Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 18th February)

This week through next (Feb 19 - 27)

The coming period mostly revolves around the S/SW groundswell due tomorrow and Thursday morning across the region, generated by a strong low that formed north-east of the Heard Island region late last week.

This low formed as Severe Tropical Cyclone Elvis dropped south from the Indian Ocean into the westerly storm track, generating a moderate + sized S/SW groundswell that should build strongly tomorrow afternoon, peaking overnight and easing slowly on Thursday.

The surf should continue to ease slowly into Friday, smaller Saturday morning.

Other than an inconsistent, background SW groundswell for Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, the next noticeable increase in size is possibly due later Wednesday but more so Thursday.

The low linked to this swell is due to form south-east of South Africa tomorrow, with a good but small and tight fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds due, producing a moderate sized but inconsistent SW groundswell.   

Following this there’s nothing too major on the cards but more on this Thursday. Local winds look favourable this period and light, local offshore in the mornings ahead of SW sea breezes (fresher Friday afternoon and Saturday).

In the Mentawais, the S/SW groundswell looks the best of the bunch tomorrow afternoon and Thursday morning, with smaller levels of background swell for the weekend. The swell mid-next week looks promising, but more on this Thursday.

Winds look favourable and mostly variable, tending NW at times across southern locations.

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Maldives:

The weekend’s S/SE trade-swell has eased back into today but we should see some new, inconsistent S/SE groundswell (from the low spawning off the remnants of Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince) later today, peaking through tomorrow.

This swell will then ease into Thursday and Friday, with some new, background S/SW groundswell due to take its place across the southern atolls from later Thursday into Friday.

Smaller surf is due into early next week, but the low forming from the remnants of Severe Tropical Cyclone Elvis being absorbed into the westerly storm track, should produce a good pulse of S/SE groundswell that’s due mid-week, easing into Thursday/Friday. A secondary similar pulse is then also due on the weekend, peaking Sunday.

Otherwise the healthy frontal progression below South Africa is still on track and should generate some fun sized groundswell for later Thursday afternoon and Friday morning on the southern atolls.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate + S/SW groundswell building tomorrow afternoon to 5-6ft across exposed breaks, easing from a similar size Thursday morning.

Small-moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 3-5ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for later Wednesday, peaking Thursday to 5ft+, easing Friday.

Light, local offshore winds in the mornings ahead of SW sea breezes (fresher Friday afternoon and Saturday).

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for tomorrow afternoon and Thursday to 4-5ft+ across exposed breaks.

Small-moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4-5ft across exposed breaks.

Moderate + sized SW groundswell for next Wednesday afternoon and Thursday to 4-6ft across exposed breaks.

Variable winds, possibly tending NW at times across southern locations.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate sized, inconsistent S/SE groundswell tomorrow to 4-5ft across exposed breaks, easing Thursday.

Small to moderate sized, inconsistent S/SW groundswell for Thursday afternoon and Friday to 4ft+ on the southern atolls.

Secondary similar sized pulse of inconsistent S/SW groundswell Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning on the southern atolls.

Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for next Tuesday to 4-6ft on the southern atolls.

Moderate E/NE-NE winds across northern and central locations, easing slightly through the weekend and next week. More variable N winds to the south.