South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Monday 2 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun, long range E'ly swell Tues, showing best Wed as winds swing offshore
• Building S'ly swell Thurs PM with light winds, holding  Fri, easing Sat, best suited to S swell magnets
• Quiet period ahead next week so get what you can from this week

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• E'ly swell Tues, showing best Wed as winds swing offshore
• Strong building S'ly swell Thurs from mid-morning with light winds, holding Fri before easing late in the day.
• Fun levels of mixed S swell keep S swell magnets active all weekend with light winds.
• Possible flukey SE swell Mon/Tues next week
• Quiet period ahead from next week so make hay this week

Recap

Fairly crap-tacular weekend across the entirety of the region with a very spring-like combination of very little swell and N'ly winds. A faint E swell signal and some N'ly windswell delivered just-rideable waves for the (very) keen, favouring open beaches both days. A shallow trough has delivered a S'ly change which has now worked it's way north of the QLD border. Small levels of E swell are keeping conditions just surfable with a tiny SE swell signal just visible but not adding much to the mix. There's not much depth behind the change and winds are expected to lay down in strength through the remainder of Monday. 

This week (Aug 2 - 6)

Not much change expected from Fridays forecast. The weekend ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes from the large low pressure gyre north of New Zealand looked healthy with areas of storm force winds embedded in a long, thin fetch of gales to severe gales. The issue was the fetch rapidly moving away through the swell window and into the swell shadow of the North Island. There’s reasonable confidence the fetch was semi-stationary for the better part of 24 hrs which leads to better odds the resultant E swell might punch at weight or slightly above. 

That would indicate some 2-3ft sets from the ENE building through Tuesday, most likely through the a’noon with the size holding into Wed- some 3ft+ sets can’t be ruled out- and tailing off through Thurs. Expect plenty of inconsistency and lulliness in the swell. Combined with a late shift in winds to the NW and WNW later Tuesday and all day freshening W to WSW winds on Wed it’ll be worth hunting down a suitable sand-bar that can handle a long lined E swell in the 10-12 second period band. Not always an easy task.

As mentioned on Friday the main feature of the synoptics this week is a series of cold fronts pushing across NSW and a complex Tasman low expected to form E of Tasmania overnight Tuesday. The evolution of this pattern has stayed stable all weekend with successive model runs pushing an initial cold front with W/SW gales out of Bass Strait overnight Tuesday into early Wed morning. That lends a slim chance of MNC S swell magnets showing signs of life late on Wed. With brisk W’ly winds on offer it’ll be well worth keeping an eye on the late session as the swell fills in. Keep in mind, it’s much more likely to be flat and show after dark. Almost certain north of Ballina and over the border.

Thursday is a much better bet for a more solid spike in S swell. A series of severe gale SW winds slingshot around the eastern flank of the low, tracking NE into the Tasman and generating several S swell pulses, with the initial spike likely to propagate up the coast through Thurs morning in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches. This swell front should reach the QLD border mid afternoon but keep expectations low with the straight S angle shaving off most of the size by the time it gets north of Cape Byron and Point Danger. 2-3ft sets are likely at Goldy S swell magnets, with a few tiny peelers on the Points. Sunshine Coast is unlikely to show anything before dark.

The lifecycle of the low (before it gets whisked away to the E) plays out slightly more slowly than Fridays Forecast notes, which is great news for surfers. That lends high confidence to solid surf in the 3-5ft range holding into Friday morning at NENSW S facing beaches, with continuing W’ly through WSW’ly winds slackening into lunch-time with a possible late, light Seabreeze not affecting surface quality too much. By Fri lunch-time an easing trend will be underway in NENSW but there should be plenty of leftover juice to round out the working week if you can get there by close of play.

QLD swell magnets should see fun sized 2-3ft surf Fri, with Sunshine Coast Northern Corners being the biggest and best of it.

This weekend (Aug 7-8).

More S swell on offer this weekend as the Southern Ocean storm track remains extremely active and a deep polar low becomes slow moving in Tasmanian longitudes. Another cold front pushes a fetch of WSW gales through Bass Strait Fri, not quite as vigorous as Tuesdays front but with an already active sea state thats expected to produce another small pulse of S swell later Sat for NENSW. Residual S swell from the previous swell is expected to hold surf in the 2-3ft range and with more W’ly winds and possibly light NE seabreezes on offer there’ll be plenty of options available.  

SEQLD swell magnets will see the best of this surf but keep expectations extremely modest as far as size goes. This swell is as due south as it gets and by the time it wraps into QLD there won’t be much left of it. Rideable 2ft at S swell magnets would be at the upper end of the forecast range.

Sunday is a much trickier beast. Wave models aren’t showing much favour for the vast fetch below Tasmania extending to well below 50S due to the fact the winds are aimed at targets at the other end of the Tasman sea pipe (primarily New Zealand and Fiji) but it’s likely we’ll see long period S swell refract from the source fetch into NSW, possibly later Sun. With a regime of light land and seabreezes expected at this stage it might be well worth clearing a window for your favourite S facing beach later Sun. The longer period may favour some Sunshine Coast swell magnets but again, keep expectations pegged low.  At any rate, there’ll be enough S swell energy in the water to produce some fun waves Sun.

Next week (Aug 9 onwards).

Fill up with what you can from the upcoming series of S swells. The slow moving polar low dissipates on the weekend, possibly producing a flukey SE swell Mon or Tues Aug 10 as the remnants of a cold front track towards New Zealand but the trend will be downwards from there with weak high pressure becoming stationary in the central/northern Tasman and effectively shutting the S swell window. That suggests a very low energy period from Tues next week, likely up until the end of the week at least. The Eastern swell window also looks very sleepy- just a weak tradewind band near New Caledonia by the end of next week which would be lucky to produce a knee high wave on open beaches. More on this in Wednesdays notes. For now, clear some windows for the end of the week/weekend.