Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 25th July)

Best Days: No great days. Perhaps late Monday if a flukey south swell makes landfall (low percentage). Tuesday for small leftover south swell and offshore winds. 

Recap: Tuesday morning kicked off with tiny residual energy from Monday, but the leading edge of a small new SE swell filled in after lunch (peak periods just under 15 seconds), providing fun though very inconsistent 2-3ft sets across open beaches today. Winds have been generally light with good conditions.

This week (July 26 - 27)

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The current SE swell is easing across our coast now, and will be all but gone by Thursday.

In its place, we’ll see very small, inconsistent levels of southerly swell generated by a poorly aligned series of fronts passing just to the south of Tasmania from now through the coming four days. It’s much more zonal (west-east) in its alignment than previous frontal passages, which reduced the size potential and also increases the likely size variability across the coast. 

In short: only reliable south swell magnets will pick up any rideable energy, everywhere else will be tiny to flat. 

Although there may be a few embedded pulses over the forecast period, pining down their precise phases is very difficult. And with no great waves likely it’s not worth spending to much time on the specifics, seeing that so many beaches will be lucky to see a rideable wave at all. As always, the Hunter region usually fares the best so the odd stray 2ft set can’t be ruled out (between extended flat periods). 

Otherwise expect tiny surf across most coasts for the rest of the week with mainly light winds. 

This weekend (July 28 - 29)

An approaching front this weekend will strengthen N’ly tending NW winds through Saturday, and with only fleeting pulses of small south swell on the cards there’s not much to get excited about.

NE tending W/NW winds will reach gale force strength through Sunday as the associated low tracks through Bass Strait but at this stage we’re not expecting any new swell. 

As such it looks like a good weekend for anything but surfing. 

Next week (July 30 onwards)

The aforementioned low is expected to push into the Tasman Sea overnight Sunday, briefly displaying gale to storm force W/SW winds as it exits eastern Bass Strait, however it’s expected to pass quickly to the east. This will result in a brief pulse of south swell at best, which may infect peak under the cover of darkness on Monday night. 

Therefore, expect Monday to start off tiny to flat, but there’s a chance for a late rapid increase in southerly swell as offshore W/SW winds ease in the wake of the low. Late 3-5ft sets are a reasonable estimate for now but major revisions are expected by Friday’s notes. Remember: we may not see much size during daylight hours thanks to the brief overnight peak.

Rapidly easing S’ly swells are then expected Tuesday with winds backing to the NW ahead of another front and low that’ll generate a fresh, though smaller and very acute south swell for Wednesday. This looks like a 60% version of whatever makes landfall Monday (night) so don’t get your hopes up.

Elsewhere, all of our other swell windows are either inactive or have small systems on their peripheries that won’t contribute enough energy to warrant further investigation.

Let’s hope Friday has some more promise on the long term outlook!