South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 28th June)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small mix of swells Tues, nothing special
• Building E/NE trade swells from Wed onwards, best surf this week due Thurs with early light winds and punchy beachies
• Strong E/NE trade swells Fri/Sat but with likely N'ly winds spoiling conditions
• Chance winds will ease Sun as solid E/NE swells continue to pulse into Mon with a S'ly change
• Easing swells from Tues onwards

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Strong S'ly swell Tues, though with tricky winds from the southern quadrant (SW early)
• Building trade swells Wed onwards, strong by Thurs/Fri
• Better S/SE groundswell Thurs, light winds early - best waves of the week with the swell combo
• Strong E/NE trade swells Fri/Sat but with likely N'ly winds spoiling conditions
• Chance winds will ease later Sat/Sun as solid E/NE swells continue to pulse into Mon with a S'ly change
• Easing swells from Tues onwards

Recap

A small E/NE swell provided occasional 2ft sets across most regions on Saturday, before easing slowly into Sunday. At the same time, a new southerly swell pushed up across Northern NSW on Saturday, pulsing 2-3ft+ at south facing beaches (south of Byron) late afternoon and holding at this size range from Sunday thru’ today. Winds were light offshore early Saturday but swung S’ly through the afternoon, and maintained a SW thru’ S’ly direction on Sunday and today. A small E’ly swell has also been present in the water late Sunday and today though without any major size. 

This week (June 29 - July 2)

Lots of action on the charts.

But before we look to the east, we have some more inbound southerly energy.

The strongest southerly pulse in the current sequence is due to push across Northern NSW on Tuesday morning, peaking in the afternoon. South facing beaches south of Byron should see 4-5ft+ sets, though it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. 

Conditions will be under the influence of a coastal ridge, with moderate to fresh southerly winds times, though early mornings should see periods of lighter SW winds. 

I’m not expecting much size in SE Qld away from south facing beaches, and exposed northern ends, which may push 2-3ft, though they’ll be wind affected. The outer points will have smaller waves for keen surfers but it’s not worth getting too excited about.

SE Qld will also start to see building short range SE swells thanks to the local ridge, though initially quality will be low (on Tuesday) - it won’t be until Wednesday where the wavelength starts to draw out and the points start to offer a better range of options.

We’ll also see the ridge draw slightly away from the coast from Wednesday onwards, which should allow for periods of light morning SW winds - though the Sunshine Coast is the exception here and may not see such an abatement. But, anywhere south from the southern Gold Coast should see some fun waves as wave heights continue to build as the south swell eases - ballpark size range is for 3ft surf across most coasts, though the dominant swell direction south from Byron will be S’ly at first. 

The ridge will then remain stationary across the Northern Tasman Sea for the rest of the week, building E’ly thru E/NE swells from Thursday (3-4ft) into Friday (4-5ft) across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with slightly smaller surf south from about Yamba. 

Note: I’m pegging wave heights slightly below that of the models, I’m not sure why they’re overcooking things but I’m a little hesitant to expect 5-6ft surf by Friday.

However, the slight eastward shift of the Tasman High will put us at risk of strengthening N/NE winds, most likely on Friday and with the most strength across the Mid North Coast. This will limit surfable options in most regions.

As such, make the most of Thursday which should see light variable winds through the mornings (ahead of afternoon E/NE breezes) and strong building trade swells.

As a side note - but an important one - also in the water on Thursday will be a long period S/SE groundswell, generated by a secondary intensification of the same low for the current building S’ly swell - but this time well south, even S/SE of New Zealand (see below). 

As a result, the swell direction will be S/SE across Northern NSW, and the larger swell periods associated with this energy (15-16 seconds) should boost what’ll otherwise shows as relatively low Hsig values across the regional wave buoys.

South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up 3-5ft sets at the height of the energy though it’ll be very inconsistent… the E’ly swell will be more dominant. Wave heights will then ease into Friday from this source. We won't see a lot of this swell in SE Qld though south swell magnets should pick up occasional 3ft+ sets, which will likely be smaller than the building trade swell.

This weekend (July 3 - 4)

Swell wise, we’ve got a cracking weekend of strong E/NE trade swell from the stationary ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea. 

The fetch will be slow moving, which will help to boost size (compared to a transient fetch of comparable strength) and its sustained nature will probably increase the consistency of set waves considerably too.

Wave heights should push 4-6ft at most open beaches, and a strengthening of this fetch over the weekend should create a slightly larger secondary kick in size for late Sunday and Monday. 

Winds are however the wild card, but there are windows of opportunity on the horizon.

A trough of low pressure is expected to develop across Southern NSW and it’s likely to encroach Northern NSW at some point on the weekend - though the models aren’t in agreement as to the timing. 

The US solution suggests Saturday (so, early NW winds across most regions, becoming variable on Sunday) whilst the European solution is delayed, maintaining gusty northerlies on Saturday, tending fresh W’ly overnight, then SW at some point on Sunday.

So, all we can do is wait for the next couple of updates to see which way it’s trending. But, swell won’t be in any short supply.

Next week (July 5 onwards)

The E/NE swell should peak Monday, current expectations are around the 5-6ft+ mark though with a developing trough off the Southern NSW coast, we will probably see the head of the fetch focused towards southern regions (see below), so bigger surf is possible across the Mid North Coast.

At the same time, a developing southerly flow adjacent the coast is expected to favour the points and sheltered southern corners. 

The next round of swell looks to be a mid-week S’ly pulse though no major size is expected. So, it’ll be windy but sizeable at most regions

Easing wave heights are then expected form Tuesday onwards with the next south swell due around Thursday. 

More details on Wednesday. See you then!