South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 21st September)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: small, slowly building E'ly swells in SE Qld, though inconsistent. Late Sat (Mid North Coast) and Sun (Far Northern NSW): building combo of S'ly groundswell and SE swell, mainly across Northern NSW (plus some E'ly swell too). Light winds early Sun the pick for all coasts. Later Wed/Thurs: solid S'ly swell in Northern NSW, smaller in SE Qld.

Recap: Thursday didn’t offer much, with a fresh southerly change contributing very little swell away from Northern NSW’s south swell magnets, which were very wind affected. Today saw a little more size and strength in the surf as short range S’ly swell build across Far Northern NSW and SE Qld; most locations were either too small (Sunshine Coast) or blown out (Northern NSW) but the southern Gold Coast points provided workable 2ft sets with clean conditions under the southerly breeze. 

Small peelers at Snapper this morning

This weekend (Sep 22 - 23)

Today’s southerly breeze will ease rapidly across most locations into Saturday morning and swing light SW, allowing for a slow improvement in surface conditions. The only exception is the northern end of the Gold Coast and much of the Sunshine Coast, where we’ll probably see lingering S’ly tending SE breezes. 

As for surf, we have a few sources on the way. The fetch generating today’s swell is easing so wave heights will abate into the morning, but a small pulse of distant E’ly swell will build all weekend, generated by the eastern flank of a broad subtropical low parked NE of New Zealand earlier in the week. It’ll be quite inconsistent, but should building from occasional 2ft sets across most coasts early Saturday up to 2-3ft+ by late Sunday - though with very long breaks between the bigger sets.

More prominent in the water - at least south of Byron Bay - is a new long period southerly swell that’s expected to reach the Mid North Coast early afternoon, nosing into the Far North Coast very late in the day but then peaking overnight or into Sunday morning. This swell was generated by an intense low in the Southern Ocean below South Australia mid-week, and the swell has already reached Tasmania and Victoria with some impressive waves reported across these coasts today.

The low responsible for the swell was poorly aligned within our acute south swell window, but it was quite far to the south, and contained within a very broad, elongated fetch of westerly gales, which will assist in pushing the swell up along the NSW coast. 

We’re likely to see a wide range in wave heights owing to the acute swell direction and the large swell periods (Pt Nepean in Victoria recorded the leading edge at 22 seconds) - so as much as I don’t like to sit on the fence and throw out broad size estimates, the truth is that we’ll see significant variations in wave heights from coast to coast, and even beach to beach.

Ballpark size range is still for a peak around 3-4ft+ at reliable south facing beaches south of Byron Bay from late Saturday into Sunday morning, though with smaller surf elsewhere due to the direction. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an embedded pulse that nudged a little higher than this for an hour or so (though, I’m expecting this mid-afternoon on the South Coast, then late afternoon across Sydney/Hunter coasts - so if it occurs, Northern NSW will probably pick it up overnight Saturday).

Across SE Qld, I don’t think we’ll see much across most beaches and outer points, perhaps some inconsistent 1-2ft sets though exposed northern ends could pick up stray 3ft+ waves if you’re lucky. 

Saturday afternoon is still a little knife-edge on the timing of the swell (I’ll comment below if anything noteworthy happens before then) so Sunday morning is looking to be your best option. Winds should be light for much of the day.

Also in the water on Sunday will be a minor SE swell from a small front pushing through the north-eastern corner of the Tasman, on the tail end of today’s ridge. This won’t provide much size, but the reinforcing energy should fill the gaps within the otherwise inconsistent southerly groundswell.

So, with three distinct swell trains in the water for Sunday - none of which are being picked up very well by the global wave models - I reckon you’ll do pretty well at most open beaches. 

Next week (Sep 24 onwards)

A fresh southerly change is expected to push up the Northern NSW coast on Monday, and this will largely wipe out conditions across most open beaches. 

We should however see a continuation of very inconsistent though long range E’ly swell, and this will provide clean intermittent waves across the outer points throughout the day, with sets in the 2-3ft range. Expect a little more size across Northern NSW as an additional southerly windswell builds in the lee of the change. 

A new southerly groundswell will then push into Northern NSW on Tuesday and hold into Wednesday, originating from another poorly aligned front south of Tasmania on Sunday (related to Monday’s southerly change). This should keep south facing beaches south of Byron holding somewhere between 3ft and maybe 3-4ft.

A small short range SE swell is likely throughout SE Qld on Tuesday as a ridge builds across the coast, though winds will remain from the same direction so conditions won’t be great (only the points will offer anything rideable). Small E’ly swell will persist through this time frame too, sourced from a broad fetch well south of Tahiti. 

Looking further ahead, and a series of long period southerly swells are then expected from late Wednesday (Mid North Coast) into Thursday, related to an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough across the Southern Tasman Sea. 

Unfortunately the models have moved things around a little since Wednesday’s Forecast Notes were prepared, but we’re still looking at a solid event building Wednesday (likely the afternoon) and peaking on Thursday morning with sets in the 5-6ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron. The large periods associated with this event should exacerbate wave heights at deep water bombies and other reliable south swell magnets, however we’ll see much smaller surf across the Gold Coast owing to the swell direction.

Looking into the much longer range outlook, and and moderate though still quality S/SE swells (related to the same LWT) will play out the end of next week, holding into the weekend, whilst there’s also some out-of-season tropical activity suggested for the tropics near Fiji that may bring about a NE or E/NE event midway through the following week. And all through this time frame we’ll see small persistent levels of distant E’ly swell from a stationary fetch south of the Tahitian region. 

Have a great weekend!