Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd April)

Best Days: Most days should see fun peaky waves with mainly light winds. Sun and late Tues/Wed for the most size. 

Recap: Tuesday delivered very good S’ly groundswells around 3-5ft at south facing beaches, with smaller waves elsewhere. This swell faded into this morning, but we’ve seen a building distant E/NE groundswell with 3ft sets at exposed beaches. Conditions have been clean with mainly light winds under 10kts both days. 

This week (April 4 - 5)

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We’ve got more of the same for the next few days. 

There’s a couple of sources of easterly quadrant swell: our distant E/NE source from the weekend, plus a ridge across the northern Tasman Sea. These swells should create combined size in the 2-3ft range both days, if anything down a touch on Friday though not in any noticeable way. 

The models have slightly strengthened a secondary ridge pushing through the Southern Tasman Sea over the next 24 hours, and this should generate a building S/SE tending SE then E/SE swell from Thursday afternoon through Friday. 

The associated fetch will span the width of the Tasman Sea, but I don’t like the northward track of the broader system (perpendicular to the fetch orientation, and the swell window). As such, I think we’ll probably see a similar size (2-3ft) build across the coast into Friday. The combination of all three swell trains may generate the odd bigger set but I don’t think there’ll be a lot more size.

We also may see a small spread of southerly swell push up the coast on Friday, generated by the parent low related to the developing southern ridge. This low is tracking under Tasmania right now but it’s poorly aligned and therefore I don’t think we’ll see much more than a couple of lazy feet at south swell magnets.

Local conditions look good both Thursday and Friday, with a weak pressure gradient and thus light variable winds and sea breezes. 

This weekend (April 6 - 7)

We’ve got plenty of fun waves in store this weekend, though there is a risk of NE winds both afternoons.

By Friday, the synoptic charts are expected to consist of a large high pressure system south of the Tasman Sea, and a series of poorly consolidated low pressure troughs stretching across the Tasman Sea and into the South Pacific and Coral Sea. They’ll each direct some form of easterly wind our way; it’d be better if they were all merged as one single system, but instead we’ll see a number of fetches develop and fade, creating a jumbled mix - in a nice way, mind - of small mid-range E’ly swells for the East Coast.

This should maintain peaky 2-3ft E’ly swells across the coast for both Saturday and Sunday.

However, Sunday we’ll see the arrival of a long range E/NE groundswell generated by a sub tropical low well SE of Samoa over the last few days. Core winds around this low have been recorded in the 50kts range, and there's also a healthy supporting fetch to its south and east, though the enormous travel distance will shave off quite a bit of size once the swell makes landfall.

I’m still expecting occasional 3-4ft+ sets at a handful of reliable, exposed beaches, but there could be breaks of twenty minutes of more between ‘em.

Lastly, the models are showing a small but strong E/SE fetch exiting Cook Strait (between NZ's North and South Island) late Friday that could generate an additional E/SE swell for mid-late Sunday afternoon, though it's unlikely to be any bigger than the aforementioned E/NE swell. Though, with three or four swell trains in the water it's plausible some beaches could see bigger peaky A-frames as they mix in together

Morning winds should be light both days and Sunday afternoon’s nor’easter will likely be a little stronger than Saturday’s, but in general there’ll be decent conditions on offer. 

Next week (April 8 onwards)

Variable winds are expected Monday under a local troughy pattern, ahead of a fresh southerly change on Tuesday. 

Small, long period S’ly groundswells will glance the coast for much of the week, generated by poorly aligned Southern Ocean low pressure systems. At this stage we could see a new swell front reach Sydney altitudes almost every day or the working week, but without any major size it’s not worth getting too excited about. Tuesday’s southerly change may however kick up some bigger S’ly windswell (3ft south facing beaches). 

Despite this, we’ve got a great week of surf ahead. A series of easterly dips in the Tasman Sea will move westwards towards the East Coast generating mid-range swell that will provide a extended period of quality waves for most coasts (swell direction east thru’ east/north-east).

Wave heights should average 2-3ft+ from Monday thru’ Thursday, though early Monday could see larger waves near 3-4ft, being leftovers from both the E/NE and E/SE swells mentioned above (however they'll be inconsistent and easing in size).

Additionally, we’re looking at a bigger embedded pulse later Tuesday and through Wednesday, from the strongest of the E'ly dips (see chart below) that may evolve into a closed low. Surf size could peak up around the 3-5ft mark at exposed beaches at the height of the event, though we'll need to monitor updated model runs for changes. 

All in all, it's shaping up to be another fun week of easterly swell, ideal for any open beachbreak. 

More on this in Friday’s notes.