South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon April 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E-E/SE swell persists early this week 
• Light S-SE winds Tues
• S’ly winds freshen Wed with a S-SE surge up the coast from a trough
• Building S-SE swells later Wed into Thurs
• Inconsistent E swell sets later Thurs, persisting into Fri from low near North Island
• SE-E/SE swell holds at fun levels Fri into Sat
• Longer period S swell favouring NENSW Sat, and later Sun
• S swells into next week with possible E/SE-SE swells if trough develops in Tasman
• Still low confidence in specifics - check back Wed

Recap

A mix of S and E swells over the weekend, with E swell favouring QLD and S swell in NENSW. 3 occ. 4ft on Sat with early SW winds tending mod S-SE depending on rain squalls. Sun morning dipped a notch with clean conditions before we saw a slight bump in E swell through the a’noon. Today has eased back further into the 2 occ. 3ft range with light SW winds tending light SE-E in the a’noon. 

A mix of S and E swells across the weekend

This week (Apr 29-May3)

We’ve got another monster high S of WA (1039hPa), expected to move into the Bight and strengthen (1042hPa) with a trough and front expected to track north along the NSW coast from tonight and bring a robust SW-S change before the southwards positioned high holds a ridge along the entire NSW coast for most of the week with a S-SE flow. A trough of low pressure NE of the North Island is deepening today but moving southwards at a clip through the swell window with reduced swell potential compared to Fridays notes. A strong frontal progression will bring S’ly groundswell during the week. Later fronts in the far southern/central Tasman remain strong and although better aimed at Pacific targets we’ll still see some significant sideband S’ly energy from them.

Just a note about winds first. The monster high becomes very slow moving this week, as it inches through the Bight. Thus we can expect a constant S/SE flow through the working week, probably extending into the weekend. We’ll see a SE surge mid week as the ridge re-sets.

In the short run we’ll see light W-SW winds tending SE’ly as the trough works it’s way north. Not much swell action in the water, just a small amount of E/SE-E swell from winds in the Coral Sea to 2ft with the very occ. 3ft set.

S’ly winds freshen Wed, likely after lunch on the Gold Coast as a trough moves north, bringing a SE surge with it. Small S swells in NENSW to 2-3ft with minor E swell to 1-2ft. Depending in the timing of the surge we may see some new short SE swell build later in the a’noon. There will be some better quality longer period S swell in the mix late in the day from the parent front providing some 3ft sets in NENSW at S exposed breaks.

The SE surge will be in full swing Thurs with fresh S/SE-SE winds and moderate short range swell from the same direction in the 3-4ft range, mixed with some S swell in NENSW to 3-4ft. Expect surf to grid smaller into more protected points. We should see a few slightly better quality E swell sets from the North Island source later in the day. - in the 3 occ. 4ft range. Unfortunately that fetch is moving quite quickly to the south into the swell shadow of the North Island.

Rinse and repeat wind-wise for Friday although windspeeds should ease a notch as the SE surge relaxes.  Early SW breezes at the usual locations before mod S/SE-SE winds kick in. Morning E swell set to 3ft+ but very inconsistent and SE-E/SE swell filling in the gaps with similar size sets. Nothing incredible but some small fun surf on the Points. 

This weekend (May4-5)

It’s another weekend with a mix of E and S swells. Mid range E-E/SE swell should hold 2-3ft surf favouring SEQLD while long period S’ly groundswell will be on tap across NENSW with some 4ft surf at S facing beaches. Expect an inconsistent, flukey swell though and with more S-SE winds as the high slowly edges towards Tasmania. Early morning should see a SW breezes.

Easing swells on Sun AM with light SE winds expected. Through the a’noon we may see a super long period pulse push through offering some inconsistent 3ft sets across NENSW. Swells from this source (see below) tend to be even flukier than usual across the sub-tropics so we’ll keep any expectations pegged low. We mentioned a trough system potentially deepening in the Tasman on Fri and models have now pushed this back into the late weekend or early next week. That leads to low confidence in modelled outcomes.

Nonetheless there is a chance we may see a deepening trough off the MNC to Central Coast during Sun, with uncertain winds. We’ll refine this outlook as we go through the week. 

Next week (May 6 onwards)

Uncertainty remains high into next week with outcomes resting on the potential trough forming off the coast.

EC suggests the trough will deepen and create a complex system with a broad infeed through the Tasman Sea.

Under this scenario we’ll see moderate/sizey SE-E/SE swell developing next week, as S’ly groundswell eases from Mon.

GFS suggests the trough will dissipate early next week with moderate SE swells and winds from the same direction, gradually tending NE as the high finally moves into the Tasman.

We’ll keep track of things and report back Wed.

Seeya then.