Outerknown Fiji Pro - Early Forecast
OK, the Aussie leg is done, Brazil too, now for the trio of events every surf fan longs for: Fiji, J'Bay, and Chopes.
First up, Fiji, with the Outerknown Fiji Pro due to kick off this weekend. The women's that is. The men's event doesn't start till the following Sunday, June the 4th.
Unfortunately for the women there are no significant swells during their waiting period. The first day of the waiting period, Sunday, is likely to be small with a weak mid-period swell in the water. Then from Monday through to to Wednesday there'll be very inconsistent and small groundswell energy providing 2-3ft sets. The long-period energy has been generated in Fiji's far swell window by a weakening front travelling well south of the Australian continent. Not ideal. Owing to distance, the wait for the bigger set waves could be up to 10-15 minutes.
A weak front pushing across the south-east of Australia Monday doesn't look to generate any decent swell in its current form, but a stronger cold outbreak behind it is a little more promising. Unfortunately, the arrival time will be too late for the women's event with the waiting period ending on Friday the 2nd of June.
This swell will arrive in time for the start of the mens waiting period though.
A vigorous low will hug the East Coast, which again isn't ideal, but we could see a good fetch of SW gales aimed in Cloudbreak's south-western swell window. Swells form this direction aren't as common as the usual south-southwest energy moving up through the Tasman Sea and with this we're likely to see lots of tricky wide sets.
The swell is due Sunday next weekend (the first day of the waiting period), but the models are still struggling to resolve the specifics around the positioning and strength of this low.
Beyond this we're looking at a few lay days as the low responsible for Sunday's swell sits in the Tasman Sea, blocking Fiji's prime swell window as it aims swell towards the Australian East Coast.
Later in the waiting period though the models are indicating a more favourable setup, with a series of vigorous cold fronts forecast to project from the Southern Ocean, up through the Tasman Sea towards Fiji, generating large back to back groundswells.
We'll continue to monitor these developments in the comments below though and provide another forecast next week.
Comments
What size are you currently expecting for next Sunday's swell and will it be with good winds ?
How does 6-8ft with a fresh offshore wind sound ?
Swellnets calling 6-8 ft sunday, the peak of the size . How does a fresh ese wind go at cloud break?
SUN 04/06 12am 6ft SE 18kt
2.3 m 15.8s208 (SSW)2.0 m 6.9s137 (SE)
6am 6-8ft: ESE 19kt
2.6 m 15.6s208 (SSW)2.0 m 7s133 (SE)
12pm 6ft+ESE 18kt
2.6 m 14.8s209 (SSW)2.0 m 7s129 (SE)
6pm
6ft+ESE 17kt
2.6 m 14.7s208 (SSW)1.9 m 7.1s124 (SE)
ESE wind is pretty much straight offshore. Well east is straight offshore but close enough
Has that Sunday swell downgraded its forecasted size ?
I cant see much of a storm on the wams this morning .
Hi Kelly! I will make you your breakfast and clean your hut! Everyday if you let me come and watch. I am the real outerknown!
The Tasman Low looks slightly less favourable in alignment for Fiji this week but we should still see a solid kick around Monday. Our model has a peak around 5ft but I think it'll probably push north of this with occasional 6ft+ sets. There'll be a lot more west in the swell direction than usual too. Winds look like they'll be moderate E/SE thru' SE offshore which is great.
What's the outlook for the men's comp? Your model seems to be undercalling the Sunday/Monday swell?
Yeah our Cloudbreak model has always slightly undercalled size but it's actually downgraded this event in the last few days.
The Tasman system is not very well aimed for Fiji so I'd be surprised to see more than 3-5ft from it.
Unfortunately, the long range energy that will arrive concurrently was (partly) generated last weekend before our model was restarted (the early stages of the storm track), so it's also undercalling this source. 4-5ft surf, maybe some occ 6ft sets looks likely at this stage (on Monday). Smaller surf is expected on Sunday, probably 3-5ft. Conditions look pretty good with light to moderate SE winds.
Thanks Ben
WSL are talking up Sunday's swell too.. from their FB page:
"Cloudbreak is forecasted to be 8-12ft and absolutely pumping!!"
Obviously, they mean face height.
4-6ft Cloudbreak is not to be sniffed at.
And now the press release from the WSL says both:
"...to announce the final will take place on Sunday in expected 6-8 foot Cloudbreak conditions",
and...
"Courtney Conlogue (USA) and Tatiana Weston-Webb (HAW), two of the hardest-charging surfers in the field, will battle for the event title in solid six-foot (10 foot faces) Cloudbreak".
In the space of two hours, they've used size references of 6ft, 10ft, 6-8ft and 8-12ft across two different measuring standards.
I know it's pedantic, but they really need some consistency in this space.