Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 22nd April)

Best Days: Thurs PM/Fri AM: keep an eye out for a small sneaky S'ly swell. Sat/Sun/Mon/Tues: solid S'ly swell, good winds likely over the weekend.

Recap: The weekend delivered fun surf, with E/NE swells maintaining 3-4ft sets both Saturday and Sunday. A secondary S’ly groundswell delivered 3ft sets on Sunday, and winds were light both mornings with afternoon sea breezes, so conditions were generally clean. The south swell disappeared overnight Sunday and the E/NE swell abated to 2-3ft today with early light NW winds tending moderate to fresh NE throughout the day. 

This week (April 23 - 26)

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The synoptic charts are devoid of significant activity within any of our reliable mid range swell windows. However there’s a plethora of activity on the peripheries. 

Intermittent trades through the Northern Tasman Sea and South Pacific Ocean will generate minor background E/NE swells all week. Exposed beaches may see stray 1.5-2ft sets sets at times throughout the week (perhaps a few bigger leftover sets early Tuesday), though no defined pattern is expected so keep your expectations low. 

A powerful but poorly aligned front and low will track south of Tasmania on Tuesday, and south swell magnets may see some glancing sets in the 2ft+ range on Thursday afternoon and Friday (bigger across the Hunter) however it’ll be a fleeting event and generally unreliable as a go-to swell source. But, keep your eyes open at south swell magnets as there should be a few small waves on offer. 

No major wind pattern is expected this week - the only notable feature is a shallow front around Thursday that’ll freshen NE winds on Wednesday afternoon. But for the most part expect light variable winds and sea breezes each day. Freshening SW winds are expected into Friday afternoon as a strong front clips the southern part of the state. 

This weekend (April 27 - 28)

A strong round of Southern Ocean fronts will drive into the lower Tasman Sea later Friday (see chart below), bringing about Friday's aforementioned SW wind change and heralding a solid weekend sizeable south swell. 

At this stage we’re looking at three seperate fronts crossing the region, and wave heights should pulse around 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches between Saturday and Monday (though, surf size will be a lot smaller at beaches not open to the south). However the precise timings of each pulse is yet to be finalised, and wave heights will be smaller ‘between pulses’, so to speak. 

There’s also potential for a size upgrade depending on where each low reaches maximum strength - the first is currently expected to do most of its work on the wrong (western) side of Tasmania, but the models have been moving around a bit in recent days so we’re likely to see the forecast change a bit as the week progresses. The other fronts are further back in the model cycle so confidence is subsequently lower.

Local winds look like being reasonably favourable until the passage of the third front (around Monday) which is good news. However, let’s take a closer look on Wednesday. 

Next week (April 29 onwards)

The third and final front in this sequence will dominate Southern NSW on Monday and Tuesday, so at this stage the outlook is for elevated surf out of the south for the first half of the week, easing thereafter. There’s nothing off any interest standing out in the long term charts beyond this otherwise.