Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep22)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, long period S swell Thurs, easing back but still rideable Fri and Sat AM
• Stronger S swell Sat PM, holds into Sun
• More S swell Mon next week
• NE windswell builds Tues next week, peaks Wed, surfable leftovers Thurs

Recap

S swell from an intense cold front which pushed north  into the Tasman Monday saw S swell in the 3-4ft range yesterday with a light/mod NW wind in the wake of the front. Surf size has dropped right back into the 1-2ft range today with a fresh NW wind swinging more W to SW.

This week and weekend (Sep20-Sep 26)

Not much change to Mondays f/cast notes expected. 

Intense frontal activity below the continent, with a complex, slow moving polar low and huge seas are generating long period S’ly swell trains which provide small surf by the time they wrap into the sheltered North-east coast of Tasmania. Both Thursday and Fri see long period swell trains in the 2ft range wrapping into the coast with fresh NW to W winds expected. If you can get out of the strong offshore winds there’ll be some rideable surf on offer.

A stronger, better aligned fetch of SW winds accompanying the passage of a deep low through the lower Tasman later Friday sees a a bigger S swell pulse build into the 3ft range during Sat a’noon with continuing synoptic W’ly winds. 

Stronger S swell from this source continues through Sun with plenty of 4-5ft surf on offer under prevailing W’ly winds. Expect surf to ease back a notch during the a’noon.

The pattern of fronts is expected to ease next week as a dominant high pressure system tracks into the Tasman Sea.

Leftover S swell trains should see some rideable 2ft surf Mon with NW winds expected.

Pressure gradients tighten on Tuesday as a cut-off mid-latitude low in the Bight approaches, with N’ly winds starting to freshen along the NSW South Coast and adjacent waters. This N’ly fetch is expected to be a useful swell source for NETas with size building through Tuesday into the 2ft range.

Models then show windspeeds increasing in the fetch into Wed, with surf size building into the 3ft+ range during the day with accompanying N to NW winds likely along the North East coast. 

Surf holds into Thursday before easing as the fetch slowly moves eastwards out of the swell window. 

Longer term and with suppressed activity from the South and the high pressure moved out of the swell window, surf is likely to return to tiny levels into the end of next week and the weekend.

More in Friday’s notes.