South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 18th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swells continue into the weekend, tiny in SEQLD with N’ly winds
• Small fun pulse of S swell Sat  with light winds
• Easing S swells Mon with light winds
• Small S pulse later Mon into Tues with light winds
• Stronger S pulse possible later next week as front pushes into the Tasman

Recap

NENSW saw moderate S swells yesterday with 4ft sets at S exposed breaks under light winds, with smaller 2ft surf in SEQLD. Still some solid sets to 4ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW today, 2ft in SEQLD with light offshore breezes which tended N’ly by mid-morning and blew out most breaks apart from a few select backbeaches.

Strong energy from the S this morning across NENSW

This week (Sep 18-20)

High pressure is now up over NSW and sliding into the Tasman, with zonal fronts below the continent bringing mostly offshore W’ly winds to temperate NSW, more N’ly up in the sub-tropics. Frontal activity is going to generate some small S pulses in the short term with some fun waves on tap at S facing beaches. Next week we should see a stronger system move NE into the Tasman potentially generating some sizier S swell. Quite a decent outlook for September.

In the short run today S swell eases back into tomorrow with  NW’ly winds tending N’ly through the day with a late shift to the W/NW as the front pushes across NSW and Bass Strait. Small S swells on offer- mostly inconsistent  long period swell trains offering up the occ 2-3ft set at NENSW S facing beaches, likely becoming less consistent in the a’noon. Expect a few inconsistent 2ft sets at the best SEQLD S swell magnets, tiny elsewhere.

Not much on offer Fri. Low energy S swells offer an occ. 2ft set at NENSW S swell magnets, tiny elsewhere. Early W winds look to swirl around a weak troughy area so expect a variable flow through the morning (mostly offshore) before an E/NE-NE breeze in the a’noon. A new S swell pulse may just tip the MNC on dark so keep an eye out for some late 2-3ft sets there. Otherwise, Sat is a better bet.

This weekend (Sep21-22)

Mostly offshore winds look to continue over the weekend as frontal activity continues to push across the region and a weak trough hovers off the North Coast. Mostly light W’ly oriented winds for Sat with a’noon SE-E breezes. We’ll see a nice pulse of S swell for Sat, with S facing beaches in NENSW up in the 3ft range with the occ. 4ft set and smaller 2ft surf at SEQLD S facing beaches.

Tricky winds for Sun depending on how a trough off the North Coast evolves. Tiny elsewhere. Under current modelling we’ll expect morning W-SW winds with light SE-E breezes in the a’noon. Easing S swells on offer with some 2 occ. 3ft sets across NENSW S facing beaches, dropping right back in the day and tiny surf in SEQLD.

Next week (Sep23 onwards)

Sunday’s front brings another small flush of S swell later Mon. At this stage lifting surf heights back to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW (tiny in SEQLD). Winds looks good with morning offshore W breezes tending E-NE in the a’noon as a high cell moves offshore.

The Tasman Sea now looks more active next week. We should see high pressure move NE with a freshening N-NE flow Tues/Wed as a front/low approach. Models are still struggling to resolve troughiness in the Tasman, but we may see some NE windswell develop later Tues into Wed if EC model comes to fruition.

We’ll keep an eye out on the remnants of the Tasman Sea trough for signs of redevelopment near the North Island next week- latest model runs have the system quickly tracking SE away from our swell window but there is a possibility of E angled swell if we see signs of stalling or more explosive development.

Otherwise as the front pushes more aggressively into the Tasman Wed into Thurs (see below) we’re on track for a SW-S change Thurs and some sizier S swell to develop later Thurs into Fri, provisionally in the 4-5ft range with S’ly winds, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches.

We’ll see how that looks Fri due to model divergence.

In the mean-time workable S pulses continue with offshore winds- hope your coastline is getting some.

Seeya Fri.