Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep17)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat AM, dropping rapidly Sun
• S swell building late Mon, holding Tues before easing PM
• More S swell ahead for next Sat/Sun, stay tuned for details

Recap

Tiny surf over the last two days in NETas with a slight increase in NE windswell now building this a’noon as N’ly winds freshen across Bass Strait.

This  weekend and next week (Sep18-Sep 24)

Small NE windswell peaks tomorrow in the 2ft range with fresh N’ly winds in the morning tending more NW and cleaning up conditions as the swell rapidly eases back during the day.

Sunday is likely back to tiny/flat with strong to gale force NW winds expected. 

Moving into next week and a series of strong fronts and lows are mostly too W’ly oriented to wrap around into the north-east corner. A better angled fetch associated with a frontal fetch moving NE into the Tasman later Mon into Tuesday sees surf build into the 3ft range at S exposed spots with early SW winds from the front turning WNW as it passes by.

A deep Tasman low is expected to form off the Central NSW coast during Tuesday, but at this stage the storm force to severe gales on the southern flank of the low are located too far north to be in the NETas swell window. We’ll update that Mon on the off chance the low forms a bit further south than forecast. 

A more zonal fetch passing under the state Thursday should see small levels of refracted S swell push up into the 2ft range, with fresh NW winds tending WSW as the front passes over the state. 

Into next weekend and a deep low passing under the state is expected to generate a more substantial S swell for Saturday, with WSW to SW winds likely and surf building into the 3-4ft range. 

This size is likely to hold, possibly boost a notch into the 4ft range during Sunday as the fetch moves NE past Tasmania, although models do show it weakening as it moves into position. 

Check back on Mon for a fresh analysis and have a great weekend.