Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf Wed becoming small Thurs with light winds
• S groundswell pulse Thurs PM/ holding  Fri
• Strong front and developing low pressure trough sees sizey S swell and fresh S’ly winds Sat
• Easing swells Sun with improving winds
• Smaller and cleaner on Mon
• Plenty of S swell next week as fronts enter the Tasman

Recap

Mix of swell trains yesterday as a low hovered in the Tasman- mostly S angled (SE-S/SE) with some more E’ly angled swells also in the mix and size in the 3ft range with the occ. bigger set. Conditions were mixed, ranging from excellent with offshore breezes south of Sydney to ruffled and bumpy north of Sydney with some S in the wind. Winds did lay down through the day and conditions workable at a minimum. Size had eased a notch today with 2 occ. 3ft sets and light offshore breezes tending S’ly then light/variable through the day. 

Still a few clean peaks around this morning under settled conditions 

This week (May 15-17)

The coastal low has drifted off and we’re seeing a large high move over NSW before entering the Tasman later this week. That’ll will see settled conditions and light winds for temperate NSW with a weak ridge and SE winds for sub-tropical areas. Frontal activity passing to the south will send some S swell up the pipe.

The headline news is a strong front which will trigger a low-pressure trough o/night Fri into Sat. Backed by a strong high we’ll see very tight coastal pressure gradients with strong to potentially gale force S’lies Sat and a large windy S swell. Further frontal activity early next week looks to supply more sizey S swells. Looks like an active, windy week ahead.

In the short run, enjoy light winds tomorrow with morning offshores extending well into the day before light/variable a’noon breezes. Not much swell on offer with the morning offering up the occ. 2ft set at exposed breaks. The a’noon does show a little promise at S swell magnets under favourable winds as long period S swell fills in- likely offering some 2-3ft sets at exposed magnets through the second half of the a’noon.

The approaching front and a trough should see winds start to tend NW through Fri, tending more W’ly later in the a’noon (we may see a brief NE period before that). Long period S swell offers up some 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches with some bigger 4ft sets likely on the Hunter and other magnets. That swell looks to ease through the a’noon.

This weekend (May18-19)

Strong winds to potential S’ly gales look to develop o/night Fri into Sat as the low pressure trough deepens offshore and a strong high moves into the Bight. If this holds, we’ll see an already energised ocean at first light with windy S swells pushing up the coast. It’s not going to be massive due to the localised fetch and windspeeds but we should see 4-6ft of S swell early, building to 6-8ft through the a’noon with raw and ragged bigger waves (10ft) across exposed S facing reefs and beaches. Fresh/strong S’lies will limit surfing to protected locations with smaller waves apart from a few select reefs.

Sunday actually looks OK. Although we may need to revise depending on how it looks on Fri. Under current modelling the low pressure trough and fetch moves NE quite quickly with size easing off. Better news is a new frontal system approaching sees winds tend offshore through the day. Robust 5-6ft with bigger sets in the morning with W/SW-SW winds is on offer with easing size and lighter offshore winds W-W/SW developing in the a’noon may see some very fun waves through the day. 

Next week (May 20 onwards)

As per Mondays notes, frontal intrusions into the Tasman and below Tasmania will bring S swells most of next week, potentially moderate/sizey in dimension and with accompanying SW-S winds .

Monday should see easing swells and W-SW tending S winds as a front sweeps into the Tasman. Expect 3-4ft of surf at S exposed breaks best in the morning with the land breeze adding the to the SW synoptic flow.

By Tues we should be on the up again, with size building to 4-6ft through the a’noon and holding through Thurs. We won’t put too much stock into these specifics because there is still a chance we could see low pressure develop in the eastern Tasman (as per the EC resolution) which would see better quality S/SE-SE swells from mid next week.

It will be an active week and by the end of it we should see high pressure near Tasmania suggesting continuing S-SE winds into next weekend. 

Like all troughy patterns in the Tasman, especially this time of year, expect revisions as we get nearer to the event.

Check back Fri for the latest updates.