South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor SE-E/SE swells into New Years Eve and most of next week with light winds
• We may see a slight bump in size Fri into Sat 
• Winds shifting NE on Sun, with minor NE windswell for the MNC Sun/Mon
• Small tradeswells developing from Tues next week
• Nothing concrete but still monitoring the tropical South Pacific for low pressure development 

Recap

Strong N’lies Sat offered up some NE windswell for the hardy with size topping out at 2-3ft. Lighter winds Sun saw cleaner conditions but size was less than 2ft across the region. Tiny again today with the best swell magnets seeing 1-2ft surf with S-SE winds.

That's getting very close to flat

This week (Dec 30-Jan 3)

Very weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral Seas as we count down 2024. Weak high pressure occupies most of the Tasman with a broad troughy area off the sub-tropical QLD coast directing a mod SE flow across the sub-tropics. This will be our main swell source short term. Nothing happening in the South Pacific this week with a weak front and trough Thurs in the Tasman not reaching the sub-tropics. Further ahead we’ll see a developing N’ly flow late on the weekend and early next week bring some NE windswell to the MNC. A trough next week tightens the pressure gradient along a developing high pressure ridge, with reasonable odds of some workable S/SE-SE swell later next week. We’re still looking at developments in the tropics but despite broad, tropical low pressure across the South Pacific Convergence Zone, our first major tropical depression of the summer remains elusive. There are some signals at the end of long range charts to keep tabs on. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see a low energy end to 2024 and start to 2025. SE winds feeding into the broad trough of low pressure will offer up 1-2ft surf across the region, possibly a notch bigger on the Gold Coast. 

Very weak pressure gradients to end 2024

Not much different on New Years Day 2025. We’ll see light winds early (W-SW) before winds shift light SE-E/SE in the a’noon. Again, there’ll be a small 1-2ft wave across open beaches offering a small slide. 

Just a caveat on the outlook. This fetch doesn’t have much going for it, but it does have proximity and persistence so any minor increase in windspeeds will translate quickly into increases in local surf heights, even if marginal. Best case scenario is we see a little more wind strength feeding into the broad trough of low pressure and an increase in surf size New Years Day. Worth cancelling New Years Eve celebrations for? Probably  not.

Similar winds and surf size to round out the week. Light morning breezes and winds shifting SE-E/SE in the a’noon, likely tending more E-E/NE on the MNC. A trough brings a S’ly change that looks to become absorbed into the general troughy area off SEQLD. That should see S-SE winds boost a notch into Fri. 

Expect 1-2ft surf Thurs. 

We may see a slight increase in short range SE-E/SE swell later Fri, depending on how local winds behave. Nothing too significant, but possibly creeping up over the 2ft range. 

This weekend (Jan4-5)

Not much change in the pattern over the weekend. High pressure in the Tasman holds a weak ridge up the QLD Coast with SE winds, tending more E/SE-E’ly south of the border then E-NE’ly on the MNC. Depending on how a broad area of low pressure behaves (it looks to linger as a very weak, blobby area) we’re likely to see continuing 2ft surf, possibly a notch bigger if the pressure gradient tightens. 

Similar into Sun with small E’ly swells to 1-2ft and winds shifting more E’ly in SEQLD, more NE’ly in NENSW.

Nothing amazing but surfable.

Next week (Jan 6 onwards)

Small NE windswells build into Mon across the southern half of the region as NE winds develop. We should see size in the 2ft range under a mod N-N/NE flow, lighter in SEQLD.

Trades looks to develop later in the weekend and early next week, although major models are still divergent over how strong they are. Under an optimistic scenario we should start to see small E’ly tradeswell build in later Mon into Tues in the 2 occ. 3ft range. Easing later in the week. 

A trough and front may add some small S swell into the mix Wed/Thurs. 

There is a chance some of the front will stall near the South Island and potentially be a source of S/SE swell later next week. We’ll see how that looks on Wed. 

Otherwise, small E’ly swells pad out the second half of next week. No real size or juice, but offering a grovel at open beaches. 

In the tropics we’ll be watching a weak low off the QLD coast early next week forming in the monsoon trough and a low forming in the South Pacific well to the NE of Fiji. No concrete surf potential off either of them at this stage- apart from small tradeswell for the QLD low- but we’ll flag them for now and see how they look on Wed. Weak pressure gradients in the South Pacific have been a feature of this summer so far, but at some point we’ll see something spin up. 

Let's hope it’s soon.

Seeya Wed for the latest f/cast notes.