Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 2nd May)

Best Days: Late Sun: new south swell showing in the Lower Mid North (probably not reaching further north than Port Mac or Coffs). Mon/Tues: solid south swell in Northern NSW (small in SE Qld). Late Wed/Thurs: another solid south swell for Northern NSW (small in SE Qld). Fri: could be centrestage for SE Qld with a new system developing right off the coast?

Recap: Small residual leftovers. Nothing of any great interest.

This weekend (May 3-4)

Let’s split the weekend into two region - north and south of the border.

SE Qld won’t see anything but a whole lotta offshore wind both days. Next!

Northern NSW can almost cut n’ paste the SE Qld forecast for the weekend. That is, if you’re located north of Coffs Harbor.

See, we’re expecting a building south swell from an incredible low pressure system developing in the SW Tasman on Saturday, but model data has the leading edge pushing just into the Port Macquarie region by the end of the day (with 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches late afternoon). See at the bottom of this report for comparison graphs between Port Mac and Coffs. 

Now, model derived forecasts are an inexact science at the best of times. So if I were positioned somewhere between Port Mac and say, Yamba, about mid-afternoon on Sunday, I don’t think it’d be unreasonable to glance an expectant eye across the coast in hope of some early forerunners. Because winds will be offshore (out of the west) and once the swell eventually hits it should be reasonably consistent, and will only continue to build.

I’d recommend keeping an eye on the Sydney surfcams in the morning just to confirm its arrival (particularly the Newcastle surfcam, which shows south swells really well) and then the Coffs Harbour surfcam which faces due south too. If it's starting to look sizey at Newcastle by early afternoon, it could be game on.

Otherwise, Monday is your day.

As a side note, check out the 850hPa temps across the Central/Northern Tablelands on Sunday night (blue area in the image to the right) - this equates to around 1500m above sea level and temps dips below zero (happy camping!). This system will deliver an icy smack in the face for those of you who’ve been enjoying the relative warmth in boardies over the last few months - the wind chill is going to bite hard over the next week or so.

Next week (May 5-9)

This Tasman Low is shaping up to be quite a beast. However, most of SE Qld rarely benefits from southerly groundswells unless they’re massive and this one won't tip the scales. So, we can expect very small waves across much of the Gold and Sunny Coasts throughout next week as a series of south swells moves through the region (however, exposed south facing beaches will pick up some decent waves).

But across Northern NSW, Monday should see a large south swell generated by a near-stationary, continually strengthening fetch of gale to storm force S/SW winds forming between Tasmania and up to about Jervis Bay later Saturday and into Sunday. The swell will already be in the water across the Lower Mid North Coast early Monday, but the Far North Coast and exposed south swell magnets in SE Qld will start off smaller and slower ahead of a rapid increase throughout the day. 

Due to the acute southerly swell direction, we’re looking at a large range in wave heights - anywhere from 5-6ft bombs at south facing beaches (perhaps some bigger waves in the Lower Mid North), down to maybe 2-3ft sets at open beaches with tiny waves inside sheltered southern corners.

Exposed south facing beaches on the Gold and Sunshine Coast won’t pick up much as much size as its magnetic counterparts south of the border, however 3ft sets are a reasonable possibility here (very late Monday or more likely early Tuesday). And winds are looking good too, moderate to fresh W/SW across the Lower Mid North with lighter W/SW winds and sea breezes north of about Yamba. 

A slow easing trend is then expected through Tuesday, ahead of yet another strong south swell building throughout Wednesday, courtesy of another low and front tracking through the southern Tasman Sea earlier in the week. This should deliver a similar round of swell (as per Monday) across south facing beaches through the middle of the day in the south, but it'll arrive late afternoon in the north.

There’s a chance SE Qld’s exposed south swell magnets may not see this new pulse until after dinnertime Wednesday (so, with Thursday being your best chance for the most size), however I’ll revise all of these timings on Monday with the availability of updated model data.

As for winds, the font/low responsible for the mid-week swell looks like it’ll punch a little further north than previous systems, so winds are looking dicey for the lower Mid North Coast - some form of southerly - however we should see a SW outflow north from about Coffs or Yamba through the the Sunny Coast. 

Strong but slowly easing south swells are then expected from Thursday through Friday with good winds.

Longer term (May 10 onwards)

More south swell is on target for next weekend at this stage, extending from a polar front expected to track well south of Tasmania Wednesday/Thursday and then up into the New Zealand region (current model guidance points towards a smaller, longer period event with much less consistency).

Elsewhere - and more relevant to the SE Qld region - we’ve got a complex trough developing on the long range models just off the SE Qld coast later next week that could deliver some interesting possibilities for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It's way to early to start discussing options here but worth flagging for discussion on Monday. ‘Till then enjoy your weekend!