Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another trough Tues brings a flush in short range S-S/SE swell later Tues, peaking Wed
• Small SE-E/SE swell persists into Thurs with better winds (SW early) a possibility
• Easing swells from Fri with E-E/NE winds
• Not much for the weekend with small swells and light/mod N-NE winds
• Next week now looking small and weak with small NE swells likely
• Still looking to the long range for our first significant swell of the year- stay tuned!

Recap

Not much to recap for the weekend. Sat saw a small blend of S-SE swells to 1-2ft with light winds tending N/NE in the a’noon. Similar winds Sun but with extra strength which managed to whip up some small workable NE windswell to 2ft. Traces of S swell showed on the buoy arrays with some minor surf reported at S magnets. Minor surf is where we are at this morning- light N’ly winds, expected to freshen during the day with some small, dribbly NE windswell to 1-2ft. A S’ly change looks likely just after dark.

Small, weak NE windswells on offer this morning

This week (Jan 6-10)

The current synoptic situation has a Groundhog Day feel to it, with another very weak high pressure cell in the Tasman (1019hPa), directing a mod N’ly flow along the temperate NSW coastline, with a weak Tradewind flow in the Coral Sea. A front and trough bring a S’ly change tomorrow, generating some useful S-SE swell focussed on Central NSW, with the trough now looking to stall and wash out on the lower end of the Mid North Coast. On the other side of the trough we revert back to very weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and another dismal spell of tiny, weak waves. Our longer term outlook has fallen apart compared to Fridays notes. Read on for details. 

In the short run we’ll see S’ly winds at mod/fresh paces, tend more S/SE even SE through the a’noon. Small leftover NE swells may offer a rideable wave in sheltered corners. By the a’noon a flush of short range, low quality S swell will build to 2 occ. 3ft.

By Wed morning the fetch of S/SE-SE winds will be proximate to the Central NSW coastline, producing a S/SE short period swell to 2-3ft with bigger, messier surf at open S facing beaches. Onshore winds from the same direction will mean messy surf at most locations with a few cleaner, but smaller options at sheltered locations. 

Thursday looks a better bet. Latest modelling suggests a small circulation forming in the trough line off the lower Mid North Coast. If this eventuates a morning SW flow is likely across Sydney, tending S’ly-SE’ly through the day. Any small wobble in this feature could bring an onshore flow so stay tuned to local winds. If we get an offshore flow there should be some fun 2-3ft surf across the region.

Friday sees winds shift more E through E/NE as the trough/low washes out and weak high pressure sits in the Tasman. Easing swells but fun sized 2-3ft surf offers a few peaky waves on the beachies before the onshore gets up. 

This weekend (Jan 11-12)

Another quiet weekend ahead as the small, peaky SE-E swell fades out into and over the weekend. Light winds early Sat, tending NE through the day at mod paces. Early birds will find a weak, peaky 2ft wave with less size and more onshore wind on it as the day progresses. 

Small, weak dribble for Sun, topping out at 1-2ft at open beaches. Get in early under light NW winds before they shift N-N/NE through the day with a few tiny waves on offer at backbeaches for kids and learners. 

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

High in the Tasman to start next week with a N’ly flow and small NE windswell is on the menu. An unstable pattern is still suggested as an inland trough or low system approaches from the west, likely leading to freshening N’lies and some NE windswell, as a best case scenario.

GFS suggests that flow is disrupted by a weak, troughy area leading to tiny surf through the Tues-Thurs period with a possibly of increasing NE windswell later next week as the flow re-establishes.

EC maintains a firmer NE flow during this period, extending out into the Tasman as a broader fetch. Under this scenario we’ll see a workable period of fun sized NE-E/NE swell in the 3ft range +- a foot. 

There’s still some possibility of bigger swells once the inland trough or low enters the Tasman but models have been all over the shop through the weekend and pushed any outcomes further out into the long range horizon. Very low to negligible confidence now on outcomes regarding that possibility.

Let’s see how it looks Wed.