the next few days though we’re not looking at much size. If anything, expect marginally smaller waves than today with even less frequency - just a foot or two at reliable south swell magnets (mainly the Hunter), tiny at southern ends, and long breaks between waves. Sunday will probably be a shade smaller than Saturday - though we're really splitting hairs on what's likely to be a very lacklustre weekend in the surf department.

Light winds are expected on Saturday but they’ll tend N’ly into the afternoon and then strengthen overnight, ahead of a gusty NW change during Sunday morning. Model guidance is suggesting a small pulse of local N’ly windswell during Sunday but I can’t see there being much in it. 

As such, you’ll be much better off doing something else that doesn’t require wave power.

Next week (July 30 onwards)

Sunday’s NW airstream will be related to an advancing low and front that’s expected to enter the lower Tasman Sea early Monday morning. We’ll see building southerly swell from two seperate fetches: a brief storm-force W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait, and a gale force S/SW fetch rounding the Tasmanian corner.

The first fetch will deliver a building south swell on Monday - that probably won't quite in the water early morning - but should build after lunch, peaking late afternoon. The second fetch will deliver a renewal in S’ly swell for Tuesday.

Although each fetch is of a different strength and position within the swell window, their different alignments will probably result in a similar size range across south facing beaches. The second, more southern fetch would ordinarily deliver a considerable amount more size, however I’m keeping my expectations tempered because the low is expected to slide quickly through the swell window, which reduces size potential. 

As such, I think we’re looking at somewhere between 3ft and 5ft surf at south facing beaches on Monday afternoon (smaller earlier, possibly tiny at dawn), with Tuesday seeing a second peak of similar sized swell. Beaches not open to the south will be much smaller - and this effect will be more pronounced on Monday, compared to Tuesday, because of the more acute southerly swell source - but the Hunter region may pick up a few bigger sets (especially Tuesday). If I had to split hairs, Tuesday's swell looks to be the bigger and better of the two but Monday afternoon is still on track for some nice waves at south friendly beaches.

Conditions will be great both days with offshore winds, out of the west Monday (possibly W/SW in a few regions early), tending W/NW into Tuesday morning as another series of fronts rear up from the west.

The main low/front in this next passage will kick up some fresh south south swell for Thursday, however a smaller front ahead of it will display a decent W’ly fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait on Tuesday, and should maintain small surf at south facing beaches on Wednesday (2-3ft, bigger in the Hunter).

Thursday’s south swell will be a little bigger thanks to a strong, better positioned fetch around the low as it tracks eastwards through the lower Tasman Sea, but it’ll be a brief spike in size. Sets of 3-4ft are likely at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter). 

Beyond this, we’ll see easing S’ly swell into Friday but a small cut-off polar low well south of the Tasman Sea on Tuesday and Wednesday will contribute a small south swell to finish the working week. 

Looking even further ahead, and the low responsible for Thursday’s south swell may linger in the Lower Tasman Sea for a few days, potentially offering a SE swell for next weekend. Let’s see how the models are stacking up on Monday, eh?

Have a great weekend!