Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 24th December)

This week through next (Dec 25 - Jan 3)

The weekend’s solid swell has eased into the start of the week, but this afternoon and tomorrow morning we should see our inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell filling in across exposed breaks.

While generated in our far swell window it performed well in Western Australia on Sunday and we should see moderate + sized sets across the magnets before easing tomorrow afternoon.

Thursday looks a bit smaller again but come later afternoon, another new, long-range SW groundswell is due.

This and some reinforcing S/SW swell energy for Friday were generated by a great, slow moving frontal progression from the south of South Africa, east towards Western Australia while weakening since late last week.

The swell from this system looks as if it’s being under forecast by the models with inconsistent but large sets due across the magnets before easing slowly from Saturday.

The next pulse of meaningful swell looks to be mid-late next week and only moderate + in size owing to persistent but weak and disjointed storms moving through the Southern Ocean. We’ll look at this again on Thursday.

Looking at the local winds and our monsoonal surge has eased off a little but we’ll still see persistent W/NW-W/SW winds over the coming period, easing and tending more variable through the mornings on the weekend and into next week.

Over in the Mentawais, the SW groundswell should be peaking this morning with it dropping tomorrow ahead of the new, larger SW groundswell Thursday.

Following this the surf looks smaller into next week and wind wise we should see the strong NW winds currently blowing across the region easing over the coming days, more variable late week before possibly strengthening again next Tuesday/Wednesday.

These winds will also add some funky W’ly swell to the mix that will very slowly abate through the week, weekend but persist next week.

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Maldives: A mix of strong S’ly groundswell and slowly easing SE trade-swell should be breaking across the region, with a peak due through the day before easing slowly tomorrow.

There’ll be plenty of size about the southern atolls with a slow easing trend due into the end of the week as small levels of SE trade-swell become the dominant energy in the water.

A healthy, persistent fetch of SE winds looks to maintain 3ft waves across exposed spots this week, while a small low pressure centre forming inside the trade-flow looks to generate stronger 4ft sets into the weekend, easing slowly next week.

Southerly swell sources won’t totally dry up but the energy out of that direction looks smaller and slower.

Winds have eased across the region, coming light from the NW and we'll see them freshen out of the N/NW on Thursday, holding from the N’th but with less strength on Friday/Saturday, more variable from Sunday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for this afternoon/evening to 4-6ft, easing slowly tomorrow from a similar size.

Mod-large mix of SW groundswells building Thursday, peaking Friday to 6ft+ across exposed breaks, easing into the weekend. 

Moderate + sized pulses of swell for mid-late next week.

Mod-fresh W/NW-W/SW winds, becoming variable from the weekend.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell today to 5-6ft, easing tomorrow.

Moderate sized W swell for today, easing slowly over the coming days but persisting next week.

Mod-large SW groundswell for Thursday to 6ft+, easing Friday.

Strong NW winds, abating slowly and tending more variable late week. Winds possibly freshening again next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate sized S’ly groundswell to 4ft+ across the southern atolls, easing slowly tomorrow from a similar size.

Background SE trade-swell to 3ft building into the weekend to 4ft and easing slowly through next week.

Light NW winds, freshening out of the N/NW Thursday, lighter N Friday/Saturday and variable from Sunday.