Looks like a reasonably fun weekend of waves across the coast, though it’ll be a little undersized early Saturday morning.
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We have a better swell source on the way. A broad trough of low pressure between New Zealand and Fiji is expected to muscule up over the coming days, reaching maximum strength on Thursday though aimed mainly towards locations further north.
Over the last few days, the models have started to show some interest in a possible Tasman Low forming in the lee of the Thursday/Friday trough, and generating solid swells for the weekend.
Looking further to the north, and the deepening trough is expected to spawn a possible tropical cyclone by mid-week (between Vanuatu and Fiji).
A second, stronger gusty southerly change is moving up the South Coast, with Ulladulla now gusting 21kts (also picking up 22mm of rain, and counting).
The big question for Tuesday is: will there be any leftover south swell?
Sunday is a complex, dynamic day to look forward to.
Large surf on the way. Read about it in the Forecaster Notes!
Today’s strong southerly swell is now easing across the region. However we have a couple of smaller southerly pulses expected over the coming days.
A series of secondary fronts will move into the lower Tasman Sea behind the weekend’s event, supplying useful south swell through the first half of next week. More in the Forecaster Notes.