Rip Curl Pro Forecast
Wednesday 12th: SW swell to 3-4ft. Light variable winds with SE sea breezes.
Thursday 13th: Easing SW swell from 3ft+. Light N/NW tending W'ly winds.
Friday 14th: SW swell to 2-3ft, with a new W/SW swell for the afternoon. Fresh SW winds.
Saturday 15th: W/SW groundswell to 3-5ft, easing later. Light W/NW tending SW winds.
Sunday 16th: Building SW groundswell to 3-5ft into the afternoon. Moderate to fresh NW winds.
Monday 17th: SW swell to 3-4ft, building later. Moderate to fresh but easing NW winds.
Tuesday 18th: W/SW swell to 4-5ft. Light to moderate N/NW tending variable winds.
Wednesday 19th: Building W/SW swell towards 6ft. Strengthening N/NW winds.
Thursday 20th: Easing W/SW swell from 6ft. Fresh and gusty NW winds.
Friday 21st: Stormy building S/SW swell. Strong S/SW winds.
Though there was a week of lay days in between, the Margaret River Drug Aware Pro started and finished with excellent waves and the swell gods will continue to provide for Bells.
The waiting period begins tomorrow (Wednesday) and AC/DC's Hell's Bells will sound out over a good SW groundswell. This swell is courtesy of activity in the the westerly storm track over the weekend and earlier this week.
3-4ft sets are expected across Bells tomorrow, easing back to just over the 3ft range on Thursday morning as conditions improve in the wake of poor onshore winds the last few days.
However, without the help of a true offshore, tomorrow morning's variable winds won't be able to iron out the residual lumps and bumps. Expect it to be a bit unorganised.
Thursday will be much better as winds swing offshore during the morning and remain favourable into the afternoon while swinging more to the west. This will likely be the first day of competition.
We'll see poor conditions into Friday as an onshore change moves through coinciding with a low point in swell during the morning.
The westerly storm track is currently active to the south-west of Western Australia, and with this some new westerly will build slowly later on Friday ahead of a larger and stronger pulse Saturday morning.
While westerly in movement, the strength of the polar front generating Saturday's swell should produce 3-5ft waves across the Bells Bowl during the morning, easing a touch into the afternoon. Light winds from the western quadrant are likely on Saturday, swinging back onshore mid-morning. With this we may see half a day of competition get underway.
A full day of competition is likely Sunday with the arrival of long-period SW groundswell mid-morning, building back towards 3-5ft. A fresh north-northwest tending north-west breeze will create great conditions all day working around the tides.
Into early next week the outlook gets a lot more interesting.
A classic autumn frontal progression will develop through the Southern Ocean midway through the weekend under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.
The models are converging around the development of a vigorous and elongated polar front extending from the Heard Island region to south of the Bight. This system should move slowly east, closer to Victoria's swell window, resulting in moderate to large levels of W/SW groundswell.
The timing and sized are still fluid, but we're not likely to see wave heights drop below 3-4ft Monday morning, rising from there to the 4-5ft range later in the day and holding Tuesday.
A secondary front wrapping around the backside of the progression should produce a larger SW groundswell for Wednesday/Thursday in the 6ft range, with further activity into the following weekend.
The great thing about this progression is that the persistent frontal activity will help maintain an offshore west-northwest to north-west flow across the Surf Coast, meaning the competition could be wrapped up by Wednesday/Thursday next week.
We'll continue to monitor the Southern Ocean activity and provide running updates in the comments below.
Comments
Wishful thinking willyweather has light easterlys sat and NE alllllll day sun. Screw bells. Waves for the peninsula. But your forecast, swellnet models and Buoyweather are all in agreement. Come onnnnnn willy
If anyone could take the bold stance of predicting the single best day of competition to actually get my arse to Bells to watch , which day would you pick ?
Got to allow a few days to get there though, if you don't mind.
Would love to take the challenge, but your request implies not just a successful surf forecast, but also a guaranteed enthusiastic performance from your favour Pro Surf Celebrities.
And THAT is a big ask at moderate-sized Bells Beach.
I don't have a favourite* - I'm an equal opportunity sycophant.
* Go Seabass !
better viewing on Foxtel, avoid the crowds and get closeups and replays of every turn
I've never seen 90 percent of these people surf and it's Kelly's last year so I may as well try and catch it.
The fucker better still be in it when I get there .
Go Kelly !
( Go Seabass )
Have a punt if you're keen Ben.
Best forecast seen in ages.
The winds seem to have got a lot better over the last 24 hours too. If I was travelling down Blowin I would punt on getting there for next Tuesday. Be less people and that forecasted swell looks pretty schmick for Wednesday 20th plus if they all gone home you may squeeze a few wiggles at winki with a booming SW swell.
And give up on Kelly its over
Cheers MickFree. Sounds like a good plan.
To see a lot of Comp , Sun,Mon,Tues , looks like when you would still see Kelly if he has 1/2 reasonable board .
Hey Blowin, I'd get there for round 1 to see Kelly, that way you've a chance in round 2 & 3 as well, I went to the Q Pro and so glad I did, 'cause I was saying exactly the same, could be the same for Parko and Mick too, go, just go now. Dave can't wait for it.
Anyone been over the Easter weekend ?
Is it doable or a proper nightmare ?
Can the punters see anything or will I be standing on a freezing cold beach watching the back of people's heads ?
Fucken nightmare............ Traffic jams getting in/out and all the good vantage points are taken up by contest infrastructure which seems to get bigger every year. Other than the competitors, this is pretty well reserved for designated'VIP' s, sponsors, industry folk and general scene hangers on. If it's crowded (and highish tide) the average punter needs a pair of binoculars to really be able to see what's going on and yep, you'll be looking at the back of people's heads if you're on the short side. Easter weekend is busy down here so they try and jam as much surfing into that 4 day period that they can.
I can ride my pushy out there in 10 minutes and get in free being a resident rate payer but would much rather watch it live from home on FOX for reasons someone else mentioned. You'll definitely have a better time if it's running from Tuesday onwards with a lot less people around in and out of the water.
Yeah it's great Blowin. Pick a pumping day. Watch from the beach or bleachers up the top. Go for a paddle at first light and sneak a couple amongst the circus. It's a fun experience. If you are hiring a car they are on short supply.
You can see shitloads
Swarthy bloke with a goatee always manages to get a good view midway down the steps. Maybe hang near him?
Forecast for today looks spot on, well done Craig.
Round 1 of the Women, Steph Gilmore's first turn on her first scoring wave (8.67) and we can see the sign of things to come. Coming hard off the bottom she doesn't head sqaure for the lip but arcs out ever so slightly to the steep open face, drops her torso just below her centre of gravity, arms back, and weights the rail through an extended carve that traces 180 degrees with the rail engaged all the way till she's halfway back down the face.
It's the John John turn and I wonder how many times we're gonna see it this comp?
early start easter monday then.. will try to avoid the traffic jam
'The John John turn'.
Up there with the 'Tom Carrol snap'.
You know you've made it when you have a maneuvre named after you.
You should see the "Goofyfoot bograil"
Leaves you speechless
Must be up there with the 'Zen over the falls for absolutely no reason'.
Good for a laugh if anything.