So, the swell charts may look active - but with perhaps three or four surfable options between the Byron and Sunshine Coasts, there’s not a great deal to look forward to for most weekend warriors. More in the Forecaster Notes.
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The model guidance shifted things around considerably over the weekend. However, this is actually a bonus for our region as the low’s likely new position will be very well positioned for Northern NSW, and thanks to its slow moving nature, will also be very beneficial for SE Qld.
Looks like a fun weekend of waves in many regions.
Jeez, it’s a tricky weekend to forecast for. The Forecaster Notes have a wide range of swell and winds to discuss.
It seems as if there’s a thousand inbound swell sources throughout the forecast period, and that my head may explode. But, let’s get on and into it.
Looking further afield, and we’ve got some interesting developments elsewhere, with deepening tropical activity south of Fiji broadening a surface trough through the north-eastern Tasman Sea through the first half of the week, forming an impressive E/NE fetch that’ll probably stretch way out into the South Pacific.
We’ve got a complex outlook ahead, with tropical cyclones, long period southerly swells, sub-tropical lows and local troughs contributing swells of varying strength and sizes. Bring it on, eh?
We’ve got a multitude of small swell source inbound (long range E’ly, short range S/SE) but the most dominant swell trains over the coming days will be a series of overlapping southerly swells generated by strong, though poorly aligned frontal activity through the Southern Tasman Sea.
So, with three distinct swell trains in the water - none of which are being picked up very well by the global wave models - I reckon you’ll do pretty well at most open beaches.
Over the weekend, we’ll see a slow, steady undercurrent of long range E’ly swell generated by a broad subtropical low NE of New Zealand.