Low in the Tasman to start spring, but another downgrade likely

freeride76

Low in the Tasman to start spring, but another downgrade likely

freeride76

There’s a troughy pattern in play at present, with a long trough snaking from inland QLD down to the Central/Southern NSW Coast. Return flow off the back of a retreating high is feeding N’ly winds into the trough line. We’re expecting a front to interact with the trough overnight Thurs to form a low pressure trough in the Tasman.

NE windswell episodes mixed with small S swell pulses this week and into the weekend

freeride76

NE windswell episodes mixed with small S swell pulses this week and into the weekend

freeride76

We’ve got a reasonably strong high (1032hPa) sitting in the Tasman, with NE winds aimed at Tasmania, slowly drifting NE and weakening as it does so over the next 36-48hrs with the last of a series of powerful storms tracking across the lower Tasman. In the absence of a high pressure ridge we’ll see N to NW’lies.

Surf from the E ands S both get a boost into the weekend as large low pressure trough forms in Tasman

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Surf from the E ands S both get a boost into the weekend as large low pressure trough forms in Tasman

freeride76

The trough is expected to move offshore and merge with a more tropical derived depression to form a large trough of low pressure in the Tasman over the weekend. This has been a feature of synoptic prognostic charts for a few weeks now, with forecasts generally tending to weaken and fall apart as the event unfolds.