MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal
March 15th - 25th

Exactly one month after the Abu Dhabi wavepool event, the Championship Tour is kicking off stop number three, the MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal.

After nailing the forecast for the previous stop, this one will prove a bit trickier. Supertubos faces away from its primary swell source, while the west European coastline is a volatile region with ever-changing wind and swell. Both those factors are going to make this contest grindy - to use a favourite post-heat expression.

Unfortunately, there are no slam dunk swells in the waiting period and the wind is forecast to change more times than Trump's view on tariffs. At this point, we haven’t indicated which days might be comp days but we’ll sharpen up the intel as the date approaches.

Supertubos from the marketing brochure (WSL/Scholtz)

In the days leading up to the waiting period a large storm will track across the North Atlantic, focussing towards the North African coastline and its offshore islands with surf between 6 to 10 feet.

Further north in Europe the swell will be smaller. On the first day of the waiting period, Supertubos will be 3-4 feet, however northwest winds associated with the same storm are expected to clip the west European coastline bringing surface texture to the Supertubos lineup.

That said, it’s gonna be a close run thing: If the storm can stay just enough offshore the wind will be light enough to kick things off on day one. Considering how lean the forecast period is the WSL will be looking closely at their options. If the day does get cancelled, expect a few delays before they flag it.

Sunday, day two, will see 3 feet surf, dropping all day, with onshore southwest winds. Not much chance of running.

Around the same time the first swell strikes Morocco, another system, tracking very south in latitude, will form in the mid-Atlantic. It’s not overly strong, winds only get up to 40 knots, and they’re a long way from the Portuguese coast, however they'll provide Supertubos with a small background swell over Monday and Tuesday, days three and four, notable in the absence of anything else.

A mid-Atlantic low will provide two days of small west-southwest swell.

Both days will hover around 2 feet, perhaps a touch more size fluctuating with the tides, with light north winds on Monday and light south winds early on Tuesday, building in strength throughout the day.

By Wednesday, which is day five, the already marginal west-southwest swell will dry up completely and we'll do a dizzying about-face to the north-west. 

Swell from a low that forms off Greenland will make landfall on Wednesday. Again, it's a distant source and not overly strong so surf on the Supertubos side of the peninsula won't get north of four feet. Inconveniently, a ridge will create localised north-west wind on the Portuguese coast, possibly very strong. The swell may be big enough to get into the corner at Molhe Leste.

A similar situation will play out on Thursday, which is day six, with dropping north-west swell and easing northerly wind.

Six days in, no two days alike, so nothing is a steal. The second half of the waiting period continues in a similar vein devoid of large swell or settled weather pattern.

We'll return later in the week with a full forecast, while also updating this forecast in the comments.

//STU NETTLE

PS: No, I'm not suddenly a forecaster but Craig's away, Ben's busy, and Steve protested as he already has to stay up late watching "brown-water babyfood closeouts", which is fair enough. I'll try and get one of them onto the next forecast which will have a little more detail.