South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Mar 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Extended hangover from Alfred likely in terms of degraded sand bars and onshore winds
• Potential for cleaner surf Thurs/Fri AM with small swells
• Small swells and light winds into and over the weekend, tending NE through Sun PM
• S’ly change likely later Mon with new S swell Tues, easing Wed- biggest in NENSW
• Strong S/SE winds Tues, easing through Wed and tending more E’ly Thurs
• Small E’ly swells into next week
• S groundswell late next week (likely Thurs PM into Fri)

Recap

Not much to recap so far this week with small, weak swells to 2-3ft yesterday under E’ly winds. Today is even more miserly with sets barely reaching 2ft and light winds tending to E-E/SE breezes through the day. 

Still looking ugly out there next to rivermouths in the wake of Alfred

This week (Mar 12-14)

A new high has moved into the Tasman, quite strong at present (1031hPa) but it weakens rapidly as it moves NE through the Tasman for the rest of this week. It looks more like a weak spring pattern after the endless trades of the last month. As a result we’ve got a few days of light winds and weak surf to get through, all the way up and down the Eastern Seaboard. A weak trade flow in the Coral Sea now only looks capable of generating minor background E’ly swells. N’ly winds will increase over the weekend as a more significant trough and frontal system pushes into the Tasman next week, generating swells from the southern quadrant.

In the short run and nothing much to look out for over the rest of the working week. Yesterday’s weak front adds minor S swell into the mix, along with weak, residual E’ly swells but we’ll be lucky to see anything over 2ft through tomorrow, with light morning winds tending E’ly breezes, a notch stronger in SEQLD

.Rinse and repeat for Fri with light morning winds tending to light E’ly breezes in the a’noon and small background E and S/SE swells offering up an occ. 2ft wave.

This weekend (Mar 15-16)

No great change to what is an ordinary outlook. Winds look OK for Sat morning as a shallow trough stalls about the Central NSW Coast and the sub-tropics sees a weakening ridge. That should see more light morning land breezes and a’noon E-NE breezes. No real surf to speak of, just another small, weak blend of S/SE and E’ly swells to 1 occ. 2ft. 

N’ly winds increase Sun as pressure gradients tighten between the high in the Tasman and an approaching frontal system and associated trough. We should see light W-NW winds early, clocking around N-N/NE and freshening, especially south of Ballina-Yamba. No swell to speak of with more small, background E swell to 1-2ft. Areas on the MNC may see some minor S swell and NE windswell through the a’noon- possibly reaching 2 occ. 3ft.

Next week (Mar 17 onwards)

Strong S’lies will be working their north Mon as a front pushes into the Tasman and a trough line moves northwards up the coast. We may should see that change in across Coffs just after lunch-time, reaching the border on dark. Small NE windswells and E’ly swells ahead of the change in the 1-2ft range.

It’s quite a deep trough of low pressure through Mon and into Tues, although it does race away quickly through Tues. We should see a steep increase in S swell across NENSW through Tues from early/mid morning, reaching 4-5ft at S facing beaches, smaller at regional points and sheltered bays. That increase should nose across the border at reduced levels  providing S magnets some 3-4ft waves, remaining tiny across all the Points. Winds will be fresh S tending S/SE on Tues. 

By Wed we should see high pressure moving over central NSW with light morning land breezes and a’noon breezes across the MNC, tending to lighter SE winds across the North Coast and stronger SE winds in SEQLD where the ridge will be strongest.  There’ll be a mix of S to SE swells in the water to 3-4ft in NENSW, grading a notch smaller and tending more to short range SE swell in SEQLD.  Frontal activity below the continent should supply some small longer period S swell in the mix through Wed. It’ll be there Tues as well but obscured by the more dominant local S swell event.

By Thurs we’ll see small leftovers from the S/SE-SE to 2ft, possibly 3ft across better swell magnets in NENSW with light winds tending to SE-E breezes. 

A stronger S groundswell pulse looks to fill in late Thurs into Fri from a deep polar low passing under the Tasman Tues/Wed (see below). It’s generated from below the continent, well to the SW of Tasmania and thus much better aimed at New Zealand targets. Long periods should see plenty of wrap into the best S swell magnets in NENSW  with sets to 3ft. Expect a patchy distribution though with some areas missing out.  Winds look tricky to call with a trough potentially moving up the coast and potentially seeing winds tend NE, although if it stays south winds could remain SE-E. We’ll fine-tune on Fri. 

Seeya then.