South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Mar 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small swells and light winds into and over the weekend, tending NE through Sun PM
• S’ly change likely early Mon MNC, lunchtime North Coast with new S swell spiking Mon PM
• Strong S-S/SE swell and winds Tues, easing through Wed and tending more E’ly Thurs
• Small E’ly swells into next week
• S groundswell late next week- Fri most likely, barely showing in SEQLD
• Possible developments in Coral Sea medium term suggest an active E swell window- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

More small E’ly swell and light winds through yesterday and continuing into today. Nothing over 2ft but conditions have been clean or workable all day so if you have a decent bank at your disposal (and don’t mind the dirty floodwater) there have been some fun little waves around. 

Not much at swell magnets this morning but a few fun waves if you could find a bank

This weekend (Mar 15-16)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Weak high pressure is in the Tasman with a shallow, decaying trough expected to move up the south coast today and wash out across the Central NSW Coast tomorrow with another weak high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake. In the sub-tropics a very weak ridge continues to supply land and seabreees through Sat. Small, weak swells tomorrow with a blend of S/SE and E swells hovering in the 1-2ft range for most of the day. 

Similar into Sun morning with light W-NW winds but those winds will tend NE and freshen through the day as a robust front approaches from the Southern Ocean. Small E’ly surf through the day to 2ft with some workable NE windswell on offer through the latter half of the a’noon favouring the Mid North Coast to 2 ft.

Next week (Mar 17 onwards)

SW gales push through Bass Strait and off the Far South Coast Sun night and into Mon (see below) with the bulk of the frontal winds now likely to reach Coffs around 7am, Byron by lunch and the border around school pickup. There’s a strong high behind the trough/front with a decent SE surge pushing up the coast. Expect winds to track fresh S then S/SE-SE behind the change. The trough and front now look to skip away to the east quickly during Mon but we’ll still see a significant spike in S swell from gales out of Bass Strait and the proximate fetch of gales up the South Coast. 

Early winds before the change should be NW-N with small swells to 1-2ft. Behind the change we’ll see a rapid spike in new S swell through the mid morning on the MNC, midday-early a’noon across the North Coast and showing late a’noon on the Gold Coast. Expect size to rapidly push up into the 4-5ft range across S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD.

Plenty of size across the region on Tues with surf to 4-6ft across NENSW at S facing beaches, a little smaller onto regional Points, and 3-4ft into SEQLD where short range S/SE-SE swells from the wind surge will add size. Much smaller waves into more protected Points. Fresh S/SE winds on Tues should tend SE and moderate a notch through the a’noon.

Size will ease back Wed with surf to 4-5ft across exposed breaks in NENSW, easing and smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD easing. Lighter S/SE-SE winds may tend SW in NENSW early but on the whole they will be easing through the day. 

Small leftovers Thurs mixed with some minor E swell offer clean 2ft surf. 

A long period S’ly groundswell is still due Fri. Latest model runs have weakened the fetch, confining it to a smaller area but it’s still operating on a very active sea state so it’s possible we could still see some long lines in NENSW. Under current modelling we’re on track for 3ft sets at S facing beaches Fri. We’ll see how it looks on Mon. In SEQLD it’s likely to barely show with just small E’ly swells from a modest tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea. Nothing more than 2ft at this stage. 

Further ahead and there’s more signs of life later next week with GFS suggesting an enhanced trade flow with an E’ly dip or elongated low in the Coral Sea. More frontal activity below the continent suggests S swells medium term although there’s nothing suggesting large swells at present.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon, until then, have a great weekend!