Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 28th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Chunky NE swell Tues with winds tending NW through the day
• Smaller but better quality NE swell Wed with NW winds before a S’ly change
• Easing but still fun S swell Mon/Tues
• Late kick in S swell Thurs 
• Plenty of short range S swell Fri
• Easing S swell Sat
• Building NE windswell Sun, persisting through Tues/Wed 

Recap

S swells were on the menu for the weekend with Sat in the 3ft range and Sunday seeing 4ft sets at S facing beaches in the a'noon. Today has seen building NE swells with N'ly winds and size in the 3ft range.

Chunky NE swell today

This week and next (Aug 28 - Sep8)

We’ve got a reasonably strong high (1032hPa) sitting in the Tasman, with NE winds aimed at Tasmania, slowly drifting NE and weakening as it does so over the next 36-48hrs with the last of a series of powerful storms tracking across the lower Tasman. In the absence of a high pressure ridge we’ll see N to NW’lies. A trough will extend along the East coast before a front through the latter half of the week brings S’ly winds by Wed. The trough is expected to move offshore and merge with a more tropical derived depression to form a large trough of low pressure in the Tasman over the weekend. This has been a feature of synoptic prognostic charts for a few weeks now, with forecasts generally tending to weaken and fall apart as the event unfolds. Lets hope this one comes to fruition to deliver some chunky S-S/SE swell. 

In the short ruin and todays NE swell holds in the 3ft range tomorrow with conditions improving as winds tend more NW through the day. There should be some fun waves about as S swell adds some 2ft surf to the mix.

Early NW winds Wed with a mixed bag of easing S swell and some better quality NE swell from a fetch off the NSW Coast. That should see clean 2ft surf before a S’ly change during the day. 

Thursday looks interesting. A trough approaches, along with a frontal system from the south. Depending on how the trough behaves we are likely to see a period of light W/NW flow before the trough advances north and moves offshore, bringing freshening SW to S’lies which are likely to generate some late, local S swell to 2-3ft. We’ll finesse timing on Wed.

Friday sees short range S swell from the proximate fetch to 2-3ft, with a dash of longer period swell mixed in and a fresh S’ly flow, easing during the day.

Into the weekend and we’re likely to see the trough of low pressure move NE with winds easing then tending NE through the day. Small surf to 1-2ft is expected Sat, mostly S swell trains.

By Sunday N’ly winds are expected to form a useful fetch off the South Coast and Bass Strait, (see below) with building NE windswell to 2-3ft likely under freshening N’lies.

This fetch looks persistent and under current modelling should supply a couple more days of workable NE windswell to 3ft Mon, bigger Tues with winds likely to tend more NW through W on Tues as a complex low pressure system approaches from below the continent.

We may see more NE windswell later next week from N-NE winds through the Tasman, likely smaller than Mon/Tues episode. 

Further ahead and we may see some S swell from the complex low as it pushes into the lower Tasman later next week.

We’ll see how that looks on Wed, seeya then!