Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 6th March)

This week through next ( Mar 7 -14)

The background S/SW swell into Tuesday provided fun waves before easing yesterday and further into this morning.

We then look at the expected S/SW swell due overnight tonight, with a peak through tomorrow across eastern Indonesia, more so into the afternoon to the west.

This swell, which was generated by a healthy but not overly strong frontal progression projecting towards Western Australia over the weekend and Monday came in well across that state yesterday and should push to 6ft+ across exposed breaks in Bali through tomorrow.

This will then ease slowly through the weekend and further Monday.

The larger, stronger but less consistent S/SW groundswell for early-mid next week is still on track, with the strong polar low linked to it generating a great fetch of severe-gale W’ly winds while moving east across the Heard Island region.

The low will weaken a touch while projecting more east-northeast today, with the swell due to arrive through Tuesday afternoon, peaking later but holding into Wednesday morning.

The size will ease slowly through the end of the week, with a possible, new moderate sized SW groundswell due next weekend. The models align regarding the polar low linked to it but we’ll confirm things next update.

In the Mentawais, the fetch of weak but stationary W’ly winds west of the islands through this week have generated a small to moderate sized W’ly swell that’s on the build today and will ease slowly through tomorrow and the weekend.

Winds should ease and tend variable from tomorrow, with freshening S/SE-SE winds across northern and central locations Saturday, shifting more to the north Sunday, weakening next week.

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Maldives:

There’s been no changes to the good increase in S’ly groundswell due through tomorrow, peaking later and then easing into Saturday.

The secondary pulse of S’ly groundswell for later Monday and Tuesday morning is also on track, generated by the strong polar low currently around the Heard Island region.

For the central and northern regions, the SE trade-swell due to slowly increase through the weekend but show its head more into next week is on track as well.

Currently a healthy fetch of E/SE-SE trades are being established through the Indian Ocean, with a tropical depression likely to deepen in the flow through the weekend. This will create stronger levels of S/SE swell through next week, arriving from Wednesday and persisting through the end of the week.

The possible formation of a tropical cyclone would generate some stronger S’ly groundswell Friday but we’ll review this next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate + sized, mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow, reaching 6ft+ across exposed breaks during the day.

Easing surf on the weekend.

Moderate-large, inconsistent S/SW groundswell building Tuesday, reaching 8ft late, easing from a similar size Wednesday morning.

Light, local offshore winds ahead of weak if not variable sea breezes

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Building W’ly swell this afternoon, reaching 4ft at its peak tomorrow, easing slowly on the weekend.

Moderate sized, mid-period S’ly swell for Friday to 4-5ft+ across exposed breaks into the afternoon, easing Saturday.

Moderate-large, inconsistent S/SW groundswell for later Tuesday and more so Wednesday morning to 6ft+ across exposed breaks.

Variable winds tomorrow, freshening from the S/SE-SE across central and northern locations Saturday, migrating more to the north Sunday. Lingering S/SE-SE winds early next week, tending variable thereafter.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Small to moderate sized S’ly swell building to 3-4ft on the southern atolls tomorrow afternoon, easing Saturday.

Inconsistent S’ly groundswell for later Monday but more so Tuesday morning to 3-4ft+ on the southern atolls.

Slowly building S/SE-SE trade-swell from the weekend, reaching 4ft+ early next week,

Stronger swell from the S/SE through the middle to end of next week and to 4-5ft, possibly building further Friday.

Variable winds, tending N/NE on the weekend and freshening from Sunday through early next week. Winds easing and tending more E/NE then E/SE through Tuesday/Wednesday.