High pressure is approaching Tasmania with a weak trough expected to linger in the Tasman over the weekend and lead to mostly light/variable breezes. A complex polar low is approaching the NZ corridor and although the frontal progression looks a notch less favourable for swell production up the East Coast we’ll still see S’ly groundswell pulses over the weekend.
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Local swell sources dry up but polar lows better aimed at Pacific targets will send some long period S swell up the pipe over the weekend and early next week before a more subdued outlook takes hold.
The remnants of the weekends low pressure trough are currently being reinforced by a another cold front and expected to form a broad low pressure system in the Tasman in the short term which will supply some fun waves this week with an easing trend into the weekend
An angled trough of low pressure forms off the NSW Coast o/night and quickly moves out into the Tasman Sea. Compared to Wed’s notes windspeeds look a smidge weaker, but the fetch forms a better aligned SE arm around the trough line through Sat.
Strong winds to potential S’ly gales look to develop o/night Fri into Sat as the low pressure trough deepens offshore and a strong high moves into the Bight.
Small swells from this low will ease through the week with some deep polar activity sending more small S swell wrap up the Pipe before a stronger frontal intrusion this weekend brings a sizier S swell with plenty of S wind.
Mixed in with that will be a nice little boost in E-E/SE swell from fetches on the NZ side of the Tasman, holding into Sun, likely even increasing a notch from a broad fetch of winds infeeding into the developing low pressure trough.
The resulting high pressure ridge is leading to deep onshore flows and a trough along the coast is expected to move offshore Sun and form a broad trough of low pressure early next week. That should see improved conditions north of the low pressure trough.
Another week of onshore SE winds with a few favourable windows around rain squalls and troughy areas
In fact, it becomes reinforced by a new high and this peanut high straddling Tasmania will hold a firm ridge along most of the Eastern Seaboard with another working week of SE-E winds, gradually backing off into the weekend. A stalled trough looks to linger off the coast bringing plenty of unstable weather and possibly windows of lighter winds.
Monster high pressure has barely budged since Wed, maintaining a S-SE flow right up the Eastern Seaboard, with a coastal trough ensuring plenty of unstable, rainy weather.