Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th Dec)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE swell bump Sat with a S’ly change
• Small S swell Sun with SE winds
• Small NE-E/NE swell Mon
• S groundswell wrap Tues, easing Wed with light winds
• Potential trough late next week may see SE-E/SE swell, check back Fri for updates

Recap

NE windswell came in a bit hot yesterday with size to 2-3ft and a late afternoon glass off providing clean conditions. Back to tiny/flat today with winds now tending N/NE after a SW change. 

This week and next week (Dec6- Dec 15)

We’ve still got weak high pressure in the Tasman with a trough quickly dissipating in the Tasman Sea and a lingering trough off the NE Coast with a variable wind flow returning for the rest of the week. TC Jasper has formed in water surrounding the Solomon Islands and is intensifying under favourable conditions. Most models now are suggesting a SW-W curvature as it enters the Coral Sea, with almost no surf potential now for Tasmania. The troughy pattern we’ve seen since early November continues, with surf potential continuing to favor small swells from infeeds into the trough. Read on for details.

Not much surf in the short run with a couple of tiny days ahead to finish the working week.

Into the weekend and we should see a small increase in NE swell Sat from a fetch off the NSW Coast and Bass Strait but a S’ly change will restrict spots.

Source of NE swell Sat

The change brings some small S swell to 2ft Sun in the morning with new E/NE swell overlapping it in the a’noon as it builds to 2-3ft under variable tending NE winds.

Next week looks a little bit more active for Tas. 

Small NE-E/NE swells Mon see workable surf in the 2ft range under a light onshore flow.

A passing front with gales to severe gales supplies S groundswell wrap on Tues with size expected in the 3-5ft range under continuing light onshore winds. Size then eases into Wed.

By Thurs we may see a new trough off Tas or the Gippsland coast which has potential for developing SE-E/SE swell late next week depending on how it is positioned.

Low confidence at this stage but lets see how it looks Fri.

Seeya then.