South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 14th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong E'ly swell Sat with pockets of good winds across most coasts (early in the north, later in the south)
• Easing E'ly swell Sat with a S'ly change enveloping the coast
• Large sideband S/SE swell and solid E swell building Mon, peaking by Tues AM, easing thereafter
• Moderate/fresh S'ly quadrant winds Mon, easing Tues/Wed (early SW in most spots)
• More S'ly swell for Northern NSW next weekend
• More E'ly swell the following week

Recap

There’s been plenty of surf over the last few days, with 3-4ft+ E’ly swells on Thursday building to 4-5ft today. Winds have been mixed, with a complex trough driving NE gales across Northern NSW in the early hours of Thursday morning, but S/SE winds pushing up north from the border early/mid morning. Elsewhere, easterlies prevailed. Lighter winds today have allowed for improved conditions.

This weekend (Feb 15-16)

Northerly winds will create some issues on Saturday though in general most coasts will have surfable options at some point.

A southerly change will nose into the Mid North Coast mid-morning, ahead of it we’ll see freshening N’ly breezes though we probably won’t see much strength north from about Yamba in the morning. 

The afternoon will likely see freshening N/NE winds across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld (a little less strength on the Sunny Coast), but conversely, we’ll probably see variable conditions settle in across the Mid North Coast after lunch as the change dissolves. 

So, aim for an early surf in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, or a lunchtime thru' afternoon session south from Coffs.

As for surf, our currently E’ly swell should maintain strong 4-5ft sets across most open beaches, potentially some bigger 6ft bombs at the regional swell magnets (mainly in Northern NSW). Bear in mind these freshening northerlies won’t be beneficial for the regional points so you’ll have to coordinate sessions around the wind.

Easing E’ly swells on Sunday should still manage some 3-5ft sets early on (smaller as the day progresses), but freshening S’ly winds will be the dominant wild card to work around as another change pushes up the coast - again, shallow in structure but enough strength to blow out the open beaches. 

It’s due into Coffs early morning, and should be close to the border by mid-late morning, reaching the Sunny Coast mid afternoon albeit weakening by this time.

We’ll see some building southerly windswell in its wake, and some associated southerly groundswell across the Mid North Coast late in the day (though Monday is a better chance for this).

Either way, the open beaches up north should offer good beachies early morning, with the regional semi-exposed points favouring the post-southerly afternoon session. 

Next week (Feb 17 onwards)

We’ve got stacks of swell for next week too.

The front associated with Sunday's change is expected to form a deep Tasman Low on Monday, mid-way between Australia and New Zealand. It’ll remain slow moving, a factor that when combined with gale force winds slingshotting around its western flank (see below), should offset its poor alignment within our swell window. 

The fetch will be mainly aimed towards New Caledonia and Fiji, but we should see a reasonable spread of S/SE groundswell back into the East Coast of Australia. 

Although SE Qld doesn’t usually fare well (in the size department) from th this swell direction, we also have a strong renewal of easterly swell on the way, from current activity along the monsoon trough south of Fiji. 

As such, I’m expecting a mix of building swells from both directions on Monday that will peak into the afternoon in the 5-6ft range across most exposed coasts (slightly smaller along the regional points in SE Qld). 

Exposed south swell magnets south of the border may pick up some bigger bombs into Tuesday morning from the longer period south swell (plus the combined effects of dual swell trains) though both energies will gradually ease into the afternoon and further into Wednesday.

As for conditions, we’re looking at fresh southerly quadrant winds on Monday, easing slowly through Tuesday and Wednesday. Each morning should see a slight SW bias to the wind direction. This means we’ll see an extended run of quality options across the points. 

Looking further ahead and the end of the week will see small, more subdued surf conditions ahead of a modest southerly swell across Northern NSW next weekend, and another extended run of E’ly groundswell during the first half of next week as the monsoon trough re-establishes itself across the Coral Sea and South West Pacific. This is expected to generate another long-lived pulse of quality summer swell for the majority of the East Coast.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!