Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd July)

Best Days: Tues PM/Wed: small inconsistent SE swell, light winds. Wed/Thrs/Fri/Sat: small flukey S'ly swells, biggest Wed/Thurs though not much size, mainly showing through the Hunter.

Recap: We saw plenty of fun south swell over the weekend, with south facing beaches reaching 3-4ft late Saturday, and 4-5ft sets pushing through the Hunter. Size eased slowly through Sunday and further into today and conditions have been clean throughout with light winds. 

This week (July 24 - 27)

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Looks like a few interesting small swells to keep us active throughout the rest of the week.

The low responsible for the weekend’s south swell stalled near New Zealand, and a broad southerly fetch on its western flank - whilst not aligned well for our coast - has generated a small new SE swell that’ll fill in over the coming days. 

Model guidance has slowed this down (Friday estimated an arrival late this afternoon on the South Coast) - we’re looking at the leading edge pushing through Tuesday lunchtime across the Sydney region, building slowly through the afternoon with a peak in size expected early Wednesday. There won’t be a lot of size on offer but inconsistent 2-3ft sets are likely at exposed beaches. 

Wednesday will also see a small concurrent south swell from a vigorous front exiting eastern Bass Strait on Tuesday. The fetch will display a little more west than I’d prefer, but we should see occasional 2ft+ sets across Sydney’s south facing beaches, with bigger surf through the Hunter. Winds will be light westerly all day so conditions should be clean. It’s not worth rescheduling your diary for but there’ll be some fun beaches up and down the open stretches. 

Prior to the arrival of the SE swell, expect small residual swells early Tuesday with winds out of the north-west.

Otherwise, the second half of the week looks a little average but there’ll be a few small waves at exposed beaches. Light variable winds on Thursday will swing northerly early Friday and freshen throughout the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. A series of poorly aligned fronts south of Tasmania from Tuesday onwards will generate small levels of acute south swell both days. 

I’m doubtful most beaches will see much, if any action, but reliable south swell magnets - I’m looking at you, Hunter Coast - could feasibly see extremely inconsistent 2-3ft sets. It’s a low confidence event though, as these difficult swell events often bypass the majority of the NSW coastline. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday with the availability of satellite winds. 

This weekend (July 28 - 29)

We’ve got a complex weekend ahead. 

A developing trough over the eastern states later Friday will strengthen northerly winds along the Southern NSW coast overnight, building small NE wind waves for Saturday morning. However, no major size or strength is expected, and winds are likely to veer NW early, rapidly improving conditions. It'll be a short lived event, if it offers anything at all.

The same acute, flukey south swell that *may* pulse Thurs/Fri is also a possibility for Saturday (thanks to the tail end frontal system showing some schtick in the lower Tasman Sea Thursday afternoon) but again, I wouldn’t get your hopes up. 

Otherwise, there’s a chance that the trough will develop a surface low east of Bass Strait later Saturday as it moves east through the Tasman Sea. This may generate a south swell for Sunday though model guidance suggests this won’t be particularly strong nor long-lived. So again, keep your expectations low for any major surf.

Next week (July 30 onwards)

A strong cold front is expected to deliver gusty S/SW winds and building S’ly swells across the region early next week.