Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 12th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Morning land breezes Thurs as pressure gradients ease
• Small, weak blend of S and E/NE swells Thurs 
• Slight kick in NE windswell possible Thurs PM as trough approaches
• Shallow trough brings S’ly change Fri with small swells continuing
• Not much this weekend with small swells from the S/SE and E and light winds Sat
• Increasing NE winds Sun with some NE windswell possible PM
• Action from the S next week with a trough/front Mon bringing a S’ly change and spike in S swell
• S swell peaking Tues with S’ly winds
• Easing into Wed with good winds
• Longer period S groundswell next week- filling in Thurs with light winds, holding into Fri with tricky winds

Recap

Not much to recap so far this week with small, weak swells to 2ft yesterday under light winds, which tended N-NE through the day. Today is even more miserly with sets barely reaching 2ft and light winds expected to tend to variable/seabreezes through the day. 

Small, weak swell struggling to break as high tide pushes in this morning

This week (Mar 12-14)

A new high has moved into the Tasman, quite strong at present (1031hPa) but it weakens rapidly as it moves NE through the Tasman for the rest of this week. It looks more like a weak spring pattern after the endless trades of the last month. As a result we’ve got a few days of light winds and weak surf to get through, all the way up and down the Eastern Seaboard. N’ly winds will increase over the weekend as a more significant trough and frontal system pushes into the Tasman next week, generating swells from the southern quadrant.

In the short run and nothing much to look out for over the rest of the working week. Yesterday’s weak front adds minor S swell into the mix, along with weak, residual E’ly swells but we’ll be lucky to see anything over 2ft through tomorrow, with light morning winds tending to a’noon N/NE seabreezes.

Similar for Fri, models do show a little perk up in S/SE swell as the front butted up against the South Island but the fetch is poorly aligned and typically those fetches struggle to produce much- again, pencil in weak, inconsistent 2ft surf at best with the best S swell magnets potentially offering slightly more energy. A weak, troughy area may push SW winds up to the southern limit of Sydney Fri morning, likely to stall south of the Harbour with winds ending up variable to light NE in the a’noon.

This weekend (Mar 15-16)

No great change to what is an ordinary outlook. Winds look OK for Sat morning with the weak, shallow trough stalling south of Sydney and driving a light offshore flow across most of the region (might be some SW-S winds early across the Illawarra) before winds wash out to light E-NE breezes. No real surf to speak of, just another small, weak blend of S/SE and E/NE swells to 1 occ. 2ft. 

N’ly winds increase Sun as pressure gradients tighten between the high in the Tasman and an approaching frontal system and associated trough. We should see light NW winds early, clocking around N-N/NE and freshening with NE windswell building through the a’noon to 2-3ft.

There’s a slight chance we may see winds shift more NW late in the day, potentially offering a window of improving conditions. We’ll revise that on Fri.

Next week (Mar 17 onwards)

Strong S’lies look to be across Sydney first light, up to the Hunter early morning Mon as the front pushes into the Tasman and a trough line moves northwards up the coast. We may see a very brief window of cleaner conditions with leftover NE windswell offering some 2-3ft surf, quickly easing and then getting wiped out by the S’ly flow. Once the S’ly establishes, a rapid spike in new short range S swell is expected through the a’noon, likely reaching 3-5ft by close of play. 

It’s quite a deep trough of low pressure through Mon and into Tues(see below), although it does race away quickly through Tues. We should see a peak in S swell Tues morning in the 6ft range at S facing beaches, bigger sets likely on the Hunter. Size will ebb away through the a’noon quite noticeably. Winds won’t be favourable for S facing beaches with a morning SW-S flow, tending S-S/SE through the day and easing. 

By Wed we should see high pressure moving over central NSW with light morning land breezes and a’noon E-NE breezes. Easing but clean S-S/SE swells to 2-3ft with bigger sets on the Hunter Wed morning. Frontal activity below the continent should supply some small longer period S swell in the mix through Wed. It’ll be there Tues as well but obscured by the more dominant local S swell event.

A stronger S groundswell pulse looks to fill in Thurs from a deep polar low passing under the Tasman Tues/Wed. It’s generated from below the continent, well to the SW of Tasmania and thus much better aimed at New Zealand targets. Long periods should see plenty of wrap into the best S swell magnets and coasts through Thurs with sets to 3-4ft and some outliers possible. Expect a patchy distribution though with some areas missing out. Winds look good, light NW early, tending to light N-NE breezes. 

S groundswell hangs in there for Fri morning with sets still to 3-4ft at S magnets. Winds look tricky to call with a trough potentially moving up the coast and bringing a S’ly change. GFS is suggesting a stall and weak troughy area with light winds. 

We’ll fine-tune on Fri. 

Seeya then.